US Politics, March 2020 — There’s a very good chance you’re not going to die.

Wisconsin, but they have cheese barriers that catch the disease

yeah I think about my small hometown, out in the prairie, might be 15,000 people in the whole county, so less likely but if they by chance got it their medical resources are for shit

Broward is the county in FL that has the cluster infections. My county SEEMS milder but who knows for sure.

Probably going to explode statewide thanks to Clearwater Beach inexplicably staying open

They also know that if they begin with "hey, you lying motherfucker, why did you just transparently lie about this thing that you always lie about?" then they won't get called on in future.

Agree. You can't really argue in the middle of the press conference for the reason YMP spells out. There will be ample follow-up later, when that clip gets played a thousand times on CNN tonight side-by-side with stuff he said two weeks ago. At yesterday's briefing, I was pretty sure that's what that one reporter was up to when he asked Trump to rate his performance (the final question, I think)--just getting that on the record, to be used endlessly.

(Whether it ultimately matters, that's always an unknown with Trump.)

so long, fucker

BREAKING: Former Congressman Duncan Hunter was just sentenced to 11 months in federal prison. Read the CREW complaint that kicked off the investigation: https://t.co/HAJcYqj5J8

— Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) March 17, 2020

and we all pantomime blowing vape smoke in his face.

my nameshame fury is irrational but so fucking real at that evil bastard.

That's fuckin right:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/488061-mcconnell-says-senate-will-pass-house-coronavirus-bill-without-changes

rmde @ Blobfish takin a weekend break before caving though. Although I suppose the events of the last few days are probably what forced his hand.

Senate GOP pushing back against airline bailout (good) and check payouts (bad - fucking Huckleberry thinks it's just "throwing money away" cuz no one actually needs money to buy, like, food and pay rent and shit)

If deaths climb through November, no one will remember a symbolic bill written by Dems with no chance of passage. However!

Sens. Michael Bennet (CO), Cory Booker (NJ), and Sherrod Brown (OH) drafted a letter to Senate party leaders Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer calling for immediate $2,000 payments to all adults and children in the US below a certain income threshold ($90,000 for singles and $180,000 for couples is one number I’ve heard floated by sources familiar with these discussions). You can read their whole plan in the appendix to the letter here.

Under the plan, if the US is still in a public health emergency in July, Americans would get another $1,500 each. If the same is true in October, everyone would get another $1,000. If the public health emergency is over in either July or October when the Treasury secretary does his quarterly check-in, but unemployment has increased by a single point, the checks still go out. If unemployment rises by half a point, the checks are cut in half, but they still go out.

Americans could get as much as $4,500 per person, or $18,000 for a family of four, if all the payments outlined in the plan go out.

But, sure, Tom Cotton outfoxed them.

In a 27,000-member private Facebook group for first responders who support President Donald Trump, firefighters and paramedics have posted thousands of comments in recent weeks downplaying the coronavirus pandemic that they are responsible for helping to handle.

Posts in the group, which is called IAFF Union Firefighters for Trump and has been endorsed by Trump, scoffed at the seriousness of the virus, echoing false assertions by Trump and his allies comparing it to the seasonal flu.

“Every election year has a disease,” read one meme, purporting to be written on a doctor’s office whiteboard. “This is a viral-pneumonia being hyped as The Black Plague before an election.”

https://www.propublica.org/article/facebook-firefighters-corona

someone light them all on fire

how long until Trump says he deserves his term to be extended cos his 2020 was wasted by a "foreign flu"

China has kicked out the entire prestige press corps (NY Times, WaPo, WSJ) because of Trump's 'CHINESE FLU' comment apparently.

Yeah. Which will force Trump to come potentially really funny/awkward "they may be fake news/worst press/liars but they're OUR fake news/worst press/liars" twisting and turning.

come=some

I probably dropped this in the primary thread, but Dan Lipinski here, a DINO if ever there was one, at last lost a primary challenge from the left, Marie Newman. She's pretty much guaranteed that seat. I am curious if and hopeful that Lauren Underwood and Sean Casten hang in there come November. Underwood is facing Jim Oberweis, a professional asshole whose family runs a prominent dairy/ice cream company. He's run for various offices over the years - Governor, Senate, he's currently a state senator. Fingers crossed he does not get into the house, because he has been nothing if not consistently horrible.

This is how it's supposed to work: knock someone out who's more conservative than the district

coronavirus and trump: wild speculation

in speculating wildly, i am making these assumptions:

- i assume cv is going to proceed more or less as most expect it to, now - an ongoing crisis for the next several months, at least, with a vaccine not readily available until early 2021 at best.
- i assume that the general public is going to get fed up with this situation very quickly
- i assume that conservative voters are going to be even more fed up, even more quickly, due to their long-ingrained resistance to taking global problems and institutions seriously.
- i assume that conservative voters are now, and have been, totally bad and crazy and very susceptible to disinformation campaigns, and also have a ton of guns and ammo

if this is the case, it seems like there are two likely scenarios for November:

1) trump will continue his posture of the past few days - trying to take the virus seriously, or at least as seriously as he can manage, using his weird hypnotizing monotone sleepy serious voice and following consensus guidance and advice on how to handle the pandemic. he will get crushed in november. half of the country or more already hates his fucking guts for eternity. the support he gets from his base would be frayed by the constant drumbeat of bad news, recession, and most importantly, the feeling that trump isn't standing up to the international community and putting america first. trump only makes sense when he's trying to be loud and dominate everyone and everything else around him. a sober, normal response to coronavirus, working closely with experts and the international community, etc, would not play to his strengths.

2) trump is going to get frustrated and fed up with his inability to do much beyond serving as a daily bearer of bad news and warnings. he will turn his rage against his perceived enemies. in his first sentence in the press conference that just started, he referred to it as "the Chinese Virus". i expect more of that. he also just predicted "a complete victory, total victory", over coronavirus. what does that even mean? what is a total victory over coronavirus? regardless, i expect more of that, along with disinformation campaigns aimed at his own voters, to convince them that we are winning, or at least doing better than everyone else. *godspeed you black emperor music fades in* i think this could lead to violence and chaos. it's hard to imagine trump NOT choosing to side with those who are fed up with the situation and their lack of agency, especially when the rightwing doofuses of the world start spreading disinformation and putting pressure on him to align. honestly i have dark thoughts about this. but in the end, i think it leads to an absolute crushing defeat for trump in novemember, OR...uh, civil war pt 2. just throwing that out there

this has been your pointlessly wild speculative political fiction post of 3/18/20

Good morning!

KM what are your thoughts on alienating the one non-white minority group you actually do sorta okay with in an election year?

by the way he is getting called out as a racist, right now, in the press conference

reporter just called him out on calling it "Chinese Virus". he doubled down, even as the reporter asked if everyone standing behind him also supported using the racist term

Ugh at that last comment--glad someone was specific about the consequences of "China's virus."

xp frogbs

you mean Trump alienating asian-american voters?

the race-baiting plays directly into bleak scenario 2) above. we have a president who repeatedly and unapologetically is trying to rebrand it as "Chinese Virus", even as asian-americans are already getting discriminated against across the country by ignorant fucks. he's egging them on, knowingly or not. we are only like 2-3 weeks into this thing. let it all marinate for a few more months, and it could get very dangerous. what if, for example, a chinese-american person breaks a quarantine and causes another outbreak, and it blows up as a cause célèbre for the alt-right to rally around? what if trump starts using ICE to provide immediate "results" that he can trumpet to his supporters?

he's egging them on, knowingly or not.

I'd say 'instinctually'. He knows he is doing it, but it is reflexive.

just now:

q: tom cotton has been saying china should be punished for coronavirus. do you agree with him?
trump: tom cotton, good guy, etc etc. many people are saying the same thing. "we'll see what happens"

q: do you believe they are _inflicting_ this on our country?
trump: i don't believe they are inflicting. i think they could have given us much more notice.

Jesus--this disastrous press conference will really help.

Follow Sanders' advice: just don't let him speak anymore.

I do more or less agree with those two scenarios but you're not really factoring in how bad the Dems have been through all this as well, nominating a senile old man with bad politics of their own to "unite the party", inevitably leading to progressive voters being much more alienated now than they were in 2016. Americans are going to get cut a check and Trump is absolutely going to take full credit for it, and the media is going to give it to him (how much did they slobber over him yesterday for not lying his ass off for once?). by November the economy *should* be rebounding to some extent and things will look "good", at least compared to where we were over the spring and summer. don't get me wrong I think you're right, Trump looks incredibly beatable right now, but if there's any political party on the planet that can bungle an easy layup welp

The 2 most critical points that Trump has flaunted in his presidency are:

1. The Economy/Stock Market
As of today, all market gains since he's become president have now been now erased.

2. Low Unemployment
No immediate numbers yet, but I can imagine we will soon see the highest levels of unemployment in a very long time... pure speculation on my part.

Biden's gonna beat him like a drum iirc

latest aid package now looking more like $1 trillion

I would wager there's a majority in the Senate that is against an airline bailout

(maybe not a majority in the GOP)

the market will surely rebound by November, right?

why are you looking at me like that??

I wonder what would happen if Biden went full fifth grader and started calling him "Sleepy Donald Trump?" And any time Trump insults him, he literally does the same thing back to him. Like this scene from Community:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YClAMYTEuZ0

the second biden does that, we are officially in a world that is worse than idiocracy

also important to point out: Trumps approval rating has, thus far, not taken a hit at all (in fact, it's slightly upticked recently). it's been widely known for at least a week now that he's utterly bungled this - you would think it would show up in the polls by now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The Dow has now fallen to what it was the day Trump took office, wiping all the gains of his presidency.

— Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt) March 18, 2020

Trump should put all of his money into the market.

Trump's approval rating isn't going to drop

unless his supporters die off in large numbers, which I suppose is possible

So Trump ordered HUD to cease evictions and foreclosures through April.

For evictions, that wouldn't stop any old landlord from eviction, right? Just low income housing rentals?

I can't imagine many courts are going to willingly hear eviction proceedings regardless, but my fear is despite this, that some asshole landlords will attempt illegal self-help evictions like changing the locks or seizing renter's property, and that police won't come out to demand that they let the tenant back in due to the health risk.

Or that a tenant won't be able to timely sue in small claims if that is done

Trump's approval rating isn't going to drop

exactly, which is why I don't think this is gonna be an easy election. GOP voters are **motivated**. the Dem voters who will need to turn out in big numbers are, thus far, not, and running a senile old man without a single identifiable policy proposal is not gonna help

uh have you seen the turnout figures in the last three weeks, especially among African American voters? I realize many of you use these threads as therapy, but many of us most disadvantaged have never thought any election easy.

oh I think Dems are pretty motivated. Primary turnout has *increased* over 2016 even in the states voting during an epidemic

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/18/21184957/vote-by-mail-tuesday-primaries-turnout-florida-illinois-arizona

But these people don't matter b/c they didn't vote for Sanders and Warren, see. All is lost.

if this primary has (re)taught us anything, it's that Sanders voters (and non-voters who said they were gonna vote for Sanders) think they are the only voters