2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

skills at giving Terrorist Fist Bumps (TFBs).

Is March over yet

just another few hundred days left iirc

can you believe we were still talking about p*t* b*tt*g**g less than a month ago

in like a lamb, out like a catastrophe

^^my favorite cedric bixler-zavala line

if you asked me if I'm enthusiastic about Biden, I would say not at all

if you asked me if I would rise out of my death bed to go vote for him I'd say yes

MN right? I can’t say I blame you.

Pete sucked but honestly I think even he inspired more enthusiasm among his flock than Biden's managed. unfortunately his flock was mostly just white-collar dorks who thought Warren was too radical.

I will be utterly lacking enthusiasm when I pull the lever for Biden. Luckily, enthusiasm is not required to complete that rote action. I'm sure this is reflective of many other people.

That's the problem - enthusiasm IS required, because voting is not actually a rote action. You have to give a shit to take time out of your day, to stand in line (sometimes for hours), to argue with a poll worker trying to tell you you're ineligible, etc..

vote by mail

my guess is that the most consistent voters are the least enthusiastic

voting by mail already sorted over here, doesn't do as much for turnout as you might think but it does remove some barriers and we even waived the poll tax postage

the assumption is that you get excited therefore you go vote. but i think it's more like any routine or chore that you're habituated to do. no one is excited about brushing their teeth and if someone tells you they are you can bet they don't do it very often.

yeah like the converse is if you get out to the polls from enthusiasm you aren't voting at all when you aren't enthusiastic about something

certainly some very consistent voters have a civics class enthusiasm for participating in democracy (I mean I guess I do, voting is free and fun!)

I get to fill in a scantron which I otherwise haven't done in quite some time

my theory is that a lot of people will get to november and think "well hey, after everyone telling us this was the end of the republic we survived four years of this asshole and my life is basically the same, so maybe it doesn't actually matter" and that sense could dampen turnout. or at least that *was* my theory a month ago, before, you know *gestures everywhere*

my point is predictions and current polling for a contest this far out are folly moreso than ever before

my guess is that the most consistent voters are the least enthusiastic

Nonsense. The most consistent voters, their vote share far outstripping their actual number, are white evangelicals. They are not grudgingly or unenthusiastically voting Republican (in ever more record-setting numbers)

Re: most consistent/least enthusiastic voters - this is because it is an easy thing they can do on their way to work, and get a sticker.

I've lived in the same county - indeed, mostly the same polling place - for 26 years. I've voted in every election, without ever having a significant problem. That is privilege and I know it.

The voters who must take off from work, arrange transportation, stand in line for hours, explain to a poll worker that they're eligible, etc.? Those are the ones Republicans would prefer to keep out of the electorate, in a coincidence that shocks exactly no one.

i think evangelicals grudgingly vote for politicians who don't share their values all the time!

hardly, the shared value is death cultism

If you just rely on "civics class" habitual voters (which is to say white, educated and economically privileged), Democrats couldn't get elected dog catcher in 80% of the country.

Democratic wins turn on voters who come and go, who are not habitual voters - younger, poorer and POC. The decline in minority turnout and share that went to Hillary (vs 2012) would have won her the election handily.

it's okay to admit that Biden's low-enthusiasm polling is not a good thing. I don't get the impulse to dismiss it.

This is like the not-wearings-masks thing in the other thread...it certainly doesn't help the situation, so what's the point in questioning it?

I definitely think the enthusiasm thing matters when young people and minorities just so happen to live in districts where you have to wait in line for 5 hours to vote

I am always excited to vote regardless of the candidates, but that's in a system with 100% voter enfranchisement. I just like voting.

it would be really neat to have a candidate face trump who generates enthusiasm, so that if/when large swaths of the public somehow think his normalized behavior even accepts acceptability, democrats have something to push back with. but we have biden instead, and clinton before that.

otm (except that many millions of people were genuinely excited to vote for Clinton, and even more were excited to be able to vote for a woman)

at this point can't relate to anyone who doesn't want both trump and biden to drop dead tbh,

Biden can lie down on a settee first and expire gently (after naming Warren or Abrams as VP)

unfortunately the virus has been very very bad at targeting the deserving thus far

Dominic Cummings was only diagnosed yesterday!

I meant *successfully* targeting

though its record of potato-headed fascists already failed us with Dutt0n

(in ever more record-setting numbers)

? white evangelicals portion of the vote has held steady at around 25% for the last 12 years.

maybe that should say "electorate" instead of "vote"

voting Republican (in ever more record-setting numbers)

helps to read all the words

but over the 20 years where white evangelicals have maintained about a quarter of the vote share, their actual real world number has declined, which means they're turning out more fervently (and more for Republicans)

I'm not sure what record you think is being broken there

... the percentage voting Republican

has their real world number actually declined? i could imagine with immigration sure but i'd think generally speaking evangelicals would have a higher birthrate than other groups. (not based on any particular information - just general knowledge about religious fundamentalism, anti-bc/anti-abortion politics and fecundity.)

i think evangelicals grudgingly vote for politicians who don't share their values all the time!

― Mordy, Tuesday, March 31, 2020 11:25 AM (twenty-four minutes ago)

I think this has flipped in the states where all the faith-based crap and Koch-funded initiatives to send kids to lobbyist/policymaker camps have resulted in state legislatures packed with republicans in the midwest. I have no idea how much they believe since I'm not a mind reader, but the rhetoric is a lot harsher than what I'd expect from the average voters

white evangelicals used to vote Republican like Asian-Americans vote Democratic, now they vote Republican like African-Americans vote Democratic.

bc death cult

idk I can't recall a time when every single white evangelical wasn't a diehard Republican, I've never met one that was a Democrat.

(usually because abortion)

In the past decade, white evangelicals as a percentage of the overall population declined by a quarter and Protestants overall by 20% (from over half the population to just over 40%)

the Republican Party decided it was time to more closely reflect the will of their voters. might be time for the Democratic Party to do the same.

xxxp better advertising and coherent (if repulsive) world view imo

they actually used abortion as one of the big emotional wedge issues! polling showed that the majority of evangelical christians were ambivalent to abortion as a legal issue decades ago. the moral majority assholes elevated it as a dealbreaker

the basic math is they make you think you're voting to save babies, when you're really voting to give the chamber of commerce complete power

idk I can't recall a time when every single white evangelical wasn't a diehard Republican, I've never met one that was a Democrat.

In our lifetimes, 70% have been (now 80-85+%) - that was my point, responding to mordy's argument that dedicated voters aren't enthusiastic. White evangelical Republicans are the definition of reliable and highly enthusiastic.

On the flipside, African-American women are very reliable and also very enthusiastic.

The idea that the most regular voters aren't enthusiastic is nuts.

the Republican Party decided it was time to more closely reflect the will of their voters. might be time for the Democratic Party to do the same.

― A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will),

I do wonder what those judges/justices, Obamacare thing, and that bill last week were about.

enthusiastic about voting != enthusiastic about a particular candidate. the latter does suggest inconsistency imo.

“moral clarity” eve if manufactured, is pretty good at turning out voters.

I think there are lots of younger people in the post New Deal, post-Civil Rights era that honestly don’t know what the Democratic Party actually stands for. Not entirely sure I do tbh.

In this era to expect consistency from the Democratic Party is impossible -- too fractious a caucus. Unlike the GOP, the Dems remain a coalition party with genuine conservative and moderate wings; you might say it absorbed the remaining GOP moderates during the Bush era and has accelerated under Trump.