2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

was good

a lot of centrist types who dislike Donald Trump (even though they may have voted for him in 2016) who don't really like either Dem candidate but still say "well I'm not going to vote for ~~*sOcIaLiSm*~~ so if it's Bernie I'll be forced to vote Trump"

I think the danger is less that centrists would vote for Trump instead but that they won't vote, period.

both biden and trump are going to live to be a hundred years old

I think the danger is less that centrists would vote for Trump instead but that they won't vote, period.

This is correct, I think. If Biden turns out to be doddering and shaky, it's not hard to imagine it depressing turnout.

i feel like "Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump" has quietly melted away to "Americans just really hate Trump so Biden will win"

melted, yes

we ain't fakin'
whole lotta meltin' going on

I do think Biden is the candidate most likely to beat Trump, or to at least take a swing at him if he's still wily enough to dodge his way through secret service.

"a minor celebrity i previously liked" is quite the display name candidate, kudos

i feel like "Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump" has quietly melted away to "Americans just really hate Trump so Biden will win"

If you follow the Bitecofer analysis -- which I'm going with for now because it makes as much sense as anything, and it will make me feel better for the next long 8 months -- then that has always been the right way to look at it.

Not being super enthusiastic about either Bernie or Biden (tho much more personally inclined to Bernie fwiw), I've never thought it mattered much which one of them got nominated because they both have pretty serious flaws and also some evident electoral strengths. But by definition the most electable person is the one who gets the nomination (i.e. at this point Biden), because to be electable you have to actually be on the ballot. If Bernie was the "most electable," he needed to start by actually winning the nomination.

I think the election is statistically and probability-wise winnable by pretty much any breathing candidate on the Democratic line. That doesn't mean they will win it, but there's nothing right now that says they can't.

nothing against Bitecofer or her thesis but I wonder if it would be so popularly cited if it didn't line up with ppl's hopes and (understandable) desire to mentally check out from this whole thing

Does anyone seriously floating the bait-switch "Biden wins, then immediately resigns" fantasy actually think that's anything other than a disaster for Dem long-range prospects?

nothing against Bitecofer or her thesis but I wonder if it would be so popularly cited if it didn't line up with ppl's hopes and (understandable) desire to mentally check out from this whole thing

It also makes Chuck Todd look like a gaping asshole, which everyone likes.

true, the great unifier

Does anyone seriously floating the bait-switch "Biden wins, then immediately resigns" fantasy actually think that's anything other than a disaster for Dem long-range prospects?

I would argue that anyone seriously floating that theory isn’t thinking at all

Yeah, who in the word is seriously floating that idea?

World

i believe that biden could absolutely win the election, even if trump wasn't currently badly bungling an epidemic response and there wasn't a recession on the way, but i also believe he's absolutely capable of throwing victory away in a worse manner than clinton did.

xps that one minor celebrity you used to like is.

Biden polling just slightly higher than Bernie against Trump nationally except in Wisconsin, where he's losing to Trump and Bernie's up

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html#polls

Checked in on MCIUTL, they have not said they think Biden will quit and hand over the presidency, however they have shared this, ugh

Oh shit. Bernie got checked. pic.twitter.com/Ke3gtBuIeV

— ⚖️ Bianca DeLaRosa⚖️ (@KHiveQueenB) March 9, 2020

nothing against Bitecofer or her thesis but I wonder if it would be so popularly cited if it didn't line up with ppl's hopes and (understandable) desire to mentally check out from this whole thing

It has that appeal. But it also makes sense and has some data behind it, and based on my anecdotal evidence and general sense of things (which is of no greater value than anyone else's), there is a tremendous amount of fuck-trumpism out there in the potential Democratic electorate, which is much stronger and more broadly based than the support for any particular candidate. During Bloomberg's brief surge a month ago, I said that the one thing he was getting right that I wasn't seeing or hearing enough of (especially from the Bernie camp) is that that election is about beating Trump, not destroying the Democratic establishment. Bernie's base always seemed split between those goals, or at least to see them as of equal weight, and that was a misread of the 2020 primary voter. IMHO.

based on my feeeelings I figure their chances against Trump are both pretty good, but for different reasons. besides just general distaste for trump obv.

but then what? I know lots of ppl are dismissive of Bernie’s version of movement politics, but I think Trump can actually be instructive here. E.g., most of the other GOP candidates, had they been elected instead of Trump, would have probably nominated Kavanaugh. But then quickly moved on to the next Federalist-approved dipshit once he became toxic. Trump’s media and rally barnstorming turned Bawlin Brett into a conservative folk hero. And now we’re stuck with him until I’m probably close to dead.

Now what if we were to use those kinds of powers for Good? Learn from the GOP imo. Most people hate their fucking guts and they Still Win (obv electoral college and rural state senate advantages, not to mention voter suppression play a role, too, but just like go with me here).

Clearly the under 40 are m/l on board. I think boomers would come around, too out of some RESPECT ARE PRESIDENT impulses. Idk. Just something to think about in 2024... when it’s probably too late lol fml

Bernie's base always seemed split between those goals, or at least to see them as of equal weight, and that was a misread of the 2020 primary voter. IMHO.

They didn't/don't feel that way as a strategy for winning or a "read" of anyone ftr xp

someone posted an article arguing that nominating Biden gives Dems the best chance at taking the Senate, which IMO is probably more important anyway

They didn't/don't feel that way as a strategy for winning or a "read" of anyone ftr xp

― bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.),

Anecdotal evidence, etc, but the Latinx Sanders voters whom I'm acquainted with loathe "The DNC" more than Trump.

Regardless of which they hate more, my point is it wasn't out of some strategic positioning or an attempt to predict what "the average primary voter" values

still waiting on this fabled method of not being sad

(or at least one that does not cost hundreds of dollars per month, which is in fact a large part of why I am not happy about the prospect of that cost remaining hundreds of dollars per month)

still waiting on this fabled method of not being sad

― like, I’m eating an elephant head (katherine),

I listen to Paramore.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dn8YVyQUwAIlmXE.jpg

my point is it wasn't out of some strategic positioning or an attempt to predict what "the average primary voter" values

Sure. It's just that the "average primary voter" is who you need (or some number of them) to win a primary. Anyway. Point being that there are way more people activated/motivated to beat Trump than to destroy the DNC, which is why the Bitcofer thesis may hold true. Or not! But I think it's a competitive election regardless of who's on the D line.

Bitecofer, not Bitcofer. Bitcofer is what you keep yr bitcoins in, obvs.

from POLITICO:

[I]In addition to his supporters, Sanders possesses a massive fundraising list, what one Democratic National Committee member called “the gold mine.”

The committee member, a veteran of presidential campaigns, said that in exchange for his support, Sanders could negotiate with Biden for everything from speaking time at the Democratic National Convention to platform changes and appointments.

“He needs to sit down with [Tom] Perez or Joe’s people,” the DNC member said, referring to the DNC chairman.

Sanders can’t win, he said. “But he will be able to bargain.”[I]

Nice.

scary this whole thing may boil down to which issue is more energizing in WI and PA specifically,

a) Trump hatred
b) extra-ideological jobs/trade stuff

and if it's the latter, ugh

that Bernie should have to negotiate for "speaking time" at the convention is rather lol

well sure, when to consider that the “Bloomberg wing” (and that’s more $$$ than ppl) would rather lose with Biden than win with Bernie

when you*

Anyway Kelly up 7 points in AZ so that’s pretty fn good

Anecdotal evidence, etc, but the Latinx Sanders voters whom I'm acquainted with loathe "The DNC" more than Trump.

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, March 11, 2020 9:35 AM (twenty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I'm with your Latinx friends and in my lifetime of voting Democrat I have never felt as much desire to cast a spite vote as I do today. Which would mean voting Jill or #demexit, not a vote for the belligerent maniac Trump, which I hope and assume goes without saying.

Sorry guys I'm sure I'll cool off by November but I'm really goddamned depressed today

not having seen him most people voted for Joe BIden c. 2008

bbbut everyone watches cable news

I spite-voted for Nader in 2000, got it out of my system, albeit in a non-competitive state. That's back when I thought of presidential elections differently. Since then I've come around to "any thug who will beat the other team's thug, I don't care," because the other team is way more wrong about just about anything than anyone running against them will be. (And in terms of teams, I've never in my life considered myself a Democrat, this is broader than that. Secular progressivism vs. whatever you want to call what Trump is.)

People in non-competitive states should spite-vote all they want imo, as long as they don't accidentally tip the state into being competitive in the wrong direction. But also, I think presidential elections are giant blunt levers and that's all they are, and they affect the entire executive branch plus also obvs the Supreme Court and a bunch of other things. It's just not really about the name on the ballot to me. If I actually like the person attached to the name, that's a bonus.

yeah I'll vote for Biden but there is no way I'm going to help campaign or donate a single dollar to their cause any more. go hit up Bloomberg.

i will vote for whomever removes this sinus headache from my head

Probably Bernie tbh.

Some interesting numbers in here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/opinion/sanders-trump-biden.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Suggesting that Sanders' voters overall may well be more of a real progressive coalition this year than in 2016, but also why a smaller one.

In other words, the myth of the radical/progressive white working class voter rising up in solidarity is punctured once again.

lol @ ppl wondering why Biden's getting broader base of support/fewer negatives than Hillary. HE DOESN'T HAVE BOOBS. Yes, I do think America just hates women *that much*. Biden also hasn't been vilified for decades by the right-wing media.