2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

The turnout numbers have been a comfort.

Are these former candidates all eyeing up the VP nomination then?

agreed re turnout.

Are these former candidates all eyeing up the VP nomination then?

at least a few ye'd have to reckon. Harris ended up being a lot more canny than Warren imo in terms of bailing out well before she had a chance to lose her home state and I would be v unsurprised to see her get it

truly this was a banner night and is going to be a banner day as well as a banner week and a banner month and very likely a banner year, for "stop whining, you're HURTING THE CAUSE!" as if a) oh, you say have legitimate reasons to be worried about your future as well as the future of humanity (which thanks to climate change timeline is not hyperbole? oh, you say that you have depression? just stop being sad, it isn't hard!!"

Biden/ Yang 2020. Because Hey, Fuck It

xpost You can still be worried, and you can keep fighting and campaigning for what you want. The varied responses to the covid outbreak show the importance and impact of local government.

We've been pretty consistent on ILX in documenting (and expressing) hatred and contempt for Trump. I think it should not be surprising that hatred and contempt for Trump should be driving votes and turnout. Fingers crossed it's enough.

yeah Biden's VP pick is going to be very important, I mean I can barely see him making it to November much less a second term

the bummer is that Trump's idiocy doesn't really cost him anything because he's not expected to "govern" per se

This is true but i think there's a distinction to be made between mental sharpness as proof of ability to govern and mental sharpness as a weapon to be used against opponents. Trump has never had the former but he was at least fairly effective with the latter a while back. He seems much less coherent now.

a minor celebrity I previously liked is backing Biden now on the basis that he'll have Harris as VP, also he thinks Sanders can't beat Trump, it's a bit depressing to read his feed and he has joined the massive list of the unfollowed, not that anyone cares I suppose

Is it Michael Ian Black

nope

As long as we are wildly speculating, I would lol if Biden picked Harris as VP, won the election, and then immediately resigned.

I would love to see that if only for the GOP reaction.

"Biden! Burisma! 25th Amendment! We have to ..."

"OK, I resign. Here's your new president."

"Well, we need to ... oh."

is there solid polling backing the "Bernie would beat Trump and Biden wouldn't" theory

idk the thing that worries me is that there's a lot of centrist types who dislike Donald Trump (even though they may have voted for him in 2016) who don't really like either Dem candidate but still say "well I'm not going to vote for ~~*sOcIaLiSm*~~ so if it's Bernie I'll be forced to vote Trump", which is why certain H2H polls might look better for Biden, when in reality they're all gonna pull the level for Trump anyway because "well the economy was good"

I'm going to assume anyone that voted for Trump before is going to vote for him again.

is there solid polling backing the "Bernie would beat Trump and Biden wouldn't" theory

idk the thing that worries me is that there's a lot of centrist types who dislike Donald Trump (even though they may have voted for him in 2016) who don't really like either Dem candidate but still say "well I'm not going to vote for ~~*sOcIaLiSm*~~ so if it's Bernie I'll be forced to vote Trump", which is why certain H2H polls might look better for Biden, when in reality they're all gonna pull the level for Trump anyway because "well the economy was good"

― frogbs, Wednesday, March 11, 2020 8:45 AM (fifty seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

there is head-to-head polling of them against trump showing them roughly equal (usually sanders has a slight lead, though that's since flipped toward biden, equally slightly)

was good

a lot of centrist types who dislike Donald Trump (even though they may have voted for him in 2016) who don't really like either Dem candidate but still say "well I'm not going to vote for ~~*sOcIaLiSm*~~ so if it's Bernie I'll be forced to vote Trump"

I think the danger is less that centrists would vote for Trump instead but that they won't vote, period.

both biden and trump are going to live to be a hundred years old

I think the danger is less that centrists would vote for Trump instead but that they won't vote, period.

This is correct, I think. If Biden turns out to be doddering and shaky, it's not hard to imagine it depressing turnout.

i feel like "Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump" has quietly melted away to "Americans just really hate Trump so Biden will win"

melted, yes

we ain't fakin'
whole lotta meltin' going on

I do think Biden is the candidate most likely to beat Trump, or to at least take a swing at him if he's still wily enough to dodge his way through secret service.

"a minor celebrity i previously liked" is quite the display name candidate, kudos

i feel like "Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump" has quietly melted away to "Americans just really hate Trump so Biden will win"

If you follow the Bitecofer analysis -- which I'm going with for now because it makes as much sense as anything, and it will make me feel better for the next long 8 months -- then that has always been the right way to look at it.

Not being super enthusiastic about either Bernie or Biden (tho much more personally inclined to Bernie fwiw), I've never thought it mattered much which one of them got nominated because they both have pretty serious flaws and also some evident electoral strengths. But by definition the most electable person is the one who gets the nomination (i.e. at this point Biden), because to be electable you have to actually be on the ballot. If Bernie was the "most electable," he needed to start by actually winning the nomination.

I think the election is statistically and probability-wise winnable by pretty much any breathing candidate on the Democratic line. That doesn't mean they will win it, but there's nothing right now that says they can't.

nothing against Bitecofer or her thesis but I wonder if it would be so popularly cited if it didn't line up with ppl's hopes and (understandable) desire to mentally check out from this whole thing

Does anyone seriously floating the bait-switch "Biden wins, then immediately resigns" fantasy actually think that's anything other than a disaster for Dem long-range prospects?

nothing against Bitecofer or her thesis but I wonder if it would be so popularly cited if it didn't line up with ppl's hopes and (understandable) desire to mentally check out from this whole thing

It also makes Chuck Todd look like a gaping asshole, which everyone likes.

true, the great unifier

Does anyone seriously floating the bait-switch "Biden wins, then immediately resigns" fantasy actually think that's anything other than a disaster for Dem long-range prospects?

I would argue that anyone seriously floating that theory isn’t thinking at all

Yeah, who in the word is seriously floating that idea?

World

i believe that biden could absolutely win the election, even if trump wasn't currently badly bungling an epidemic response and there wasn't a recession on the way, but i also believe he's absolutely capable of throwing victory away in a worse manner than clinton did.

xps that one minor celebrity you used to like is.

Biden polling just slightly higher than Bernie against Trump nationally except in Wisconsin, where he's losing to Trump and Bernie's up

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html#polls

Checked in on MCIUTL, they have not said they think Biden will quit and hand over the presidency, however they have shared this, ugh

Oh shit. Bernie got checked. pic.twitter.com/Ke3gtBuIeV

— ⚖️ Bianca DeLaRosa⚖️ (@KHiveQueenB) March 9, 2020

nothing against Bitecofer or her thesis but I wonder if it would be so popularly cited if it didn't line up with ppl's hopes and (understandable) desire to mentally check out from this whole thing

It has that appeal. But it also makes sense and has some data behind it, and based on my anecdotal evidence and general sense of things (which is of no greater value than anyone else's), there is a tremendous amount of fuck-trumpism out there in the potential Democratic electorate, which is much stronger and more broadly based than the support for any particular candidate. During Bloomberg's brief surge a month ago, I said that the one thing he was getting right that I wasn't seeing or hearing enough of (especially from the Bernie camp) is that that election is about beating Trump, not destroying the Democratic establishment. Bernie's base always seemed split between those goals, or at least to see them as of equal weight, and that was a misread of the 2020 primary voter. IMHO.

based on my feeeelings I figure their chances against Trump are both pretty good, but for different reasons. besides just general distaste for trump obv.

but then what? I know lots of ppl are dismissive of Bernie’s version of movement politics, but I think Trump can actually be instructive here. E.g., most of the other GOP candidates, had they been elected instead of Trump, would have probably nominated Kavanaugh. But then quickly moved on to the next Federalist-approved dipshit once he became toxic. Trump’s media and rally barnstorming turned Bawlin Brett into a conservative folk hero. And now we’re stuck with him until I’m probably close to dead.

Now what if we were to use those kinds of powers for Good? Learn from the GOP imo. Most people hate their fucking guts and they Still Win (obv electoral college and rural state senate advantages, not to mention voter suppression play a role, too, but just like go with me here).

Clearly the under 40 are m/l on board. I think boomers would come around, too out of some RESPECT ARE PRESIDENT impulses. Idk. Just something to think about in 2024... when it’s probably too late lol fml

Bernie's base always seemed split between those goals, or at least to see them as of equal weight, and that was a misread of the 2020 primary voter. IMHO.

They didn't/don't feel that way as a strategy for winning or a "read" of anyone ftr xp

someone posted an article arguing that nominating Biden gives Dems the best chance at taking the Senate, which IMO is probably more important anyway

They didn't/don't feel that way as a strategy for winning or a "read" of anyone ftr xp

― bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.),

Anecdotal evidence, etc, but the Latinx Sanders voters whom I'm acquainted with loathe "The DNC" more than Trump.

Regardless of which they hate more, my point is it wasn't out of some strategic positioning or an attempt to predict what "the average primary voter" values

still waiting on this fabled method of not being sad

(or at least one that does not cost hundreds of dollars per month, which is in fact a large part of why I am not happy about the prospect of that cost remaining hundreds of dollars per month)

still waiting on this fabled method of not being sad

― like, I’m eating an elephant head (katherine),

I listen to Paramore.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dn8YVyQUwAIlmXE.jpg

my point is it wasn't out of some strategic positioning or an attempt to predict what "the average primary voter" values

Sure. It's just that the "average primary voter" is who you need (or some number of them) to win a primary. Anyway. Point being that there are way more people activated/motivated to beat Trump than to destroy the DNC, which is why the Bitcofer thesis may hold true. Or not! But I think it's a competitive election regardless of who's on the D line.