bojo is king, brexit is on, stuff is fvcked, tomorrow starts here -- new govt new thread new battle

Why hasn't the league been cancelled to stop Liverpool winning

I'm not sure what the first one refers to there - the government strategy seems to be to overwhelm the hospitals as soon as possible, to avoid that we'd need to start distancing - well, probably a week ago tbh.

the government says its strategy is to choke things off at the point where the hospitals are going to be whelmed.

Their argument against doing it a week or more ago is that you'd choke it off too early, everyone would emerge and all you would have done is move the spike so they are overwhelmed three weeks later.

People object to that on the grounds that it means people will get needlessly sick and die, but the govt isn't yet answering that with the candid answer which is "yes, we know, it's still better".

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESwmWpnXgAA6uf_?format=jpg&name=small

Jeremy Warner of the Telegraph, ladies and gentlemen

Fuuuuck.

Given the Telegraph's readership someone should probably explain to Jeremy Warner about the value of not annihilating the hand that feeds you.

xp We'd also better hope that the model they are apparently so confident in (to hit the correct level of whelm) has good-enough sensitivities for (say) people having trouble contacting 111 to report cases, or a shortage in diagnosis kits.

his response has apparently been "hey i was only talking about economics"

reminds me of that time the Taxpayer's Alliance suggested some pre-election pledges made to pensioners can be reneged on without too much blowback cos most of the fuckers will be dead soon enough!

Sturgeon has leaked the decision, which is that schools stay open. Feels like they're sticking with "get it out there". Nasty and genuinely tough choice.

keir milburn writing the same article he always does really but worth a look esp if you've not read him before

https://www.versobooks.com/blogs/4592-the-defeat-of-youth-the-generational-dimensions-of-the-2019-general-election

this is the key and most striking bit: While in 2010 Labour had just a one per cent lead over the Conservatives among 18-24-year-olds, by 2017 this had risen to thirty five per cent.

The govt approach to coronavirus is one of the most interesting social experiments of recent times.

If it works: UK avoids shutting down the country, but suffers virus outbreak no worse than elsewhere. Masterstroke.

If not: UK suffers 100s or 1000s of avoidable deaths.

— Hugo Gye (@HugoGye) March 12, 2020

If 80% of us get it and mortality rate is 2% it's more like a million deaths.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is beginning a press conference from Downing Street.

He begins by saying he chaired an emergency meeting with ministers from across the UK.

"It is clear that coronavirus continues and will continue to spread across the world and our country over the next few months," adds Mr Johnson.

"We have done what can be done to contain disease, which has bought us valuable time.

"But it is now a global pandemic and the worst public health crisis for a generation."

He adds: "I must level with you, the British public, more families will lose their loved ones before their time."

That is not something I think I’ve ever heard from a PM. Incredible.

However, new measures are going to be in place.

They include:

Staying at home for seven days if you have, however mild, a new continuous cough or higher temperature
Advise all those over-70s not to go on cruises
Advise against international school trips

Mr Johnson says they are only "considering the question of banning major events, including sporting fixtures" - not because of the spread of the virus, but because of the burden it puts on public services.

He also says schools should remain open.

Current deaths vs reported cases is at 3.51%

If 80% of us get it and mortality rate is 2% it's more like a million deaths.

these new measures are ...nothing very much?

actually terrified by this right now

lol we're going to die?!

the olds might get lonely if you tell them to self-isolate, he's just said...

Sturgeon has leaked the decision, which is that schools stay open. Feels like they're sticking with "get it out there". Nasty and genuinely tough choice.

Really gives you insight into the thinking behind the Famine

wonder how the daily express are dealing with this right now? yo olds, time for more of that good old blitz spirit eh?

time for us to ban travellers from uk?

no doubt tory/brexiters will have some very clever remarks to make about us closing borders, but if our whole strategy is to keep the numbers requiring hospital care manageable this approach from UK could render it completely pointless without heavy restrictions

Fuckin snowflakes

sorry mate that's just how we feel

Kind of a bit shocked by this esp given Ireland closing the schools was top of sky news earlier, how are they justifying it in that context?

The argument, as I followed it from the presser, is:
- There isn't that much virus out there yet. There are many cases, but it's nowhere near where it's going to be. We are four weeks behind Italy.
- So if you close schools now, you don't actually get a massive benefit.
- You really need the benefit as you start to ramp up to the peak. Schools definitely have to close then.
- So if you close schools now, you need to keep them closed for roughly 16 weeks.
- The chance of keeping children isolated that long (even absent all the knock-on childcare impact) is 0. So it will break down.
-Ergo schools stay open, for now.

all ur shares are fucked, all ur cruises iz ded xp

High risk but I guess I can see the logic, plus Tories.

The presser is really good, if people have time to watch. Starts at 16:50 if you scroll back
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000grsg/bbc-news-special-coronavirus-pandemic-bbc-news-special

Train I’m on is the first one I’ve noticed to be less busy - especially as it’s short by 4 carriages. More people wfh the better, will help slow spread too.

"We are four weeks behind Italy."

The graph I saw a couple of days ago said we were 10 days behind.

I think the concern with closing schools is that, while it would flatten the curve, it would also have a pretty bad effect on NHS staffing, which undoes some of the good of flattening the curve. Only one way to find out I guess.

Italy’s demographics are significantly different enough that maybe it has an impact, idk? More % of old and very old people = more potential for cases that get serious or are difficult to resolve and require beds?

We are four weeks behind Italy, and the peak is 10 to 14 weeks away. So it's going to get a fuck-lot worse, holy christ.

Btw stet a friend of a colleague was able to request a test on 111 & get the results fairly quick so hopefully this means they’re turning stuff around faster. A month ago there was a report on trialling drive through testing and they’ll probably scale up to that sooner rather than later.

We're also only 3 weeks from schools closing for 2 weeks for Easter anyway

hi lads

going to be grimness for businesses if (when) they start shutting down the country. in my line (banking) we’re already seeing second order impacts come through in eg hotels (with bookings down) and firms who install things in people’s houses (orders down because no one wants people coming into their house). restaurants, hospitality etc going to be snookered

The presser discussed your point too, onimo: their worst-case is 80% infection, they think the mortality is 1%. But they stopped short of giving the figure because they said "you can multiply those and get a figure, but the hope is if you can suppress that peak you can reduce the death rate by 20-30% in certain categories"

My employer (NHS Trust) is introducing employee testing next week I think

111 Covid-19 stuff as of last night had switched over to an NHS England public health line which goes through a basic flowchart and tells you don't need to call 111 if you're not in a confirmed outbreak area or haven't been to one of the affected countries

What they do tell you is to go on the website and use the online symptoms checker, which is...the exact same set of questions they read out on the phone to you

I suppose another factor is that the most vulnerable populations aren’t evenly distributed through the country. We saw this during the election: some places have a lot more old people than others.

||||||, agree. Hope there’s some intervention. Is ordering takeaway doing the state some service?!

we had one company who install eg stairlifts, accessible baths etc in elderly people’s homes. their supply chain was all out of china- so were hit by the first order impacts from wuhan shutdown. now they’re dealing with collapsing consumer sentiment and people’s reticence to have strangers in their homes. one of many businesses round the country

PM: “I must level with you, the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.”

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) March 12, 2020

This is a completely fucking pointless wasting my time but I'm thinking about how Corbyn would be handling this, whether it would have strangled his government at birth or whether it'd end up being the making of them.

In the end it doesn't really matter.

you think so? I'm astonished and a bit impressed that he said it. It was exactly the sort of thing Trump should have been doing last night imo.

xp

He's getting to live the wet dream of every idiot Tory politician ever - the chance to be Churchillian.

Yeah, Churchill had a few thoughts on averting suffering in certain populations too.