bojo is king, brexit is on, stuff is fvcked, tomorrow starts here -- new govt new thread new battle

i've been trying to work out if there's any local initiatives to volunteer to do shopping and errands for local older people cos i feel like that'd be mutually beneficial tbh but no, everything's piecemeal.

― Psychedics with Rosie Swash (Noodle Vague), Saturday, 14 March 2020 11:16 (fifty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i just posted a couple of (london-based anarchist-run) facebook groups on the "bring me soup" thread: "bring me soup mfers" (thread of urgent coronavirus quarantine requests shd need arise: london local)

there may well be local equivalents, at least in larger urban areas (i am sceptical of anarchist politics in many ways but at least they're disinclined to wait around for the state to get into gear)

i saw those mark

i'm going to keep an eye out via the internet etc and see what comes up, i think i'm already FB friends with most of what passes for the anarcho scene in Hull

Could stop-start shutdowns flatten the curve more than "stay home if you already have it" and could that buy vaccine time?

in practice it is a “thin the herd” strategy though, unless the govt is putting together a wartime-like effort to provide supplies, food and care to those vulnerable populations. have i missed an announcement to this effect?

It's not so much a strategy as a "if we do nothing then this will happen" policy, which probably suits the likes of Johnson as he doesn't have to piss off his donors by diverting their wealth into social care. Although probably 90+ of those 277,000 predicted deaths are Tory voters, so what a bind he's in.

When you write a business case or options paper in the civil service you must always include a Do Nothing analysis. I think BJ read it that far and stopped.

I can't see a situation where the schools don't shut at some point. We're already on our knees and presumably, next week will see a whole bunch of people - teachers and kids - self-isolating. End of next week?

They’re not doing nothing though. Telling people with mild symptoms to isolate has a big effect they say. There is more to come

Stop-start shutdowns are the local railway solution to protecting the public, it takes forever and fucks everyone off. Boris is building the hs2 to herd immunity central, get everyone there as quick as possible just as long as you can make the journey, sorry no senior railcards accepted

Lol!

it’s also not just “the most vulnerable” who will die, it’s healthy 29 year olds like this person: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-death-life.html

which makes the “let everybody get it” strategy feel a bit..... fucking harsh?

Just to keep banging away at this I'm really worried this "the govts strategy is to let everyone get Corona virus" meme is taking hold. That most people will get the virus isn't the strategy, it's the assumption driving the strategy

— Nick Hassey (@nickhassey) March 14, 2020

Sorry Shippers but this is the cost of stop-start, kinda (this isn’t flu, this isn’t 1918 etc)

My sources suggest that fear of a second wave of CV19 deaths this winter is what has shaped the government's strategy. This is why: pic.twitter.com/AZz9h78DSZ

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) March 14, 2020

sudden hit of clarity that this will see the destruction of the tory party

Good luck with that

The Tory Party will outlast the cockroaches

Tories are an ancient wormlike sub species that are in it for the very long game, they'll at least be still here for the apocalypse, and probably be the main benefactors from it!

Sorry, it really is a “let everybody get it” strategy because there is no plan to protect and support vulnerable people. Unless I’ve missed an announcement?

The closest to a strategy to protect them (well, us - I'm in two risk groups) is to hope these very limited measures flatten the peak enough that there will be room for them/us in hospitals if needed.

3. ???????
4. Profit!

Sorry, I'm lost. The point is that Italy is at 1000 deaths while we are at 10.

We are 12 or so days behind them in cases. In deaths, given reasonable assumptions, we are four weeks behind them.. So if you want to know where the govt's "we are four weeks behind Italy" is coming from, I think it's that.

So we would expect the rate to fall off below Italy's, so the day after it hits 11 it shouldn't be, say 21, having nearly doubled overnight?

That's a cheap shot, and there's no way that I'm not going to sound arsey here, but are you willing to nominate a point at which you'll say "okay, I got this wrong"?

Italy was at 10 daily deaths on 2nd March.

Yesterday they were at 250.

Tangentially the arguments about the govt’s strategy are kind of why I tend to bristle at ppl whose pitch is eViDenCe bAsEd pOLiCy, like... okay, but there will still be ideology and bias involved and good and bad decisions, starting at who they engage to advise in the first place. You can “follow the science” in a shitload of ways and these incompetent lying disaster capitalists may not be choosing the best one

A useful lesson from Italy 🇮🇹👇 #Covid_19

Italy's outbreak started in the province of Lodi, in Southern Lombardy. The Italian government forced a first lockdown here 3 weeks ago. This area only counted 10 new cases today (+0.9% on yesterday). Social distancing works.

— Ferdinando Giugliano (@FerdiGiugliano) March 13, 2020

I'm not getting your point there, Onimo?

I think I'm reinforcing yours. We're at 10 deaths per day today, that puts us 12 days behind Italy on that metric. If we follow Italy's path, or are even close to it, we'll be losing 200+ per day before April.
Italy has more restrictions in place than we do. I see no reason to assume our curve will somehow be flatter than theirs.

Ah fair enough.

I'm not expecting that it'll continue to double, to be clear - I'd expect that that's a statistical co-incidence rather than anything else.

It does look like a statistical bump but i think it'll be common soon.
Guidance to self isolate without consulting a GP or 111 means the daily deaths will more reliably show the spread than the reported cases and tests.

There were 10 reported on Thursday and I didn't see any deaths reported yesterday...I could be wrong but I'd rather be able to say it took nearer 48 hours to double rather than 24.

So we would expect the rate to fall off below Italy's, so the day after it hits 11 it shouldn't be, say 21, having nearly doubled overnight?

That's a cheap shot, and there's no way that I'm not going to sound arsey here, but are you willing to nominate a point at which you'll say "okay, I got this wrong"?

Who is advising the government on their coronavirus policy?

Lilico I think!

I slipped on some mud earlier but managed to stay on feet. It set me off thinking what an absolute mare it would be break an ankle or leg right now, just any kind injury that immobilises for months you and requires surgery and a hospital stay.

my brother and his partner are expecting a baby within the month and are very worried about the timings

jeez, I can imagine that would be v worrying.

it's ok newborns don't use bog roll iirc

Catholic Bishops are apparently considering closing churches over Holy Week according to two senior sources.

— Dawn Foster (@DawnHFoster) March 14, 2020

if true, this would be biggest catholic news since the pope did a shit in the woods

Brexit: coronavirus sparks calls to extend EU transition period https://t.co/43pODUSHXm

— Guardian politics (@GdnPolitics) March 14, 2020

this must be almost a certainty now.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-boris-johnson-tougher-restrictions

Lots and lots in here, including the Brexit delay. Buried but the bit about the real goal of the strategy being “avoid the dangerous second spike” with or without herd immunity, which is interesting.

Other proposals under consideration by ministers include extraordinary measures to help supermarkets remain stocked and able to deliver food to the elderly.

not what I was expecting to be reading when the most right wing tory govt in decades won a huge majority in December!

programme about the Chief Medical Officer on Radio 4 at the moment, plax otm, the guy is a full-blown son of the empire

could we maybe focus on avoiding the dangerous FIRST spike ffs??

A Tory MP said that Johnson faces a “political shitstorm” if the UK is affected worse than other countries and that he will not be able to use *Whitty and Vallance as “human shields”.

*just when they thought it couldn't get any worse Nick Broomfield is going to sue them for copyright infringement as well!

xp

yep, T H

Brexit means coronavirus vaccine will be slower to reach the UK
And it will cost more here because of the UK pulling out of the European Medicines Agency on 30 December
• Three experts explain why Brexit leaves the UK less able to respond to pandemic

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-vaccine-delays-brexit-ema-expensive

oh fucking hell just fuck off already

Lots and lots in here, including the Brexit delay. Buried but the bit about the real goal of the strategy being “avoid the dangerous second spike” with or without herd immunity, which is interesting.

― stet, Saturday, 14 March 2020 18:25 (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

I'm hopelessly out of my depth here but if it's without herd immunity aren't we exactly as exposed to a second spike as the 50 countries that are doing it wrong?

This clip from last week is a bit about that, G. I think it says you get growing immunity from all the people in the first spike (if not total everyone-relax-now herd immunity) and so avoid a second large epidemic. (Which would likely come at the same time as flu season returned)

Here’s the chart from @deb_cohen @BBCNewsnight report - explaining the theory behind cracking down but not too quickly - and some experts explaining different judgements... pic.twitter.com/MUBpqE1AMB

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) March 14, 2020

Cheers - so we may still get it but it too should be lower

I'm just inexpertly adding what I've read other people saying but 1. Herd Immunity has apparently never been achieved without a vaccine and 2. for it to be successful it would require 36-40 million people to become infected. That sounds like an absolute shower of shite of a concept of epidemic management to me.