Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

oil makes up a shocking % of total exports for a lot of countries:

https://i.imgur.com/PjAweYx.jpg

not only that, in some of those countries it's also a huge source of government revenue

Wasn't it ME and Russian producers that Trump was so desperately trying to prop up for some unknown reason? (Pee tape)

US oil may be predicated on market making more expensive extraction techniques feasible (my guess why aimless made his comment but i don't want to assume and i'm curious what he's thinking) but middle eastern countries heavily rely on oil to a greater degree by gov and comprising more of their economy a decline would be far more severe in that regard.

why

Fracked oil and shale oil are much more expensive to produce than middle east oil. These make up a very large share of US and Canadian production. US and Canadian oil producers include numerous small-to-mid-sized companies that have limited capital resources compared to middle east producers, which are run by national governments with sovereign wealth funds. The big multi-national oil companies will not crash, but the small-to-mid-sized ones always have folded in droves during past gluts.

It seems to me that instability is so endemic in the majority of the middle east that this one added instability will be absorbed much like the other crises that arise so frequently. The armies will be fed, therefore the governments will stand, albeit shakily.

harder to feed ppl when oil revenue is dry tho

They know enough to feed the army before feeding anyone else.

Word

that bloomberg article is great!

If you don’t already get Levine’s newsletter then you should. He’s very good and very funny!

Do you have to pay for it? I used to read it all the time when I had a Bloomberg account but am too cheap to pay for one just for Levine's newsletter.

Not if you give them your email address.

Found this CNN headline amusing:

"What does it mean when oil prices go negative? No, it doesn't mean the gas station will pay you to fill up."

I'd like to think there were at least a few people out there who were deeply disappointed when they read that.

It was may delivery oil down yesterday. Today it’s June (now in single figures)

hey on the bright side all that cheap gas will get people back to work... right? right???

:P

it's sad when the People put such pressure on a small business! Sorry Mordy.

(I wonder if HARVARD is giving back their $9 million)

ABC News reports:

Ruth’s Chris Steak House will return the $20 million coronavirus small business loan it procured from the government’s $350 billion Paycheck Protection Program, the company announced Thursday.

The PPP was designed to throw a financial lifeline to the millions of small businesses who have seen revenues plunge due to social distancing lockdowns — but the hastily conceived program left thousands of applicants high and dry, after funds were snapped up in less than two weeks.

Shake Shack, another large restaurant chain that got a loan under the program, said earlier this week it would be returning the $10 million it had received, after it was able to raise more than that amount in the equity market.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/facing-furor-ruth-s-chris-high-end-steak-chain-returns-n1190606

Harvard is on my top two list of US enterprises to be seized by the state, up there with Boeing

the end of harvard will be some conservative think tank purchasing it somehow and then installing milton friedman professors of truth

xp - did you go there or ...?

no they just have too many billions of dollars, it's uncouth

also the library isn't open to the public, preposterous

Harvard has an endowment fund of $41 billion, the largest in the world, and larger than the GDP of roughly half the nations on earth.

Ban Harvard. They’re the Yankees of universities

nationalize all universities, make application solely meritocratic and level off tuition at 10k per year
flatten the curve imo

make education more bureaucratic and white!

Like considering the current federal government, do you really want universities nationalized? Really?

I'd clarify "nationalize" as "state/locally mediated," stipulate preferential placement through affirmative action and make college a student opt-in right / continuation of public school in general; turn old malls and prisons into colleges.
next let's discuss my thoughts on gun control.

If you're talking about nationalization, the current federal government isn't really a consideration.

also having an endowment is v. nice but it's not like they're sitting on $41B in cash. much of that money is legally restricted to certain very specific purposes (that prop up our excellent current political/economic system, but hey)

it's not like they're sitting on $41B in cash

yup. there's equities, bonds, REITs, silent partnerships, and a wide variety of other negotiable assets, some of which are comparatively illiquid. I doubt they could raise more than, say, $10 billion in cash if they only had a couple of weeks of lead time to lay their hands on that much.

lol i'm curious just how many non-governmental institutions on earth could raise $10B in cash in two weeks

Welcome to Apple University

Boeing planning layoffs, expects air travel to take 2 to 3 years to return to 2019 levels

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-loses-641-million-in-first-quarter-announces-job-and-production-cuts/

That sounds about right to me.

(I don’t think business air travel will return to 2019 levels)

This morning somebody one one of the jibber-jabber shows said that air travel was likely to become much more expensive in the future, and I was thinking, "Are you sure you know how capitalism works? Airlines are gonna be fucking desperate to fill seats for probably half a decade - this time next year, you're gonna be able to get a plane ticket to California free with a delivery from Papa John's."

well they will run fewer flights presumably, supply can be constrained

Fewer flights and fewer seats on the flights one would presume

and fewer stroopwaffle, fuck

*stroopwafel, fuck

stroopwafels rule

This time next year, no-one is going to want to sit shoulder to shoulder with strangers even not counting the recycled air. If the seating limit drops to 20% of what it is currently, and the costs stay the same, it's hard to see how that works except for government subsidies and/or prices going way back up.

I would definitely fly again given either (a) a vaccine or (b) a positive antibody test result.

Time to start laying more train tracks.

Or just throw a couple of passenger cars on the end of freight trains, no service you have to bring your own food and water.

Taking a cruel pleasure in yahoo finance comments like "Time to load up on cruise ship stocks, they haven't been this cheap in years!" Yup folks, expired milk on sale!

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, April 9, 2020 1:10 PM (three weeks ago) bookmarkflaglink

not a good metaphor tbh, unless you believe no one will ever go on cruise ships ever again.

― sarahell, Thursday, April 9, 2020 1:13 PM (three weeks ago) bookmarkflaglink

https://www.businessinsider.com/norweigan-cruise-lines-warns-of-substantial-doubt-continue-operating-business-2020-5?fbclid=IwAR3ZLvANP49VMRWu30ewWsAkJjnYLWeSz6clogvBV6DNhk9kKGGWjYW4JHc

I've bad news about the current state of meat processing

•Tyson plant in Perry had 730 positive cases, which represents 58% of the employees tested

•The Tyson plant in Waterloo had 444 positive cases, which represents 17% of the employees tested

•Iowa Premium National beef in Tama had identified 258 positive cases, which represents 39% of the employees tested

•The Tyson plant in Columbus Junction identified 221 positive cases, which represents 26% of the employees tested

•TPI Composites in Newton had 131 positive cases, which represents 13% of its employees tested

not going to run the numbers or quibble about "employees tested" but something like an average 25% of meatpacking employees in what is apparently the largest region for that business are out. there are a lot of reasons, including hiring recent immigrants packed into tight housing, responsible beyond the actual plant conditions

undoubtedly meatpacking robots are the proposed solution

They’ve already put limits on fresh meat per customer at my local Safeway; this was like a couple weeks ago.

Restrictions here too