bojo is king, brexit is on, stuff is fvcked, tomorrow starts here -- new govt new thread new battle

Just think for a moment how truly shit this year is going to be. And then think about dealing with Brexit for all of next year and beyond, something that even a lot of leavers were saying would be tough in the short term, but that's okay because we're in a good economic position and haven't just taken a massive cobid-19 sized hit oh wait

Yeah the aftermath of this is hard to imagine. If 300-500,000 people die, very little is going to be the same again.

the Asian countries learned from SARS

I think the West needed a wake-up call

cobid-19

ffs, covid-19 not corbyn-19, the world dodged the coronommunism virus already

Just think for a moment how truly shit this year is going to be.

― ymo sumac (NickB), Thursday, March 12, 2020 8:59 PM (twenty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

liverpool league title foremost in yr thoughts here presumably

lol that's not gonna happen if the premier league had some fucking guts and a sense of civic duty

BBC News are still doing that Newscast thing that started as Brexitcast, now focusing on coronavirus but with the same insufferable chummy atmosphere and shit-eating grins all-round. The fuck is wrong with them.

— FQ Coyle (@francisqcoyle) March 12, 2020

fucking hell, good job I've almost entirely totally cut out bbc tv from my life since the election.

i think one of the perceived problems with closing schools is what healthcare staff, amongst others, who have children do.

does anybody know what happens in other countries like ireland for instance?

no doubt that children are amazing for spreading stuff without getting ill - aiui the reason the flu inoculation is important at school is not to prevent children getting it but to prevent its spread in the adult population.

― Fizzles, Thursday, 12 March 2020 19:50 (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Another factor here is how many kids with working parents are or would be looked after by grandparents & therefore risk of increased spread to the older population

the short answer fizzles is that we really dont know yet.

the school shutdown was only known at very high levels first thing this morning and the entire service are reacting all day, right up til 7pm when the DPER circular came out covering leave

i had thought it gave carte blanche for special leave for parents (ranted on the irish thread) but on review (and consulting with a civil service HR professional who is currently making the tea) its actually leaving it up to local arrangements quite a bit and clearly expects people to clock their hours, with a bit of flexibility:

 Caring responsibilities e.g. due to the closure of a primary school/crèche: in this scenario both employers and employees should be flexible in their approach to ensure business continuity and employees should work from home where possible. Employers need to implement alternative working arrangements to support employees to attend work. For example, this could include flexible shifts and longer opening hours, to support the provision of services while supporting social distancing measures. Civil and public service employees must stay in regular contact with their managers at all times throughout the period. DPER is reviewing the process for managing caring responsibilities during COVID-19.

also being made clear that staff will be reassigned and redeployed so i guess ill be burning bodies or something by april

Thread on SK's procedures for containment, all ongoing.

New innovative ideas were taken seriously and enacted ASAP. World class IT programs were implemented

🚘 Drive thru testing

🛰 Utilization of GPS information for contact tracing.

🧳Travelers entering the country DL a self report app by KCDC to track symptoms and wherabouts. /3 pic.twitter.com/0d4JBsjoOO

— Hannah Nam MD (@HannahNamMD) March 11, 2020

Saskatchewan doing things right

With the stench of death in the air, there is no better time to #BeKindOnline. pic.twitter.com/lLubdMao3z

— Dr Robert 'Rob' Zands PhD (@DrRobertZands) March 12, 2020

Chart from my live on #Newsnight just now. Right or wrong, there’s no doubt the UK is increasingly an outlier in our Covid response. pic.twitter.com/ZczXx8M48c

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) March 12, 2020

so we just spread it faster but then feel the benefits later as some projected model of how something so unpredictable will pan out... fucking insane demented wonk gone mad bullshit imo!

Listen, at least we can still hop on a plane and infect some Yanks.

All of which makes me wonder what Dominic Cummings is up to.

getting his airport pop psychology books from the local library from now onwards!

kinda fun watching a government full of MPs who've spent the last 5 years or more disparaging experts appealing for the public to listen to the experts

Yes - and also seeing FBPEs who've spent the same time railing at MPs for disparaging experts now screaming at Johnson for, er, following experts.

Good point. This whole situation.

The problem is more that the experts inside the government are following Boris (or more likely Cummings) - the ones outside government seem unconvinced.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/verdicts-of-experts-on-governments-new-coronavirus-measures

Even if the U.K. is correct and the countries that have been prepping since SARS are not, it seems completely insane that there is no government advice against the elderly continuing as normal, no measures being out in place to help vulnerable people access groceries, etc, no guidance against conferences being cancelled (which means their insurance can’t kick in), and so on. You can presumably factor in X00k deaths as inevitable while trying to reduce that number to the lowest possible.

Seeing Facebook and newspaper comments from older people saying we’re will keep and eye on government advice and act accordingly, so we are not going to overreact now’ at the same time as the government is apparently running with a policy that isn’t prioritising their immediate safety is horrifying.

Yeah but Churchill said loved ones will die before their time with his customary grim realism so suck it up and be a man – this is war.

If they're not willing to take the hint and stack themselves up like cordwood on the pavement then frankly they weren't worth saving anyway.

We survived the War, even those of us who weren't born yet, we can survive this.

The Crown will triumph over the Corona!

My Dad is certainly no fan of the Tories but its striking how deferent to authority he is (in that sense of "I must obey this random person on the phone that is pretending to be from British Gas at all coats"). He's wayward and its very difficult to get him to listen to or acknowledge any advice or suggestion, to the point of doing the opposite of what had been asked.....unless it comes from a perceived figure of authority, in which case he becomes completely observant.

Something from the government would definitely go a long way in his case.

I suspect that a lot of people, and those organising events of any kind, will just ignore the government and shut in/shut down anyway. Went for a walk yesterday evening and every pub or restaurant was virtually empty.

There's just a general sense of dread out there. I'm never seen anything like it. If there's an enormous spike in cases soon the government is going to have to change tack and its going to look very bad when it does so.

in the absence of any comprehensive testing regime, how are the government monitoring numbers on this? just going by hospital admissions alone?

Lad coughing into his hand and then shoving that same hand in front of mine(???) to push the button that opens the train doors? You love to see it.

Went for a walk yesterday evening and every pub or restaurant was virtually empty.

Going out boozing with work colleagues tonight so, er, you love to, er, see it?

Obligatory joke about how alcohol will kill any viruses

https://www.irishpost.com/news/old-boris-johnson-quote-jaws-mayor-hero-resurfaces-amid-coronavirus-crisis-181536

Just like Trump, there is an old Johnson quote for any occasion.

I take a rhodiola rosea (also known as arctic root) tablet every day which is one of the adaptogen herbal supplements that apparently enhances cellular immunity amongst other benefits.. I have been taking it for years now in a period where I've not been ill very often at all.

in the absence of any comprehensive testing regime, how are the government monitoring numbers on this? just going by hospital admissions alone?

more like the CBA committee amirite?

Would really like to have faith in the scientific advice on this, but Boris is giving me strong 'get covid done' vibes at the moment - rush it through, deal with the bodies later

that's a good angle to attack him from imo

This isn't the coronavirus I voted for

It sure does sound like lots of the immune compromised are getting hung out to die. Just tories being tories tbf.

"The problem is more that the experts inside the government are following Boris (or more likely Cummings) - the ones outside government seem unconvinced."

Is the Chief Medical Officer following Dominic Cummings? I don't get the sense that this is what's happening.

if the queen dies from coronavirus and its clearly boris's fault then I imagine he may be torn to pieces by a mob, I'm not saying I want this to happen, but it's a possibility he should consider

The more I think about it the angrier I get. Dozens of leaders and experts across the world are recommending varying degrees of isolation and limitation of social interactions to reduce and slow the spread. Ours are saying 'sorry but you're going to die.'

I honestly believe their primary motivation is managing the economic impact.

I was at high risk of respiratory infection *before* covid-19 so I admit I'm taking this a bit personally.

the immune compromised are getting hung out to die

^^^this :(

Vallance good on Today. The major difference here seems to be we are going for “single spike” approach vs the implicit continental “double spike”.

In both you try to keep cases under the line that hospitals can cope with; our lot seem to be betting the NHS can cope better dealing with this all summer than it would with this on top of flu next winter.

His point on the compromised/elderly is he wants to bring the measures in at the time they will have maximum protective effect; he says that isn’t now (see testing point above though).

right or wrong stet my hat is off to your heroic defense of this strategy which i think you are basically alone in, on this thread at least. it's not an easy thing to defend but you're doing a good job of it and i am almost convinced that it's correct i.e. 'crazy like a fox'

My irrational idea of two days ago to go out and lick the infected so I'm ill before the hospitals are full seems less irrational today.

I get the govt position and agree stet's defence is heroic... but we're gambling a lot on some very shaky data.

Not sure if this has been posted but good thread here on the various responses so far

this quote from an emeritus professor of epidemiology on Ireland closing schools is important, I think. Via https://t.co/2fK7POZUI9

I see a lot of people saying we're not moving fast enough. Maybe they're right, but it's not obvious, and there are big costs to moving too fast. pic.twitter.com/Jwo1VFyN3p

— Tom Chivers (@TomChivers) March 12, 2020

Is there any basis for the idea the idea that the UK is four weeks behind Italy other than a man with a reassuring voice said so? The worldometers pages for the two seems pretty clear that the current count (560) for the UK fits between the 26th and 27th of February for Italy - that's just over two weeks.

Here is a good thread commenting on that panel of experts article that Andrew linked to:

This bit from a panel of experts reviewing current UK policy stands out: Govt comms has been very insistent on The Science leading policy decisions, but there's still many unknowns, and it's at that point human judgement has had to step in pic.twitter.com/hjipO2uqYP

— Chris Applegate (@chrisapplegate) March 13, 2020