Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

I just learned the other month that JP Morgan's uncle James Lord Pierpont wrote "Jingle Bells."

no wonder it's basically the coke anthem of the christmas music canon

There is a situation of generational wealth transfer that is not sustainable. That's why Bernie is politically tenable. That's why I short this ridiculous market. The pitchforks are coming. Whether it is right or left. I mean we are already there basically

While I understand what you're saying and what you base it on, your challopy way of making ex cathedra statements makes them less than wholly persuasive.

tanuki?

I think about this study a lot, because millennials are pretty much underwater already and I suspect the next generation is going to have it even worse without a major revolution

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-depressing-chart-shows-the-jaw-dropping-wealth-gap-between-millennials-and-boomers-2019-12-04

well, Aimless, I suppose some would say I have adopted your confident tactics.
This market is a joke and it has been a joke since 9/11 .... goosed by liquidity and then Trump with his tax cut give me a break. Buybacks to pay him back. Well it is coming home to roost now. Realistic P/E multiples

one issue right now is that any baby boomer generational wealth, with the exception of the top economic class, is going to be wiped out by medical costs and assisted living facility payments

i.e. the things that have grown in cost much faster, and will have much larger demand than we have supply

I even remember things being less expensive overall when I was in my mid-20s. when I made 25k a year out of college, that isn't exactly baller-level money, but I was able to amass a decent savings and afford things. friends were paying $500 or less a month in rent.

never shoulda given up the three bedroom condo I was renting for $950. coulda moved my parents into it and given them the master bedroom

it's also a factor of people living longer. Most wealth transfer doesn't happen until after death. Delay death, delay wealth transfer. Not saying that's the only reason -- the immense inflation in educational costs and the trend towards loans vs. scholarships to pay for those costs is another major factor in millennial financial woes. While a lot of my friends rely on academia to pay the bills, I sincerely believe that higher education economics is a bubble, much like a lot of tech startups ... and I wonder if the distance learning that has been ramped up with coronavirus is going to cause a crash/re-evaluation of that industry.

Demographics are gonna crash higher ed soon anyway. Millennials are aging out of college age and there’s fewer zoomers to replace them, meanwhile millennials are gonna have fewer kids later than their boomer parents did.

idk -- it didn't happen when Gen X replaced the Boomers -- speaking as someone born in the year when the fewest babbies were born in recent memory

well, Aimless, I suppose some would say I have adopted your confident tactics.

so, which perma-banned ilxor, returned under a new name, are you?

the end of higher Ed is an issue i take very seruiously , I don;t know if you guys listen to Eric Weinstein's podcast -- because he is alt-right adjacent and I do in fact have a problem with that -- but he hammers this point it is a huge bubble. A huge bubble.

i don't listen to podcasts; i do know that seriously only has one "u" in it

amazon's still unrealistic P/E must be very painful for its investors, knowing that realistic P/E (defined as 4-5x i'm told) is on the way. there are listed companies with no P/E at all! surely none of those will be successful. somebody please let their investors know!

yeah yeah yeah i mistyped it
you should listen to dude. made more bearish than i already was to begin with
you could have retired

for someone new to ilx, you are being super aggro and confident, as if you have been posting here before such that we should be already aware of your expertise?

lol who is this

Ukrainian hemiola

Raccoon

wild guess that it's a white guy.

JUST KIDDING

A huge bubble.

afaics, it's the little boutique colleges that will die off. as for big universities, their main risk would be overbuilding and overcapacity, but I'm not sure that the big institutions overleveraged themselves in the process of overbuilding, because the major part of the debt overhang was assumed by the students or covered by begging from alumni. I presume any reduction in demand there can be absorbed by shedding all those non-tenured staff like hot potatoes. But I don't study their economics, so this is mostly guesswork on my part.

if they ever get it together and do a free, intensive physicians asst. program. I am on that. They need so many.

The American economy is poised for the worst quarterly contraction ever, with a sudden slowdown in economic activity that is more akin to what happened in wartime Europe than during previous American slowdowns like the financial crisis more than a decade ago or even the Great Depression.

had this mind as the market bounced up by 10% yesterday. the disconnection between the reality and the "investor optimism on legislation being passed" is mindboggling

NYSE starting fully electronic trading (closing floor) on Monday.

Look, this market needed to take it's haircut for "irrational exuberance" in my homey Greenspan's terms
Greenspan was probably short and god bless him

hey man what do u think of Chance the Rapper's economic plan

my homey Greenspan

yeah you know what? He kind of is my homey because he warned for years about this
He warned for years about "irrational exuberance"
But pile money into your 401K, tough guy. Do that.

that didn't rhyme

missing a bar

boo

Alan Greenspan is a sober individual who gave you all a warning 20 years ago. I don't think even he can believe how stupidly irrational the market got. Well, the liquidity injections were unprecedented.
But it is time to pay the fiddler

I miss gabbneb

I'll show u a "liquidity injection"

somebody should tell people who bought stock 20 years ago how fucked they are.

preferably a sober individual

well as we know Chief Kyiv "hates being sober"

ha, no you are right Sufjan ... but this is of course thing ... the way to make money is trade both sides ... not be some cheerleader... yeah man I made a mint on AMT .. check that long out... but I short the shit out of this economy that was always teetering on the brink of an exogenous event that wouldd finally bring the multiples down to earth ... something that is realistic

Ellipses Boi

whatever Neanderthal I like you I am a metalhead too

I just saw Autopsy and Professor Black last week so don't @ me

but this is of course thing

yeah it is a "thing" el tomboto ... to trade both sides
that is how you make money .. that is how you provide for your family
Short this market when it gets irrational

tell us about your family

Short The Market - Peter Gabriel

for my family, "el tomboto" what i did was short the SPX
very easy thing to do. well, you have to have a margin account.
i hope you all have margin accounts. or maybe you listen to "yerac" for investment advice lol
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=SPX&insttype=Index

I short the market
But I did not short the SPX

iirc you have to provide proof of a margin account when signing up for ilx

I photocopied someone else's, shh, don't tell the mods