US Politics, March 2020 — There’s a very good chance you’re not going to die.

I do more or less agree with those two scenarios but you're not really factoring in how bad the Dems have been through all this as well, nominating a senile old man with bad politics of their own to "unite the party", inevitably leading to progressive voters being much more alienated now than they were in 2016. Americans are going to get cut a check and Trump is absolutely going to take full credit for it, and the media is going to give it to him (how much did they slobber over him yesterday for not lying his ass off for once?). by November the economy *should* be rebounding to some extent and things will look "good", at least compared to where we were over the spring and summer. don't get me wrong I think you're right, Trump looks incredibly beatable right now, but if there's any political party on the planet that can bungle an easy layup welp

The 2 most critical points that Trump has flaunted in his presidency are:

1. The Economy/Stock Market
As of today, all market gains since he's become president have now been now erased.

2. Low Unemployment
No immediate numbers yet, but I can imagine we will soon see the highest levels of unemployment in a very long time... pure speculation on my part.

Biden's gonna beat him like a drum iirc

latest aid package now looking more like $1 trillion

I would wager there's a majority in the Senate that is against an airline bailout

(maybe not a majority in the GOP)

the market will surely rebound by November, right?

why are you looking at me like that??

I wonder what would happen if Biden went full fifth grader and started calling him "Sleepy Donald Trump?" And any time Trump insults him, he literally does the same thing back to him. Like this scene from Community:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YClAMYTEuZ0

the second biden does that, we are officially in a world that is worse than idiocracy

also important to point out: Trumps approval rating has, thus far, not taken a hit at all (in fact, it's slightly upticked recently). it's been widely known for at least a week now that he's utterly bungled this - you would think it would show up in the polls by now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The Dow has now fallen to what it was the day Trump took office, wiping all the gains of his presidency.

— Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt) March 18, 2020

Trump should put all of his money into the market.

Trump's approval rating isn't going to drop

unless his supporters die off in large numbers, which I suppose is possible

So Trump ordered HUD to cease evictions and foreclosures through April.

For evictions, that wouldn't stop any old landlord from eviction, right? Just low income housing rentals?

I can't imagine many courts are going to willingly hear eviction proceedings regardless, but my fear is despite this, that some asshole landlords will attempt illegal self-help evictions like changing the locks or seizing renter's property, and that police won't come out to demand that they let the tenant back in due to the health risk.

Or that a tenant won't be able to timely sue in small claims if that is done

Trump's approval rating isn't going to drop

exactly, which is why I don't think this is gonna be an easy election. GOP voters are **motivated**. the Dem voters who will need to turn out in big numbers are, thus far, not, and running a senile old man without a single identifiable policy proposal is not gonna help

uh have you seen the turnout figures in the last three weeks, especially among African American voters? I realize many of you use these threads as therapy, but many of us most disadvantaged have never thought any election easy.

oh I think Dems are pretty motivated. Primary turnout has *increased* over 2016 even in the states voting during an epidemic

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/18/21184957/vote-by-mail-tuesday-primaries-turnout-florida-illinois-arizona

But these people don't matter b/c they didn't vote for Sanders and Warren, see. All is lost.

if this primary has (re)taught us anything, it's that Sanders voters (and non-voters who said they were gonna vote for Sanders) think they are the only voters

oh bullshit

Trump's approval has already started dropping. Not in major fashion, but two points in both directions over the last month.

44% is not his floor. Remember, he had approval ratings as low as 32% and as high as 60% in many polls. And I don't mean outliers. His approval rate was consistently below 40 for a prolonged spell a few years back.

Prior to the tax reform, he was floundering, and that tax reform bought him a bump in his approval that has been more or less permanent.

However, if the stock market continues to tank and we hit a recession? He will still have the deplorable vote, he will still have the rich vote, he will also keep some people who stupidly say none of it was his fault, but....

The wishy-washy independents will outright jump ship. It'll be a while before it reflects in his numbers as many might be giving him the benefit of the doubt, but if we hit a prolonged recession, enough Indies will peel away that he could be heading into November sub-40.

This isn't a mere scandal that can be forgotten. No American is going to forget what we went through this spring and summer. Not everyone will blame him but... he'll lose some support permanently. He doesn't even need to dip that badly amongst Republicans.

ah but wait until they get those $1000 checks

every news story about turnout should come with three things

1) an accompanying population pyramid of the state, and if you really want to get fancy with the math, a comparison of how far off the voter demographics are from it
2) a reminder that we have a massive fucking confounding variable right now re: turnout
3) acknowledgement of early/absentee/mailin voting, and ideally demographics of that (particularly important with #2)

as high as 60%? when? xxp

as high as 60%

CITATION NEEDED

AFAIK he has never touched 50% since being elected. But if you've got a link, by all means share it.

Xxxxpost I've been watching his approval every day for 3+ years. He's been much lower below, and anybody who isn't a deplorable or a Republican isn't going to magically forget the months we spent in quarantine.

People will differ on whether it was his fault, but unless you think no Republicans, Trump Democrats, or Independents are going to react angrily to this, I don't see how you think he'll keep where he is

Remember, he had approval ratings ... as high as 60% in many poll

wtf are you talking about, he's never cracked 50%

Sorry. I meant disapproval ratings as high as 60. Approval as low as 32, disapproval as high as 60

get with it frogbs, having policies is the old politics

oh I think Dems are pretty motivated. Primary turnout has *increased* over 2016 even in the states voting during an epidemic

fwiw the reason why I say things like this is because I've been assuming we'd spend the summer and fall talking about nothing but Burisma and Biden's long line of "gaffes" but I guess that's probably not true any more

At one point, per RCP, his average disapproval rating was 58%, and his average approval below 38%. He was -20% or worse for a while til they passed that tax reform.

The $1,000 will maybe soften some voters but some of these voters will STILL wind up on their asses. There is a significant portion of the populace that will vote for him regardless, but...not 45-50% worth.

If unemployment increases....it will have an effect

If people lose their homes even despite the measures and 1k checks..they will blame someone.

eh I was being facetious (I think?)

I've been assuming we'd spend the summer and fall talking about nothing but Burisma and Biden's long line of "gaffes" but I guess that's probably not true any more

we won't spending all summer talking about Burisma, but the right certainly will. especially once the senate investigations start up

unless we don't think lindsey graham et al wouldn't stoop so low to carry out the president's orders

In all seriousness if anybody does know the answer to my HUD question above, please lmk

I think there is a good chance Trump will lose in November, but I think there is a 0% chance he will accept a loss. He'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming out of the Oval Office. If coronavirus has *any* impact on voting in the general (eg some states implementing widespread voting-by-mail), he will use that as an excuse to invalidate the election. The Senate will support his power grab in any way they can, and somehow we'll have the Supreme Court deciding who won.

Senate not really going to have much ability to do that.

It would require a massive undertaking well beyond Trump locking himself in his office and Senators nodding their heads in solidarity.

Plus who knows how excited about this job he will be after the hell his life is about to become for the next six months

he will use that as an excuse to invalidate the election. The Senate will support his power grab in any way they can, and somehow we'll have the Supreme Court deciding who won.

I love when ppl say things like this without bothering to look up how presidential elections actually work.

states validate the elections, the executive and legislative branches have zero input into it.

(the FEDERAL executive and legislative branches, to be clear)

Precisely.

If the logic is "well they'll usurp authority they don't have", then we're in fanfic territory

I do like the idea of Trump locking himself in the Oval Office and then architects sealing him inside a wall so he dies in there.

And the smell is noxious but it is left as a reminder of how foul his Presidency was

"well they'll usurp authority they don't have",

frankly, this will require the army. and yeah then we're either in actual fascist hellscape/fanfic territory (take yr pic)

when I hear theories like that, I'm forced to give some credence to "Trump Derangement Syndrome"

like I think the thing that has 0% chance of happening is Trump being allowed to "not accept his loss"

agreed, especially since the minute he loses the election everyone in the GOP outside of like Steve King is gonna turn their backs on him

frankly, this will require the army. and yeah then we're either in actual fascist hellscape/fanfic territory (take yr pic)

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, March 18, 2020 1:57 PM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

when I hear theories like that, I'm forced to give some credence to "Trump Derangement Syndrome"

― A True White Kid that can Jump (Granny Dainger), Wednesday, March 18, 2020

and reading about these scenarios and others on these threads triggers Soto To Be Deranged Syndrome.