US Politics, March 2020 — There’s a very good chance you’re not going to die.

How many people will have to die for almost everyone to know someone who died? 100,000?

His coronavirus briefings could be nothing but him pissing into his own mouth and his approval ratings wouldn't fall below a certain floor, even among his fans who are actively dying from his inaction.

trump lied
People “duuuhh”ed

we're already there, honeybunch

I meant, as you might reasonably guess, when the coasts start to be inundated and the mass migrations get going.

oh, Kansas

https://www.yahoo.com/news/gop-pushes-back-kansas-governor-172856752.html

I'm sure TAKING AWAY EVERYBODY'S GUNS is at the top of the Governor's list right now

yeah, we need guns to fight the virus

why not go full nuclear?

Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer…

it's pronounced nukular

I meant, as you might reasonably guess, when the coasts start to be inundated and the mass migrations get going.

I know you don't believe America outside NYC really exists, but there are also other countries available.

xp: Coordinated right wing messaging is still "China virus" finger pointing, and secondarily on the administration's belated travel restrictions, rather than the 6-8 weeks squandered with no executive orders to expedite testing/case tracing/quarantine, or build up the protective gear / ventilator reserves.

Still think we're on a trajectory to 10s or 100s of thousands of deaths, and an economic depression. This Fall, the negative case on how this administration downplayed this crisis and took inadequate action for a couple months (increasing its toll many fold) will be brutal.

https://i.redd.it/imnngu2r3jn41.png

I saw a Dan Crenshaw thing about how (I paraphrase), "We shouldn't be blaming the Republicans, we shouldn't be blaming the Democrats, but the Chinese didn't act fast enough..."

it’ll be half chinese and half handwave-y “no one knew viruses could be hard” bullshit and vary by which part of the tribe you ask.

lol It takes some balls to blame the Chinese for not acting fast enough when the reason we're where we are now is because the U.S. clearly didn't move fast enough.

looks like this isn't really gonna hurt him after all

― frogbs, Thursday, March 19, 2020 3:07 PM bookmarkflaglink

people slightly trusting him on a national crisis means extrapolated to the entire population, there are still a ton of people who might have newly soured on him.

Republicans and deplorables sampled will inflate the thing, but the question wasn't "would you vote for him in 2020?". I think slightly more highly of how he's handling things than I did last week, and still hate the fuck.

Possible some Republicans disapproved on previous polls and then came back home when he acted more Presidential.

his approval's gone down an average of two points in a mere few months, it will continue. two years ago yesterday, he was at 32% approval 59% disapproval. he can go lower.

besides....there are still a lot of people who think this is going to blow over in like two weeks, three weeks, who are suddenly going to sour on this whole sitch quickly when people die and/or people can't leave their house in September.

oh lord

I mean if we can't leave our houses in Sept, I'm going to be pretty damn sour

Goddamn, people, we're at post-Civil War levels of partisanship -- like, 1874 and 1876 levels. No matter how abysmally Trump White House may perform, the number of persuables is too low to matter. This illness will not sink him. It doesn't matter. What will sink him is if we all vote in November.

otm as usual, there's no point in fixating on his approval rating

or watching him speak in public, for that matter

The graph that Sanpaku posted would be much more effective in linear scale rather than log on the y-axis.

We're even past the point of GOP voters saying "fuck this guy" as we saw after Katrina. Trump is the ideal distillation of every GOP president since Reagan -- why abandon perfection? This is what his voters have wanted.

good thing Dem voters want an ancient and diminishing shitbag

man i still don't doubt that his support _can_ be broken (and maybe by this?), and that if it does happen it maybe another “only a f’ing nazi would admit they liked nixon trump.”

mostly, as morbs said correctly- don't need to think too hard, keep kicking at that mf until it is dead dead dead.

obviously this isn't going to "sink him", but the common thread the last few days is "his approval rating hasn't even moved", as an indicator of him being teflon, and...it has moved, and that's what I'm replying too. also, it is a good indicator of the way the wind is blowing leading up to the election. I don't think there are any of us here who aren't planning on voting, and a fair amount of us are probably going to be helping to GET OUT the vote via a variety of means.

Of course he's not gonna sink to 20%, who the hell cares?

fwiw here's Politico yesterday:

Voters overwhelmingly support President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency over the coronavirus outbreak — but are significantly less impressed by Trump’s overall handling of the crisis, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

The vast majority of voters, 84 percent, support Trump’s decision last Friday to proclaim a national emergency, the poll shows. Just 7 percent oppose it.

But amid the fast-moving developments, Trump earns lower marks for his response. A combined 41 percent rate Trump as “excellent” or “good” for his response to the coronavirus — only barely more than the 39 percent who rate Trump’s handling of the outbreak as “poor.” Twelve percent rate Trump’s handling of the virus as “only fair.”

Voters split sharply along party lines: Only 10 percent of Democratic voters rate Trump’s handling of the situation as “excellent” or “good,” compared with 80 percent of Republicans who give Trump those ratings.

The fact that his approval is Teflon shows to me that his approval has nothing to do with him. It’s about his voters. And what they think about other “things.”

it's about how much his voters hate us, basically

his approval ain't teflon. no Republican president is going to ever hit anything below like 30-35% ever. this election is winnable, we just have to accept that there are millions of people whose votes we can't win and move on to the millions we can (and will) win.

turnout in every demographic in our own party is gonna be esp key

who are the 10% of Democrats who think he's done a great job with this

trolls

there are tons of conservative Democrats. or old Dixiecrats taht would probably still vote Wallace

turnout in every demographic in our own party is gonna be esp key

― sorry for butt rockin (Neanderthal)

good thing we're nominating someone who appeals to every part of the democratic base oh wait

agree with n-thal, the “trickier” way to win Nov is to get great broad dem turnout. can either candidate and supporters do that?

the harder way is to get trumpites to disown HIM. anything for that?

a) shame, or
b) actual perception of shared identity, political or social, of lower 98%
c) policy disaster aimed sharply at trumpy wites
d) internal gop decision to sacrifice him

i have other even more unlikely shit, and most anything can happen

you'd have more luck getting a mets fan to root for the phillies. will. not. happen

maga hats = plague caps

not for all of them, for sure. i grew up a mets fan pre- and during straw, and i assure you I have no pref for mets over phils. but i was dumb would choke up like felix millan.

The graph that Sanpaku posted would be much more effective in linear scale rather than log on the y-axis.

more effective to those that don't know what a logarithmic scale is (which is almost everyone), at least

one of the minor low-key bummer things about all this is watching the confusion over linear vs log play out in real time. we need to have a national conversation on "what does a logarithmic scale mean, and why is it a much better option to track exponential growth than linear scales", but we're still trying to reschedule the last nat. convesation on one of the school shootings from several years ago

but yeah, what's crazy is that even the log scale graphs look frightening! it's like, "actually...it is WAY worse than that if you look at the linear version, dude"

Alfred I really appreciate your voice on the political threads, measured sanity

'Trump adopts the greatest hits of the 2020 Dems': https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/19/trump-economy-coronavirus-democrats-136462

his populist heart might actually lead him towards the kind of stimulus packages Obama refrained from in 2009. and we'd be fools to resent him for doing the right thing, but imagine the kind of boasting he'll be doing in the wake

his voters are giving him credit for things he literally HAD to do this week

For now I think I’ll wait to see if he manages to do a good thing first.

Gary Johnson would have done all this shit.

i think the way to spin doing something you literally have to do is to say "when we all really needed him, he was there for us"

like when you finally remove your car from someone's living room, 3 weeks after driving into it on accident. sure, some might say they're mad that it took 3 weeks, but hey, when it really counted, you got that car out of the way

do the right thing when ya tried all else

itll be 75 degrees in NYC tom'w, so let's see if heat does the trick!

yeah I got the flu test last month and it definitely sucks, I thought they were just swabbing my nose and instead jammed it way up into my brain (came back negative, probably had corona virus instead)

― frogbs, Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:52 PM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

negative for brain?

― silby, Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:01 PM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

ok I laughed really hard at this