2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

I did not watch the press conference though, so dunno what questions these turds were bubbling out

idg what your point is. I'm not sure the US govt has the authority to quarantine non-US nationals on American soil...?

xps

and by "loads of people" do you mean "the military" and "medical professionals"? because that's hardly the "general population"

On the vote percentage: If overall turnout went up, yes that would dilute the youth vote and probably work against Sanders, but it doesn't necessarily follow that those were voters motivated by "fear of socialism" or anti-Bernie bile. It could more likely mean that they're fuckin pissed at Trump and ready to get rid of him. Which would be good news for November, even if it works against Bernie in the primary.

Democratic turnout overall in my county on Super Tuesday was up massively from the 2016 primary, by nearly 50 percent. I think those are mostly fired-up anti-Trump voters. (Biden won 32 percent, Bernie 31, the rest split the rest.)

Sorry I did that math wrong, it was up 84 percent overall.

given COVID and a precarious economy, predicting what bodes well for November seems like a fool's errand. Maybe those olds are as fired up as 2018 to oust Trump, maybe they're offset by the dread Berniebros/young voters actually staying home/voting third party, maybe Senate Burisma hearings stick, maybe Joe melts down onstage and starts doing racist impressions.

Has there been an election this century where the opposition party wasn't fired up to beat the other side as much as anything? from a New Yorker column during the 2004 primary -

Democrats say that what they are seeking above all this year is a candidate who can beat Bush, and while Dean, campaigning as an antiwar, anti-establishment, outsider maverick, tapped the leaderless Party’s hot anger, the stolid war hero Kerry, with twenty years of experience in the foreign and domestic policy debates of the Senate, better fit the cold calculus of electability.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/152840/santorum-expands-lead-romney-gets-electability-vote.aspx

santorum-expands

I knew this run on toilet paper was gonna bite us on the ass.

There are definite parallels to 2004. W. absolutely motivated and activated the whole spectrum of the left, from hard-left to center. And they almost beat him but didn't quite. I think the motivation and activation is even higher this year, also all along that spectrum, and the incumbent is even more abhorred. So that should be a formula to win an election. But it's all in the execution. The left is more fractious this year, leaving liberals like me torn between trying to rein in the corporatists on one side and the socialists on the other -- and failing miserably, which is how you end up with Joe damn Biden, who is the epitome of every bad thing anyone says about liberals. (Warren was the prog-liberal choice, and you see how she ended up, so now we're just kind of like, being all Gen X and sighing at it all.)

Still, it's a winnable election. I know you have to win the electoral college, but there are plenty of votes sitting out there.

idg what your point is.

my point was only that two days ago the President openly admitted that he had been keeping ppl imprisoned on the boat in order to juke the stats, so it doesn't seem unreasonable for journalists to ask questions about it at a press conference, especially when 45% of those already tested on the boat turned out to have the 'vid

you're not going to get a useful answer, but you're not going to get a useful answer about any of the "other shit" either so idk why this one shouldn't be asked about

I’m sorry that this is a tweet and I’m sorry about the caption, but here’s a fuller video of that biden exchange. he starts by telling a woman to “shush” (adding a second “shush” for emphasis), gives a rambling, incoherent answer, then threatens to fight the guy before walking away.

.@neeratanden here’s joe biden telling a woman to shush, do you think that’s bad y/n pic.twitter.com/vMqIhKsBJ6

— the girl with the🩸🦷 tattoo (@Vanessa_ABee) March 10, 2020

Neera was busy on MSNBC with Bret Stephens today, she won't have time to comment

I don't know if it matters but I think he's shushing his press secretary or handler, not some random woman. The whole exchange actually makes more sense in context, it's just another damn gun argument. Biden's kinda mushy but he has a consistent point, which the other guy clearly gets because they're both speaking in this coded language of gun control arguments. I can give you way worse things to be mad Biden about than arguing with a gun nut.

The point is its not “a couple hundred infected people” ( its 21) and they arent “being released into general population”. This kind of distortion is not helpful.

Xps

trust me I know. I think everyone has made their peace with the shiftiness of his record. I just watch that and think about what the next eight months are going to look like, and it’s not a great thought!

"Shush" is pretty bad whether it's a staffer (it was) or not. "I got this" or "let me talk to him."

( its 21)

it's 21 out of 45 tested, but I agree my flippancy was unhelpful inasmuch as it distracted from the fact that it's okay for journalists to ask questions at press conferences

in fact it may be obligatory for serious journalists

Missouri goes to Biden.

Turnout is high all around.

Re: that boat, it's been brought up unprompted at every press conference, iirc, like a riveting boy down the well rescue, and not like literally every city wasn't dealing with its own covid concerns.

The generational difference between Bernie and Biden voters in the Missouri exit poll data is just crazy. https://t.co/YdHsC0ujD8 pic.twitter.com/Zin6uoE0mX

— Sasha Samberg-Champion (@ssamcham) March 11, 2020

can't blame the youths for Gabbard

if Warren had endorsed him her 1% would have made Bernie's results nicer

Josh - ?? Are you saying that journalists should only ask questions on topics which Trump prompts them to? Or they shouldn't have bothered to ask about the boat which Trump brought up unprompted at his last coronavirus press event in which two days ago the President openly admitted that he had been keeping ppl imprisoned on the boat in order to juke the stats because he had already admitted it?

somehow I suspect if Warren hadn't dropped out she might have gotten more than 1%, just a hunch

Michigan is...overperforming county by county for Biden vs Clinton's totals in 2016, according to Steve Kornacki.

Neera celebrating people under 44's disaffection in the replies is extremely on-brand.

yeah can we stop downplaying the boost Bernie would have gotten from an endorsement?

If there’s a takeaway from the Biden phenomenon it’s that a well-timed endorsement can change the whole game

is it?

Would those endorsements have depressed African American turnout or encouraged more young people?

I don't ask cynically.

also I was just making a 69 joke, I do not actually believe that exactly 1% of total voters in the specific 18-44 demographic would have voted for Warren if she was still running, and was in fact making fun of that sort of calculus

nice

the Clyburn endorsement appears to have been game changing

Certainly Buttigieg and to a lesser degree Klob sent a not insignificant # of voters to Biden who might not have gone there otherwise—considering how close TX is (and remains!) I don’t think this is some kind of far-out idea

All right, I think I'm finally willing to accept that people are voting for Biden in the primaries because of Obama warm fuzzies and those same people will vote for Biden in the actual election because of Obama warm fuzzies and then it will be like this slow process where the perspectives of all of the people who are currently pumped will slowly slide closer to ours as they realize, hey, President Biden isn't quite what we expected and, hey, is it possible that he's been in the throes of dementia this whole time?! Because that is certainly not what we signed on for when we voted for this 77-year-old man, nossir.

I think you should try that approach on social media.

Would those endorsements have depressed African American turnout or encouraged more young people?

one more time: it wouldn't have made Bernie win, it just would have given the left a better bargaining position

xp The people who dug Reagan were unperturbed by his evident dementia and still, even now, remember his administration with an overwhelming put-this-guy's-face-on-a-coin level of fondness. I think if Biden wins, the people who dig Biden are gonna keep on digging President Biden.

They're all too fucking old, and if they aren't losing it now, all three of them could be losing it in a month, a year, two years ...

If the ceiling on people who don't like the Democratic Party but vote for it anyway is 30-35%, eventually they'll have to decline to 'vote blue no matter who' in greater numbers to have their needs and desires listened to, if not met.

okay what happens in your world if the hostage taking works and then the moderates start hostage taking and not voting for the democrats

Thank goodness for Chris Hayes for being the only MSNBC person to mention the Dems "will have a real problem" if the Biden generation can't address "climate change" and problems since the Great Recession among those under 35.

I think it's just like...people who vote for a cloud will continue to insist that said cloud looks like, say, a jaunty jackrabbit frolicking in meadow, no matter how much that cloud may drift or dissipate over time. It's THEIR fucken cloud and they get to define its shape, reality be damned.

okay what happens in your world if the hostage taking works and then the moderates start hostage taking and not voting for the democrats

Guess we'll see who blinks first?

I think if we do manage to take the senate in the fall, the traumatic bisection of the democratic party will be following sometime soon thereafter.

Not that it matters, enough will fall in line to not happen in the foreseeable future - and the left will get blamed regardless if Dementia Joe loses.

Is it bad that I want Biden to go on a tour of telling potential voters that they are full of shit?

that should be his convention speech

Biden wins Michigan.

Sanders loses white vote by six percent.

Biden easily wins the infamous Macomb "Reagan Democrat" County by 18 points.

Biden's even winning the rural counties in which Sanders triumphed.

the Clyburn endorsement appears to have been game changing

DA MAYUN WHO SAVED DA DEMOCRAHTIC PAWTY acc to that great statesman James Carville