2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

Clinton "won" the debates if we're thinking objectively but the actual audience of the debates frequently applauded trump's points loudly, his supporters thought he won

I strongly suspect any regular posters itt could "win" a debate with Trump tbh

Agreed, they're pretty different in how they manifest. You can see through Trumps stuff sure, but there weren't really any gaffes in that way.

But maybe in some sense the same is weirdly beginning to be true of Biden. We were told 6 months ago that he was struggling mentally, but now he's the nominee we're told thats no longer the case, and that has an effect. Through filtered media we don't hear the sounds we hear what we're told are the sounds. No one is immune to that

I strongly suspect any regular posters itt could "win" a debate with Trump tbh

My dad is very like Trump (psychologically, not politically). "winning" a debate with him would be absolutely impossible

How long before Biden brings up his stuttering struggles to try to paint the concerned as doing unwoke ableism

you're a month late
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/politics/joe-biden-stutter/index.html

anvil, has anyone tried telling your dad they were "going to go outside with your ass"? Big Joe Style

me watching election results tomorrow pic.twitter.com/BShbLjN75f

— Peter Labuza (@labuzamovies) March 10, 2020

if only biden was as badass as palpatine

Clinton "won" the debates if we're thinking objectively but the actual audience of the debates frequently applauded trump's points loudly, his supporters thought he won

the crowd response certainly played how it was perceived, whether viewers were aware of the effect or not. that's why i thought it was buuuuuuuullshit that the first primary debate with bloomberg was filled with people who purchased VIP tickets; friends of the campaigns, cheering and booing the different candidates that they're financially backing. that is debate malpractice. who knows how the crowds were selected for the debates back in 2016, but i'm sure that in the battle between media outlets concerned about ratings and people concerned about "fair" perceptions of debates, the the media outlets won

the crowd response certainly "affected" how it was perceived

my typos are fucking bonkers these days, like intrusions from completely different thoughts. i am becoming reptile man

she also "won" the election. it just didn't matter

Ok I was as pro-Hillz as anyone here (probably more). But the "she won the popular vote" thing is starting to get played out.

Both candidates knew the rules going in; neither campaign thought it was a winner-take-all popular vote contest; both understood the concept of the electoral college.

If it were a popular-vote contest, both would have concentrated their efforts in California and New York (where actual people live). It wasn't. Trump's campaign simply gamed the system better than Clinton's. I kinda think Democrats would do well to focus on that - and get better at gaming electoral math - rather than repeating "bUt ShE WoN by ThrEe mIlliOn vOtEs" until the end of time

Sorry

Rant over

sure, i get all that. but how many more times have you heard 2016 post-mortems that make it sound like clinton got absolutely crushed? her winning the popular vote doesn't change the outcome, but it's still a relevant point that more people voted for her

it's worth regularly pointing out that the electoral college is bullshit and should be abolished, in case anyone is ever in a position to abolish it

Already lying about his record re: Iraq

Also claimed that he was arrested in Soweto for trying to see Mandela in prison.


"Guess what? You're not allowed to own any weapon. I'm not taking your gun away at all."

With emphasis added, it makes perfect sense (which I say as someone who wishes all guns were indeed taken away)

how does an italic that doesn't change the meaning of the first sentence at all make the following sentence not contradict the first one?

he means you can't own any type of weapon

just like free speech doesn't mean you can say any thing.

motivated reading making things hard.

bernie canceled by coronavirus

ROMULUS, Mich. — In the first major cancellation of the presidential campaign because of concerns about the coronavirus, Senator Bernie Sanders called off his planned primary night rally, his campaign said Tuesday.

“Out of concern for public health and safety, we are canceling tonight’s rally in Cleveland,” said Mike Casca, a campaign spokesman. “We are heeding the public warnings from Ohio state officials, who have communicated concern about holding large, indoor events during the coronavirus outbreak. Senator Sanders would like to express his regret to the thousands of Ohioans who had planned to attend the event tonight.”

Mr. Casca added: “All future Bernie 2020 events will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.”

Eeek

2016 vs. 2020: Share of Dem primary/caucus electorate under 30

IA 18% ('16) => 24% ('20)
NH 19% => 13%
NV 18% => 17%
SC 15% => 11%
AL 14% => 10%
MA 19% => 16%
NC 18% => 14%
TN 15% => 11%
TX 20% => 15%
VA 16% => 13%
VT 15% => 11%

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) March 10, 2020

all generations fucking blow chunks

But but but Bernie will motivate the youth vote and that will save us

although, i guess that's just percentages. maybe just as many young people showed up but old people afraid of socialist takeovers really increased their turnout? but given that old people afraid of change show up for EVERY election, i'm gonna blame it on the youngsters

The key constituency is the black vote: earn it and you're almost set; if you don't, fuck it. He had the youth and older progressives in 2016 and lost; he has them now and will still lose. Why? The black vote. You need the three, which Obama had in 2008 and to a lesser extent in 2012.

the olds are showin up in Biden-powered scooters

focusing on "under 30" could distort this picture a bit imo and deserves a little more consideration. we millennials ain't kids no more. also people who voted for bernie as 26 year olds probably turned out to vote for him again as 30 year olds but would escape this metric. mocking the straw-man idea that "the youth vote was supposed to save bernie, ha ha ha" is no more enlightening now than the first eight hundred times it's been posted on this board.

He absolutely did bring out the youth vote; the raw data shows it. It's that the old people -- black and white -- weren't convinced and showed up in greater numbers for Biden.

going off on casino's point, millenials are an actual population bump so the percentage of america that's 18-30 is probably smaller than it was 4 years ago. even if 20 somethings turned out at the same rate as they did 4 years ago, they'd make less of an impact on the total.

what do you think he could have done to bring out the youths

like I'm genuinely curious because every damn election it seems like the 18-35 demo always overwhelmingly favors the best candidate but they don't vote in the same numbers as geriatrics

also they're less likely to be able to take time off to vote

just like free speech doesn't mean you can say any thing

ohhh right. tbf he should have said "you can't own just any old dang type'n thing sorta weapon you like" instead of a sentence that both means the thing he meant and the opposite of the thing he meant, if he was angling for an official Clear And Coherent rating from the (sic) Institute Of Malarkey

I find it weird how people talk about the turnout numbers so much and the actual demographic compositions so infrequently. the youth vote wasn't ever gonna get sanders elected cause there cause there aren't enough young people. there are a lot of old people. 'good with 20 somethings' + 'bad with 40 to 100 year olds' isn't a great trade-off, even ignoring the fact that old people sure love to vote.

that is otm

old ppl not wanting stuff to change shockah

it's because of all the hand gestures and the way he varies the space between his hands, measuring the problem and approximating the size of it for the audience

I can't tell how big a part of the shipping industry cruises are!

President Trump: "It will go away.  Just stay calm.  It will go away." pic.twitter.com/J8aF2Zb8v0

— The Hill (@thehill) March 10, 2020

It's gonna be a bitch when the olds decide another election for us and then immediately drop dead from the cov.

Turds in the presser keep focusing on the cruise ship in CA like that is particularly fore in mind, and not, like, all the other shit going on.

A couple of hundred possibly-infected people being released into genpop after the President literally tried to hide them for weeks probably should be fore in mind, amongst other shit

THE CONSUMER IS READY

A couple of hundred possibly-infected people being released into genpop

this is not what is happening, do keep up

The ship docked at pier 22 in the Port of Oakland just after noon at an 11-acre site enclosed with a fence. Tents were set up and at least 10 ambulances and 15 buses were parked in the containment area.

Federal and state officials have been making plans for flights and buses to whisk passengers aboard the boat to military bases or their home countries for a 14-day quarantine.

yes but "putting them in contact with loads of people and having them travel around the world before being quarantined" is still more like genpop than quarantining and testing before having them travel around the world

I did not watch the press conference though, so dunno what questions these turds were bubbling out

idg what your point is. I'm not sure the US govt has the authority to quarantine non-US nationals on American soil...?

xps

and by "loads of people" do you mean "the military" and "medical professionals"? because that's hardly the "general population"

On the vote percentage: If overall turnout went up, yes that would dilute the youth vote and probably work against Sanders, but it doesn't necessarily follow that those were voters motivated by "fear of socialism" or anti-Bernie bile. It could more likely mean that they're fuckin pissed at Trump and ready to get rid of him. Which would be good news for November, even if it works against Bernie in the primary.

Democratic turnout overall in my county on Super Tuesday was up massively from the 2016 primary, by nearly 50 percent. I think those are mostly fired-up anti-Trump voters. (Biden won 32 percent, Bernie 31, the rest split the rest.)

Sorry I did that math wrong, it was up 84 percent overall.

given COVID and a precarious economy, predicting what bodes well for November seems like a fool's errand. Maybe those olds are as fired up as 2018 to oust Trump, maybe they're offset by the dread Berniebros/young voters actually staying home/voting third party, maybe Senate Burisma hearings stick, maybe Joe melts down onstage and starts doing racist impressions.

Has there been an election this century where the opposition party wasn't fired up to beat the other side as much as anything? from a New Yorker column during the 2004 primary -

Democrats say that what they are seeking above all this year is a candidate who can beat Bush, and while Dean, campaigning as an antiwar, anti-establishment, outsider maverick, tapped the leaderless Party’s hot anger, the stolid war hero Kerry, with twenty years of experience in the foreign and domestic policy debates of the Senate, better fit the cold calculus of electability.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/152840/santorum-expands-lead-romney-gets-electability-vote.aspx

santorum-expands

I knew this run on toilet paper was gonna bite us on the ass.

There are definite parallels to 2004. W. absolutely motivated and activated the whole spectrum of the left, from hard-left to center. And they almost beat him but didn't quite. I think the motivation and activation is even higher this year, also all along that spectrum, and the incumbent is even more abhorred. So that should be a formula to win an election. But it's all in the execution. The left is more fractious this year, leaving liberals like me torn between trying to rein in the corporatists on one side and the socialists on the other -- and failing miserably, which is how you end up with Joe damn Biden, who is the epitome of every bad thing anyone says about liberals. (Warren was the prog-liberal choice, and you see how she ended up, so now we're just kind of like, being all Gen X and sighing at it all.)

Still, it's a winnable election. I know you have to win the electoral college, but there are plenty of votes sitting out there.