outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Covid 19 Tracker. Useful for Americans trying to find out whether their state is ahead of the curve (ie; low % positives) in testing for SARS-CoV-2. Some states aren't reporting negative results.

I think my state (LA) is only catching about 15% (those who are showing up, short of breath at ERs) at present.

international transport is turning fucked quickly in Europe today, with international trains and flights being canceled. a Japanese colleague is here with me and was supposed to go to Munich next week and then to Japan a few days later, but on Aeroflot from Munich to Tokyo; and Aeroflot just announced that from 16 March, scheduled flights will be suspended between Moscow and Barcelona, Burgas, Frankfurt, Heraklion, Munich, Thessaloniki and Zurich. now he has to scramble to get a flight to Tokyo asap, or risk getting stuck here (which is mainly bad because it will be expensive and possibly dangerous if he gets sick here)(not that Tokyo is significantly safer in that regard but he'll have insurance there at least)

Flights between the U.K. and US are likely to stop early next week too.

I live in a small town (6,000), with a moderate-sized town (35,000) 15 minutes east, and a small city (350,000) 30 minutes southwest. We've got two grocery stores: a large one, Independent, owned by Canada's largest grocery conglomerate (Loblaws), and Foodland, a smaller chain store. I've been dropping into one or both the past few days--buying a few things at a time, sometimes just a normal daily stop for one thing (like a salad today), and I also walk there for the exercise in lieu of the gym.

Nothing even approaching hoarding yet. That one highly-coveted item is out--a phenomenon that continues to baffle me--but the shelves are otherwise mostly full. The smaller chain had two lines three-deep at noon today, with another 10 people milling about in the store. Maybe double that when I was in the larger store yesterday. I thought you might start to get people driving in from Stratford and London, but not yet, evidently. If the world shuts down tomorrow, I've got enough for 3-4 weeks easy. This is heartening, but I'm under no illusions that St. Marys wouldn't follow the path of what I'm reading about in Toronto if things took a turn for the worse.

I walked past this ice cream shop on the way home--passed it a thousand times in the car since moving here in November--that has just reopened after seasonal closing. Had to smile wryly--can you imagine reopening this week after a few months off? "Uh, welcome back!" On a good note, there were seven people at the window buying ice cream. I think that's a good note, I don't know.

Small towns and even more rural people will be the last to join the party. They rightly believe that living at the end of the line means they are somewhat insulated. Then, when it arrives, they will keenly feel the lack of sophisticated medical care outside oft the big cities.

More personally, my 75-year old brother in law, who was slowly recovering from what I strongly suspect was a bout with COVID-19, was admitted to the hospital yesterday and is now placed in isolation in an ICU, where he is in an induced coma and on a respirator. The preliminary diagnosis is Guillain-Barré Syndrome. Also, he was finally (!) tested for COVID-19, but the results will not be available until possibly tomorrow.

Fuck

Aimless, that's rough. Sorry to hear it.

Sorry, Aimless.

aimless <3

I'm very sorry to hear that Aimless

I’m sorry Aimless

So sorry Aimless, my thoughts are with you.

crossposting from other thread cuz it should go here:

25 new cases in FL.

The sharp increases begin

― sorry for butt rockin (Neanderthal), Saturday, March 14, 2020 11:46 AM (fourteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Ohio just doubled (from 13 to 26). They're ramping up testing.

― whistling (brownie), Saturday, March 14, 2020 11:53 AM (seven minutes ago)

Is Russia finally reporting cases?

Cases are reporting them

Good luck to your B-in-L, aimless.

For those curious about how this is treated in critical care settings, I thought this was a good intro. (Maybe not for squeamish):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okg7uq_HrhQ

so sorry Aimless

I was thinking similar thoughts about my hometown, it might take a long time or not get there but if it does their "health care" system is going to be so overwhelmed

Sorry, Aimless.

I can only hope the hospital here is engaged in as much advance planning as possible. Demographically, this is an older town, too.

This is probably worth knowing if correct

paracetamol (acetaminophen) not ibuprofen if you get symptoms 👍 https://t.co/MyCcvbymPH

— Abi Wilkinson (@AbiWilks) March 14, 2020

Perhaps a mod should retitle this thread to clarify it's the right one for stats, medical/technical info and politics (reserving the other main one for more personal accounts).

Thinking of you and your family, Aimless. Hope you get some positive news soon.

xps: Interesting on ibuprofen; in case reports and some treatment guidelines, ibuprofen is also used as an add-on fever-reducing drug in hospitalized cases now.

Much love, Aimless. Stay strong.

Widely reported elsewhere, but from a Telegraph article from 2007 (I searched in vain for contemporaneous coverage from the Guardian or Mirror):

Boris Johnson has revealed the inspiration behind his ambition to run London - Larry Vaughn, the mayor in the film Jaws who demanded the beaches stay open despite the ominous presence of a great white shark.

"The real hero of Jaws is the mayor," Mr Johnson said last year in a speech at Lloyd's of London. "A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and he decides to keep the beaches open. OK, in that instance he was actually wrong. But in principle, we need more politicians like the mayor - we are often the only obstacle against all the nonsense which is really a massive conspiracy against the taxpayer."

Bars and restos closed throughout France from midnight tonight. DEF not the time for tourists here.

and yet the elections are still on for tomorrow, this is crazy

Agreed

Graphs are useful but to really get what that rising curve is, have a look at the obituaries page of this Bergamo daily newspaper, comparing one from February with one from now pic.twitter.com/78mgZseyVt

— Ben Phillips (@benphillips76) March 14, 2020

So my dad is insisting on taking a trip to Colorado to visit friends next week for his birthday. He’s about to be 76 and his girlfriend is 70 and I’m in the UK. I’m terrified he’s going to get sick and I won’t be able to get there but nothing I say will convince him to postpone this trip. :(

aimless, I’m thinking about you and your family

Best of luck to your brother in law, Aimless

Thanks to all who expressed good wishes. I should have put that post into the board 77 thread about 'what happened'. Except for my strong suspicion this is a follow-on complication from never-tested, undiagnosed COVID-19, it is just my personal stuff.

Yes, sorry Aimless. I read your post earlier and really hope he starts to improve.

thoughts to all

best wishes to you and your brother-in-law, Aimless

yes, the same well wishes to Aimless brother-in-law

Fever: 99.3. Partner has fever of 99.6. Buckle up, lassies.

I'm so sorry, Aimless. From the sound of many patient reports, you're probably right about it being the virus. Apparently there's a pattern of patients lasting a week and seeming to get better and then crashing in week 2. It's one of the scarier things to contemplate.

xp Oh babes. You got someone who can leave soup & Gatorade outside your door?

We stocked up good. Scored two of the last Costco lasagnas in existence. Calorically, we should be fine until 2025.

Not a massive fan of this statistic, from a personal point of view:

300 people are in critical condition, half of them under 50.

fuck

😩

i heard drinking loads of red wine for 30 of those years improves your chances!

that detail has now been edited out, either as it's inaccurate or too terrifying lol

Or not useful without a whole bunch of other stats about population sizes, testing regimes etc.

I feel like the global lockdown could be a good opportunity for a stats101 teach-in.

i mean it fits the 20% hospitalization. that's the part people aren't getting is that even if you don't die, you can have your immune system given a swift kick in the ass by this thing and have to be cared for in the hospital a while.

and that if the hospitals get overwhelmed, that impacts more than just the people there for COVID-related symptoms.

Interesting! The stat is still there in the live blog (have to scroll down a way) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Pretty sure most of the critical cases involving younger patients preyed on underlying conditions. Smoking is also a significant factor (word to the wise…).

OKAY FINE. GOD.