2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

why that worries me: if it's all about donald trump, then the results are subject to the whims of the media and public. it may obvious to you or I that he is criminally incompetent, but that was also true in fall 2016. and there are polls showing that the negatives for trump are sky high, that the enthusiasm for him is concentrated among a base that doesn't make up a majority, and that most people who don't love him actually hate his fucking guts (which makes it hard for him to expand his base). but much of that was true in 2016 as well.

it would be really neat to have a candidate face trump who generates enthusiasm, so that if/when large swaths of the public somehow think his normalized behavior even accepts acceptability, democrats have something to push back with. but we have biden instead, and clinton before that.

all i know is the only democrat who has won during my adult life is barack obama. al gore was a better choice than bush, clearly. john kerry, as much as everyone shits on him as a candidate, was clearly a better choice than bush. h clinton was clearly better than trump, to anyone who isn't a fucking moron (i refuse to back down on my extreme contempt for anyone who even pretends otherwise). but none of them had enthusiasm among the democrats, at least among people my age. the only time people around me were EXCITED about a candidate was 2008 barack obama, and 2016/20 bernie sanders.

at this point can't relate to anyone who doesn't want both trump and biden to drop dead tbh, unfortunately the virus has been very very bad at targeting the deserving thus far

xxp yes: The electorate can be enthused about a stay-the-course candidate, and they can be unenthused about the change-maker.

In this case unfortunately they are unenthused about the former.

yet again, it is entirely about donald trump.

unfortunately yup

km otfm

Biden needs to name his woman VP first, *then* they can both drop dead imo

xps

um it got Boris, Bolsonaro and Tom Hanks

I meant *successfully* targeting.

sometimes I get a bullshitty vibe about the importance and even the idea of measuring "voter enthusiasm" like when sports talking heads go on and on about nebulous concepts like "locker room culture"

I get that but polling re: enthusiasm seems in general to jibe with election outcome

You measure it with polling, just like the “Biden’s 10 points ahead!!!” counterweight above.

putting his awfulness in a million other respects aside, him campaigning for another 8 mos when he can only occasionally complete a sentence or thought on camera might just put a damper on those numbers no matter how much ppl hate trump. that's my feelingm, anyway. if I were in the shoes of a democrat I'd be panicking.

"locker room culture" is closer to "electability"

I will be utterly lacking enthusiasm when I pull the lever for Biden. Luckily, enthusiasm is not required to complete that rote action. I'm sure this is reflective of many other people.

I don't understand "enthusiasm." I look forward to new albums, movies, books by favorite artists; I don't get thinking a politician embodies my hopes. In primaries I vote for candidates who best meet my political goals; in general elections I vote for the Dem. That's that.

#postsverymuchincharacter

I'm sure this is reflective of many other people.

imagine being sure of anything rn. couldn't be me!!

enthusiasm is probably as nebulous as “electability”, but I think I know what Obama had that Kerry and Hillary did not

skills at giving Terrorist Fist Bumps (TFBs).

Is March over yet

just another few hundred days left iirc

can you believe we were still talking about p*t* b*tt*g**g less than a month ago

in like a lamb, out like a catastrophe

^^my favorite cedric bixler-zavala line

if you asked me if I'm enthusiastic about Biden, I would say not at all

if you asked me if I would rise out of my death bed to go vote for him I'd say yes

MN right? I can’t say I blame you.

Pete sucked but honestly I think even he inspired more enthusiasm among his flock than Biden's managed. unfortunately his flock was mostly just white-collar dorks who thought Warren was too radical.

I will be utterly lacking enthusiasm when I pull the lever for Biden. Luckily, enthusiasm is not required to complete that rote action. I'm sure this is reflective of many other people.

That's the problem - enthusiasm IS required, because voting is not actually a rote action. You have to give a shit to take time out of your day, to stand in line (sometimes for hours), to argue with a poll worker trying to tell you you're ineligible, etc..

vote by mail

my guess is that the most consistent voters are the least enthusiastic

voting by mail already sorted over here, doesn't do as much for turnout as you might think but it does remove some barriers and we even waived the poll tax postage

the assumption is that you get excited therefore you go vote. but i think it's more like any routine or chore that you're habituated to do. no one is excited about brushing their teeth and if someone tells you they are you can bet they don't do it very often.

yeah like the converse is if you get out to the polls from enthusiasm you aren't voting at all when you aren't enthusiastic about something

certainly some very consistent voters have a civics class enthusiasm for participating in democracy (I mean I guess I do, voting is free and fun!)

I get to fill in a scantron which I otherwise haven't done in quite some time

my theory is that a lot of people will get to november and think "well hey, after everyone telling us this was the end of the republic we survived four years of this asshole and my life is basically the same, so maybe it doesn't actually matter" and that sense could dampen turnout. or at least that *was* my theory a month ago, before, you know *gestures everywhere*

my point is predictions and current polling for a contest this far out are folly moreso than ever before

my guess is that the most consistent voters are the least enthusiastic

Nonsense. The most consistent voters, their vote share far outstripping their actual number, are white evangelicals. They are not grudgingly or unenthusiastically voting Republican (in ever more record-setting numbers)

Re: most consistent/least enthusiastic voters - this is because it is an easy thing they can do on their way to work, and get a sticker.

I've lived in the same county - indeed, mostly the same polling place - for 26 years. I've voted in every election, without ever having a significant problem. That is privilege and I know it.

The voters who must take off from work, arrange transportation, stand in line for hours, explain to a poll worker that they're eligible, etc.? Those are the ones Republicans would prefer to keep out of the electorate, in a coincidence that shocks exactly no one.

i think evangelicals grudgingly vote for politicians who don't share their values all the time!

hardly, the shared value is death cultism

If you just rely on "civics class" habitual voters (which is to say white, educated and economically privileged), Democrats couldn't get elected dog catcher in 80% of the country.

Democratic wins turn on voters who come and go, who are not habitual voters - younger, poorer and POC. The decline in minority turnout and share that went to Hillary (vs 2012) would have won her the election handily.

it's okay to admit that Biden's low-enthusiasm polling is not a good thing. I don't get the impulse to dismiss it.

This is like the not-wearings-masks thing in the other thread...it certainly doesn't help the situation, so what's the point in questioning it?

I definitely think the enthusiasm thing matters when young people and minorities just so happen to live in districts where you have to wait in line for 5 hours to vote

I am always excited to vote regardless of the candidates, but that's in a system with 100% voter enfranchisement. I just like voting.

it would be really neat to have a candidate face trump who generates enthusiasm, so that if/when large swaths of the public somehow think his normalized behavior even accepts acceptability, democrats have something to push back with. but we have biden instead, and clinton before that.

otm (except that many millions of people were genuinely excited to vote for Clinton, and even more were excited to be able to vote for a woman)

at this point can't relate to anyone who doesn't want both trump and biden to drop dead tbh,

Biden can lie down on a settee first and expire gently (after naming Warren or Abrams as VP)

unfortunately the virus has been very very bad at targeting the deserving thus far

Dominic Cummings was only diagnosed yesterday!

I meant *successfully* targeting

though its record of potato-headed fascists already failed us with Dutt0n

(in ever more record-setting numbers)

? white evangelicals portion of the vote has held steady at around 25% for the last 12 years.

maybe that should say "electorate" instead of "vote"

voting Republican (in ever more record-setting numbers)

helps to read all the words

but over the 20 years where white evangelicals have maintained about a quarter of the vote share, their actual real world number has declined, which means they're turning out more fervently (and more for Republicans)

I'm not sure what record you think is being broken there

... the percentage voting Republican