bojo is king, brexit is on, stuff is fvcked, tomorrow starts here -- new govt new thread new battle

I should be qualified to comment on the covid-19 pandemic. I'm a computational/system biologist working on infectious diseases and have spent five years in a world class 'pandemic response modelling' unit. In this thread, I will summarise what I believe I (don't) know. (1/12)

— Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois) March 14, 2020

Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches. Devising an effective strategy would be even more challenging under low seasonal forcing. It would also considerably complicate effective vaccination campaigns.

he covid-19 pandemic is an extremely challenging problem and there are still many unknowns. There is no simple fix, and poorly thought-out interventions could make the situation even worse, massively so.

sorry I just crudely block quoted two bits from the thread that match how i feel rn

NickB, there's no need to apologise for posting about your own personal struggle. I really hope everything works out for your family and your wife. All the best mate.

jed otm and put it better than i did

otm

Feel like I'm going a bit nutty tbh, need to step away and calm down a bit or else I'll be no use at all to them that need me. Thanks though and sorry to vent

Vent all you like! It's a very good place to do it.

wtf?

Ridiculous scenes in Tesco Colney Hatch this morning. Shelves cleared like there's been a riot. The selfishness of some people filling their trolleys with multiple packs and leaving none for others is staggering. (Plus so much for getting here early to avoid crowded spaces.) pic.twitter.com/CIhJexaYul

— Michelle Davies (@M_Davieswrites) March 14, 2020

NickB, I'd say limit the number of contacts your wife has with others, and all people in the house be rigorous with following the recommended hygiene precautions. That's what we're doing here while my partner recovers from a recent operation, she has an underlying at risk health condition.

And as jed_ said, continue to vent here if necessary. All the best to you.

Nick, obv vent away - it’s frightening. wtev otm but I would seek medical advice on isolation for your wife, as the risk will aiui depend what her white blood cell count is. My brother had HSCT treatment for MS, which as you probably know involves wiping out the white blood cell count and then building it up from extracted bone marrow. He was at home after a critical threshold had been built up, but stayed in his room and just saw family members and used the same house facilities.

NickB all the best to you and your partner.

depressing when you translate a book (the Revelli one) and it gets put on a table literally buckling under the weight of the half price unsold copies of Jess Phillips’ memoir pic.twitter.com/7srioYVIG7

— David Broder (@broderly) March 14, 2020

surely now we are heading towards a wartime ermegency economy there could be some practical use for Jess Phillips books that never will be sold.

Thanks xyzzz, Fizzles & wtev! The MS Society and a couple of FB groups my wife is on sound like they're on the case and regularly circulating guidance gleaned from health care professionals, so we're waiting to find out what the advice is for this new situation. Her MS nurse has been helpful too though obv hugely overworked. She's actually taking this a lot more calmly than me tbh, probably cos she's not got herself addicted to the live media coverage. Luckily for now we've all got things to keep us busy that come with an inherent degree of physical distancing - bek goes sea swimming everyday and that's a fairly safe environment in which to catch up with her friends; oldest son spends all his time on his bike out on the downs; youngest one is always on his computer; I can always go to the allotment for the first time this year and have a mental breakdown while I get the potatoes in. I'll switch to working from home. School's going to be the biggest potential hazard, so the sooner they shut that down the better from my own narrow perspective. It's what we do until they announce that, that's the biggest issue. Could just keep the kids off but GCSEs are fast approaching so again, we're waiting for an announcement on those getting postponed. All in all we're in an okay situation and this is just semi-hysterical wibbling from a relatively privileged position so I'm going to shut up about me from now on and try looking outside the bubble a bit more

I've taken my son off school since Friday and told them he just has a seasonal cold rather than if he comes home infected my partner will probably not survive. Still waiting for the govt to either close all schools or announce something for immune compromised parents.

Yep! I get the argument about the childcare issue for health workers etc, so maybe schooling continues for those families or something?

This is what happens when myopic governments and their ropey advisers lack a basic a sense of humanity and lack the imagination to forsee obvious problems that occur when you look at your population like they are something in a fuckin petri dish.

worth a read:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-senior-nhs-consultant-speaks-out

best wishes to you and your partner & family, NickB

thanks aps!

have the reptiles said anything about plans for the homeless yet? that was an urgent situation anyway but thinking about it now is horrific

Hancock said the NHS already had about 5,000 ventilators, which were needed for people who get severely ill through coronavirus, but he said the country needed “many times more than that”.

He said that, although they were complicated pieces of machinery, they were not so complex that it was impossible for advance manufacturers to switch to producing them, and he said that in a conference call on Sunday Johnson would be urging manufacturing companies to do just this.

“We are saying, you produce a ventilator, then we will buy it. No number is too high,” Hancock said.

presumably these will have to go through some sort of safety testing and certification process? or is it just going to be bodge something up and hope for the best?

say like a company that makes remote control toys and vaping gear switching to electronic medical equipment ... what could possibly go right?

maybe when they give all the low-risk prisoners early release, they can get that guy with the bomb detection devices on the case

Christ, can you imagine if they have to release prisoners? Daily Express readers who haven't already died of Covid-19 will die of apoplexy.

The obvious riposte to Tory cunts expecting people to rally round is, "No such thing as society, mate".

I’m not sure isolating all the 70+ people for four months is a winning strategy - many of these will be carers, essential service providers, and people who live on their own. Others will be ridiculously healthy and/or not yet retired.

Such mess and confusion! I am sure the Germans would have organised everything infinitely better in a similar situation. Even we in Moscow would probably have avoided many of the gaffes committed by the English. I'm becoming more and more convinced that the English are good at managing events that come round every year (for instance, the air shows in Hendon). They accumulate experience and make good use of it. But when it comes to arranging something from scratch and - above all - in haste, you may confidently expect a flop.

at times like this I always think of this entry from the Maisky Dairies that was a genuine truth bomb imo.

this whole thing is could really turn into a huge housing issue as much a health crisis. some people need shielding, others need isolating - maybe people in the same family even? overcrowding presents a serious risk. the homeless will need proper accommodation. recovering people will need moving out of hospitals to free up beds. many people won't be able to afford rent or mortgage payments. prisoners will have to be released, no doubt. just thank god we have a tory government to protect the income of vulnerable landlords

Wishing you and your family all the best Nick.

thanks matt! hoping that vera lynn will come out of retirement to see us all through the dark days ahead

you'll never the antilandlord actions this country needs neither from tory or labour govts, because they don't need reforming - they need to be fucking strung up!

I'm not so sure the government will get away with this - even if the policy turns out to be right then the communication of it has been well and truly bungled already. And its the single most important policy announcement of most of our lifetimes.

If the policy turns out to be wrong and the UK ends up high up a league table of coronavirus deaths then its difficult to see how they will be trusted with anything else. Tories already poll weakly on the NHS and its just become the single overriding priority. Difficult to see how we avoid a major recession even in the most optimistic scenario.

On the other hand they have five years to recover.

Matt Hancock not really the man to front all this tbh.

Calling him a lightweight is insulting to lightweights.

Need to promote a senior doctor to that job for now, not a politician

UK Government’s response to #Coronavirus outbreak seems sensible, measured & proportionate and in line with the best medical advice.

— Dr Liam Fox MP (@LiamFox) March 13, 2020

He's ready.

ahaha!

the bad honorary doc has spoken

it's great when parasitical sub-human scum can leech 2.4million a day from the NHS during a national crisis for extra beds. I don't think socialism will be such a dirty word as people see more of private healthcare literally making a killing from death.

On the other hand they have five years to recover.

― Matt DC, Sunday, 15 March 2020 bookmarkflaglink

This will take up at least a year of this government. This will impact on the shape of the Brexit negotiations too. Might be year three till we are actually out.

Also to consider is that as a nation we might be different from the start of this in all sorts of ways. For better or worse.

^^^ yes, that.

Also, on a different note:

1) I understand a number of Ministers are becoming concerned that a single “senior government source” is undermining the Government’s Coronavirus communications strategy…

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) March 15, 2020

Hodges never knowingly leaves an axe unground

Emma Kennedy chipping in too, collect the set

British police to have powers to arrest covid-19 patients not self-isolating
Ministers are planning to give police in the UK the power to arrest people with coronavirus who are not self-isolating, the health secretary has confirmed

But if we're not even testing people until they require hospitalisation then what is even the point? Or maybe this is just being badly reported

Those that require hospitalisation will not be walking around, those that don't will not officially have the virus

My sister in law is immunocompromised and is at home with a ‘cold’ after her GP tested positive and she can’t get a test. She and my brother are holed up at home (near Derby) and hoping for the best.

Was thinking about Cummings earlier and how he might be incapable of shifting from stir up and conquer mode.

The single biggest problem I can see is that there just isn't enough widespread testing going on. A friend of mine has (relatively mild) coronavirus symptoms and has been in a house with people who have been confirmed with it. But they're not coming to test him - which is going to skew the numbers massively but also going to lead to a situation where loads of people come down with similar symptoms that turn out to be a garden variety cold, get over it, think they're immune and go out into the world again. And then either get it properly or spread it about unawares.

Several xposts there.

the testing in this country is a fucking joke at the moment, and that it what needs prioritising before increased powers of arrest and detention etc..

Wishing you the very best NickB, stay strong <3