outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

so where is everybody getting masks? I too heeded the advice that they were not necessary for the public / needed by health workers, so now I don't have one and can't think of a way to get one without going somewhere I wouldn't otherwise go

Well, I hope he’s ok - he posted itt about a member of his choir dying of covid a few days ago xps

I know most of us already do, but I feel like we all need one or more ILX buddies who can check in on us outside of the usual board parameters. Whatever the reason, radio silence at this particular time is disquieting.

old lunch go to the slack it is good

poxyfule.slack.com

clemenza (and others looking at global figures) i'd recommend you read this:

We are looking at national statistics – infections, tests, fatalities, hospitalizations. But these are likely illusory. There really is no national outbreak. There’s a big New York outbreak which still dominates the national statistics and will have its own discrete dynamics. It seems very likely you will have a series of other regional and metropolitan area outbreaks unfolding across the country in the coming weeks. So the national numbers will be misleading. In epidemiological terms the US is more like Europe as a whole, rather than any individual country, especially when states are playing such an outsized role combating the disease because of a significantly distracted federal response.

pretty much all of that applies to the world at large, to an even greater degree

like, when india's cases start ramping up, they're going to become the dominant force (unless it makes a comeback in china first, or things get worse in indonesia)

so where is everybody getting masks? I too heeded the advice that they were not necessary for the public / needed by health workers, so now I don't have one and can't think of a way to get one without going somewhere I wouldn't otherwise go

Ditto. Also I keep getting given scarves and gloves for Christmas and I hate wearing scarves and gloves so I got rid of all of them, bah!

It is also too warm for scarves and gloves, double bah

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LD7Iw_oXnxo

m bison, do I need an invite to slack?

i dont think so, you just sign up w your preferred name and email

A lot of people are making facemasks to distribute. This has several different tutorials. https://getusppe.org/makers/face-masks/

I know people are good about keeping their own space but you can't control other people and they are definitely getting too close and disregarding you. It was impossible in the grocery store to not brush against people even.

The number of new cases in Italy is continuing to fall.
- Thursday: 6,153 new
- Friday: 5,959 new
- Saturday: 5,974 new
- Sunday: 5,217 new
- Monday: 4,050 new https://t.co/MPHgZBc8gH

— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) March 30, 2020

awful numbers in absolute terms still but plausibly a trendline

Fingers crossed…

The direction of travel is the thing. People dying now could have got infected a month ago. It’s good to see something better at least.

Yerac, yea I found the same when I went to Sainsbury’s earlier - it is literally impossible to NEVER be in someone’s 2m space, tho most ppl were trying

yeah, I know it's not necessary to shower/wash clothes after being outside but it just makes me feel better since people seemed to be on my ass in the store. Plus, I just like showering.

here is the direct slack link xpost. https://join.slack.com/t/poxyfule/shared_invite/zt-csm19k0n-P_w0mauC3_sXUXus~TI0mw

the italy numbers are heartening - if they can achieve a reduction even with subpar efforts

Italy has been on lockdown for close to three weeks now so it would be horrifying if cases were still climbing. Even Spain is starting to level off IIRC?

As two or three people have pointed out, I've got to stop drawing inferences from weekend data. Canada's daily cases again took a big jump today.

Worldometers is at least recognizing their reporting of flawed data now:

Due to delayed and incomplete reporting from New York State, we had to make adjustments to yesterday's totals in order to maintain the correct attribution of historical figures. US figures for Sunday, March 29 could still be incomplete.

Instructions unclear, apocalypse imminent:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device

Obviously didn't read the customary warning on a box of magnets: "Keep out of the reach of small children and astrophysicists".

not having enough magnets saved him.

this is happening in Ireland

Update: #Coronavirus: HSE says it is working closely with pharma firms to ensure adequate stock of arthritis/lupus drugs - hydroxychloroquine and tocilizumab - that are now being used to treat critically ill #Covid19 patients - more here: https://t.co/YU7OEB0HGS via @IrishTimes pic.twitter.com/drYB7UUhUU

— Simon Carswell (@SiCarswell) March 30, 2020

so some doctors are using this drug to treat?

It’s doctors are using little a this drug, as a treat

Get it right

noted?

https://www.mediaite.com/news/johnson-johnson-to-begin-human-trials-of-coronavirus-vaccine-by-september-could-be-ready-in-early-2021/

yall, as noted above (i think in this thread): hydroxychloroquine is not a quack treatment, there is reason to believe it may be effective, and actual trials by reputable investigators are underway

one of the first people who was hollering about it in france is likely a quack for other reasons, so that kind of confused the argument

well, that and Trump was yelling about it, too

My cousin was diagnosed with lupus recently ☹️

it certainly would be nice to have a treatment option besides comfort care or ventilators.

There’s a lot of trials going on round the world. (Australia is trialing Chloroquine, plus test on retrovirals etc.)

I think they don’t like to shout too loud about them because these drugs are often toxic and people start hoarding them. Especially doctors it seems, stock of chloroquine are low in Australia because as soon as it became known that this was one possible avenue for a treatment doctors started self prescribing it.

re: vaccination, Israeli press has been reporting a company in Israel would have one ready for testing within weeks. This doesn't seem to be getting much attention.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-coronavirus-vaccine-israel-biological-research-institute-develope-1.8665074

not getting much attention because there have been numerous claims like that in the last few weeks. we're all rooting for all of them to work, and afaict none of them will be ready for the public until june

*june at the earliest

*hope i'm wrong

As soon as June? I thought it was early 2021 at best

I love vaccines but man I would not be enthusiastic about any vaccine offered in June 2020

D'OH

i thought akm's post was about a cheap, widely available test (like on the $1 level, with quick test turnaround times). now i see it's about a vaccine. sorry akm!

Yeah the problem with a vaccine is that you really need to test it properly by monitoring test subjects for a good few months or else you're potentially endangering the health of millions (billions?) of people.

Who's going to risk taking an experimental vaccine when the disease itself only kills 1% of people? Maybe if you're in a super high risk group, but even then would seem like a bit of a weird choice.

An experimental treatment when you're already in critical condition? That's a diffrerent matter.

yeah I'm not sure.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientists-in-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

This indicates they should have it approved in 90 days. Is this a reputable news outlet? I dunno. Haaretz is though, more or less.

90 days would be exceedingly fast for any drug. It might be 90 days to first human trials. and even if they look at mass production in parallel there's still lot of work to get it out there. Even if it is safe you need to have people hang around for a while to understand how long immunity lasts for. There's no real way of accelerating that. Although if there is even immunity for a month or two that can be renewed with another dose that is at least something that would be very useful for people working in healthcare for a start.

And now WHO is doubling down on 'no masks if you aren't sick'

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-masks-recommendation-trnd/index.html

I suspect that is a calculation based on availability of masks, they will have modelled this - it is much worse if healthcare professionals and verifiably sick people don't have masks so where there is a mask shortage you don't want to be recommending well people use masks and deprive those who need them more - as we have seen time and time again the human animal is a selfish arsehole on average. You don't want the marginal benefit of fewer well people getting sick fro other asymptomatic people is symptomatic people are infecting many red people or doctors and nurses are getting knocked out.

When this is all done I'll be interested to see what the real effect of masks are. Societies than mask up on the regular and therefore have a lot of masks around and/or ramped up production and use quickly (Japan, Taiwan, Korea even China) seem to be doing better. Although Japan is seriously behind on testing so I assume has a big hidden problem.

My wife has been sewing masks and my doc recommended using a bandana. It definitely doesn't make anything worse so I would do it.

The WHO has been kind of fucking things up lately though it seems.

I see the CDC may start recommending face coverings for people going out in public.