Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

https://i.imgur.com/HNfXfZp.png

this is why i'm hesitant to think that italy is approaching any sort of peak for new cases. their growth rate is in the same range as many other countries right now.

(a growth rate of 28% per day will double the cases every 3rd day. a growth rate of 42% per day will double the cases every 2nd day)

(((((of course, lack of testing availability damages the integrity of this kind of analysis, but it's the best thing we have at the moment, i think)))))

OOPS! WRONG THREAD

still applicable!

lol, true!

...and so in conclusion, i must recommend not buying italy stock right now

the market skyrockets today on news of...uh,

um

wasn't there an announcement recently of another $500,000,000,000 getting pumped into the banks

or i suppose there's also the $850B legislation deal currently being watered down by republicans negotiated

but in general, it's just like...much of the economy is going to be shut down for the next month, minimum, and it's hard to believe it won't be longer than that.

like this, look at this image from the report that was so scary it actually seems to have affected trump and made him realize he had a bigger problem than he thought:

https://cdn.talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Screen-Shot-2020-03-17-at-9.49.26-AM-804x478.png

that's the worst case scenario - unmitigated - leading to 2.2M deaths in the US, or 510K in GB. but remember, worst case also means "quickest" - it means we reach the peak more quickly, overwhelming the hospitals, etc etc. and even in that scenario, the peak in the US is sometime in June.

obviously we will try to do something to mitigate, which means that curve will be flatter (a good thing) but also longer in duration.

it's just hard to look at all that and think it's a good opportunity to buy low right now. if anything it seems like there's more tanking to come.

but what do i know? i'm no jim cramer

sorry, here's a link to the Imperial College report i was referring to above:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eI26PNh5h_kHwB9msK2uIma42YOsRH4b/view

Well, if someone is personally trading (not investing for a retirement) you need a plan. You could very well buy XXX company and wait to get 10-15 whatever% realized gains and get out and will likely get it at some point because of the volatility. Or you could really love company YYY and you can buy 1/3 of the total amount you want now, wait and see where the market goes. Buy another 1/3 if the company goes down further (whatever percentage you want) to average down. And you know you won't sell it for X number of years so you are fine with the purchase in these times. Nothing is for certain.

yeah, that's true! i'm making the old mistake of treating the market as some sort of general indicator of the economy, or how investors think the economy is doing at the moment. but you're totally right, i'm sure a lot of the fluctuation is just people trying to make smart buying decisions. i believe bank of america sent out a note earlier today saying that it was a historic buying opportunity

it's not historic. It just hasn't happened in a while.

banks make money by churning fees. they need the activity.

bank of america sent out a note earlier today saying that it was a historic buying opportunity

I can see it now. Some altruistic bank exec was sitting in her office and thought, "how can I sit here, trying to do the bank's business, when all I can really think about is the possibility that our customers might not be awake to this historic buying opportunity in the stock market?" So she dashed off that email on her break time, then went right back to work with a smile on her lips and an easy conscience.

What is infuriating about all this is, no matter what measures are taken, no matter what is done, millions of people are looking at a reduced quality of life, more jobs, longer work hours, later retirement.

We act as if it's this uncontrollable thing, but the richest among us will still live comfortably and still have more money that they could spend in a lifetime. We'll have enough food that will still not make it to hungry families, housing or room for housing to be built, but these houses will sit unfilled and people will pack in overcrowded homes or become homeless.

All despite increasing automation and less need for manual labor. Our system of capitalism isn't compatible.

I'm moving to another country when things are contained. Who wants to split a villa?

I am always up for that. Twice I tried to get friends to go in on 2 different buildings in ny and live communally. It's hard to get people to commit to untraditional things or change.

I'm almost certain that the "joke" my mother used to make about living on the other side of a duplex with me is going to happen. It was impossible for years since they lived 900 miles away but at this point if I get them in something with reduced rent or don't charge them rent, Mom can cook for me and we're all happy.

California is talking seriously about UBI rn

My county qualifies for economic disaster assistance ...

i think people should work if there is a need (not a manufactured need, most jobs are bullshit) or if they want to work. I am totally on board with UBI forever.

Honestly, in my "bernie bubble" I don't know how seriously they are talking about tbh. The need for people to assemble and socialize and experience arts and culture and entertainment is a real need, but is currently suspended, and that's what is devastating my social circle atm.

i see talk about it here too cuz romney brought it up (???). i wonder if it will actually happen. would be huge for me since i lost my job just before all this shit hit the fan.

Romney was not the first to propose it, House Dems had floated a $5k figure but no one cared about such a proposal until it garnered GOP support

cool thanks

and of course GOP supporters (Romney, Cotton) cut that figure to $1k

I suspect omar's tweet (which is on the other thread I guess?) about Pelosi objecting to it is bs seeing as how it wasn't reported/documented anywhere else and has some significant hedging language ("essentially shot it down" could mean a lot of things)

xps

just seems like a deliberately bad faith reading

ok it was $6k figure originally: https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/house-democrats-propose-sending-checks-of-up-to-6000-to-help-ease-workers-pain-curing-coronavirus-pandemic/

note that story makes no reference to Pelosi opposing it

i hope you're getting paid by the dnc for this shit

Yerac should be v upset about blue apron's stock rn

Are people going to really start using Blue Apron again because of the virus? Color me skeptical.

as long as they think they are until I sell out of it, it's fine.

i hope you're getting paid by the dnc for this shit

for reading things? yeah ok

how dare I accurately document legislative proceedings

I don't have any love for the DNC, but I know having nuanced views annoys the dogmatic

Who can afford nuance

all those fucking nuance resellers on amazon.

lol

Perhaps something that doesn't need to be discussed at the moment, but are any of you able to easily explain to me why you feel okay participating in the stock game? I am 100% asking as someone who irresponsibly knows very little about it and genuinely wants to know the answer. I feel like I'm missing something.

I hate money for money's sake, and only see it as a tool to convert into housing, food, beer, clothes, etc. If I have disposable income, I want to get rid of it. It's like subconsciously I don't even feel comfortable having it sitting in my account doing nothing.

I've always felt like buying shares in companies is essentially participating in capitalism and furthering the corporation's stranglehold on the way the world works. My wife is annoyed with me because she thinks because I am very successful at things like fantasy football while having comparatively very little knowledge of the NFL but am able to understand "game theory", the way the numbers work, able to make good predictions and find "market inefficiencies". I'm not sure it translates but she thinks it does. I am just so turned off by corporations that I want nothing to do with them besides enrolling in work 401Ks when they basically auto-enroll me, trying to save me from myself. Maybe the answer is you don't like the system but if that's the hand you're dealt, you're going to make the most of it?

I respect all of you and do not intend this to come across as passive aggressive or trolling. I am willfully ignorant of this stuff and have been following this thread because I'm worried about the economy.

I could probably write more later, something NUANCED, when I have time.

But you could also take part in ethical investing. There's a lot online about it. If you are kind of wavering on taking action somewhere.

Also, I grew up working class, daughter of military and an immigrant. I don't like any of the systems I've been dealt. But I can adapt while and still know myself.

you can do ethical investing with your mutual funds etc. too

nobody needs to play the game of buying and selling individual equities unless they're willing to basically just have fun at the casino, as Yerac has suggested

SA, are you in the US or another country? We have like... no retirement income options that aren't somehow based in the market. You could go full-on with bonds, but successfully growing your nest egg is pretty much pinned to a return that beats the interest rate.

A large percentage of the population has no retirement account and is going to be drawing Social Security, or if they're lucky, union benefits, but if you're able to save for retirement that's about it. And once you're in the system with your 401k, it's not really a moral or logical jump to accept investment in stocks.

whoops, missed the 401k part toward the end of your paragraph

since the super-rich are almost by definition not ethical, if all ethical ppl chose not to invest the distribution of wealth would tilt even further in favour of the super-rich

For me -- someone who is perpetually thinking of doing some of my own investing, but only have a 401k, and feel that the system is messed up -- the only real answer long-term is structural change. I think there should be more public (read: government) ownership of essential sectors, a lot more regulation on many others, and harsh penalties on companies and individuals.

I'm not going to begrudge anyone who uses the current system while not doing so in a particularly asshole-ish way.

I'm also guilty of not paying attention to my own holdings where I have the ability to vote, and I should be doing that.

I guess it's a larger question of what people end up doing with disposable income when they come across it. That's a preference based on lifestyle/goals and upbringing and their own sense of security, I guess.

Like, I've always generally saved more than half, if not more of all the money I've made in traditional jobs since I was in high school.

on the other hand, people who grew up with parents that made poor financial decisions who end up talking about "rich dad, poor dad" are an entire subgenre of people I'd like to avoid

I have friends that make poor financial decisions, just waiting for someone to die so they can get whole with an inheritance.