2020 Democratic presidential primary thread, pt 3: life is very long

Time to take a sip of coffee and read this:

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/03/26/democratic-party-cannot-hold/

Hilarious how out of date so much of this already is, and isn't. I like Tomasky, he should do stuff for the nyr daily blog.

And while the Vietnam debate was shattering to the party for a few years, wars eventually end

lol

A good summary of the weekend.

If you went from supporting Warren to supporting Biden, you didn't want a feminist president. You just wanted a woman. It's not the same thing. https://t.co/3AABgPTvDq

— Sarah Jones (@onesarahjones) March 9, 2020

new polls in Missouri, Mississippi, Arizona, and Michigan all show Biden at least +20. those first two are expected, but I gotta think Sanders had some hopes in AZ especially with the large Latino population, and Michigan seems practically must-win for him. if he gets blown out there tomorrow, I don't see how this thing isn't over.

The fivethirtyeight guide to the calendar is pretty clear that tomorrow is his best states: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-rest-of-the-primary-calendar-looks-for-biden-and-sanders/ There's a giant loss in Florida looming, and not a lot of hope after that. But he had worse odds in Michigan four years ago, so fingers crossed!

What happens if a nominee dies during the campaign?

You've seen Weekend at Bernie's, right?

(Don't be fooled by the title, the strategy can be applied to either candidate.)

in other news, the Working Families Party has switched their endorsement to Bernie, for whatever that's worth.

What happens if a nominee dies during the campaign?

If it's after the convention the VP pick would most certainly be the nominee

Very cool!

Biden’s team is considering Bloomberg to head the World Bank & Jamie Dimon for Treasury. Incredible https://t.co/ozKxkJMNMI

— Ibrahim (@ibrahimpols) March 9, 2020

fucking hell

top sources tell "Axios on HBO."

yeah ok sure

Really pushing the "can't be worse than Trump" card to the limit I see.

ffs!

Lmao axios is garbage

*If true*, as surprising as the sunrise.

When you let the Dems know you'll vote for ANYONE, you're gonna get the second-worst possible president.

there will be plenty to complain about in a biden administration we don't need to start with poorly sourced clickbaiting

millions of dems will think it’s safer than my number current number one candidate. feel the bern.

sorry if Axios is considered exceptionally dodgy, I guess we'll find out soon enough whether it's whole cloth BS or not xp

I’m not scrolling back to find who posted it here, but that sentiment analysis thing that purports to prove anything about the meanness of Bernie bros or anyone else Is absolute dogshit and it’s embarrassing to see otherwise rightly tech-skeptical people share it.

are we still arguing about this?

Axios is not trustworthy, but just in case it can never hurt to let everyone know Bloomberg is awful

This November, the stakes are too high. My presidential campaign is over, but I’m not about to sit on the sidelines. That’s why I’m supporting Collective Future in registering 500,000 Black American voters in 8 crucial states. This can be a game changer. https://t.co/gnT6Ni9NC9

— Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) March 9, 2020

I would walk through a blizzard just to vote against Trump, I just personally hate that big stupid sack of shit with such blinding fury and the whole culture he stands for so much that it would give me so much pleasure to see him lose

Good on Bloomberg (never thought I'd type that phrase).

Would have had a head start if you had done that from the beginning dipshit xp

^^^

Bloomberg does do good stuff with his money (not always), he's just a shitty presidential candidate that shouldn't have that much money

same goes for Steyer, although he hasn't done nearly the shitty number of things Bloomberg has.

it's over:
https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/09/polls-joe-biden-holds-lead-over-bernie-sanders-michigan-primaries/4994142002/

If true, do you (does anyone?) think Sanders will just pull the plug after this week, or is he sticking it out to the bitter end?

“Something happened on Super Tuesday with (other) candidates getting out and people are all of a sudden questioning Bernie’s positions on issues,” said Bernie Porn, pollster for Lansing-based EPIC-MRA, which conducted the survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters between Wednesday and Friday. “If anything, it may be low in terms of the percentage that Biden may get.”

Biden now 24/25 according to 538.

or is he sticking it out to the bitter end?

well let's see based on past behavior...

If true, do you (does anyone?) think Sanders will just pull the plug after this week, or is he sticking it out to the bitter end?

more delegates = more of a case that a significant chunk of the Dem electorate wants at least *some* progressive policy/representation. winning ain't everything. (this is why Warren not backing him bugs me, not because I think she could make the difference btwn winning and losing.) if he's not torching the bridge - he's been steadily calling Biden his friend, saying he could "absolutely" beat Trump etc - why not stick around?

anyone who thinks Bernie won't endorse Biden when it's all over (as I've seen some worry about) hasn't been paying attention

Yeah but what if the bros end up voting for Trump instead, like they did last time, amirite?

I have no doubt Bernie will endorse and campaign for Biden

Well, let's see, polling in Michigan has been bad.

I mean, he eventually endorsed Clinton, but there was a feeling (or probably more accurately, an accusation) he did so reluctantly or half-heartedly. That feels like a million years ago now, though, and for all we know his support *did* help her and she would have done even worse without him.

he made clear in an interview last week (Maddow?) that he would support the nominee 100 percent

He'll be accused of that no matter what he does or how enthusiastic his support is. xp

Wait, no, his polling in Michigan is worse than last time... Sorry...

going Joe Biden is like going to 100% treasuries. not an “investment”… but looking for _any_ harbor. that’s where we at. it ain’t my vote but it ain’t on me kiddos.

fwiw in the same article:

Four years ago, the Free Press and EPIC-MRA reported results of a poll the weekend ahead of that year’s Democratic primary that showed Hillary Clinton with a 25-point lead on Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont. It was one of several late-breaking polls that showed the former secretary of state with such a lead, though calling on the Free Press' poll concluded about a week before that election.

Sanders went on to win a narrow 1.4-percentage-point victory in the primary, however, as younger voters, who overwhelmingly supported Sanders, came out in much greater numbers than expected and he ran up large vote totals outside metro Detroit compared with Clinton. It was a signature surprise win for Sanders and one that Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, which analyzes statistical and polling data, said could count among “the greatest polling errors in primary history.”

lol buy gold liquor and tobacco and weed

I feel pretty safe in saying it's not gonna happen this time.

Okay, another attempt at a bright side: If Sanders loses as badly as it looks like he will be losing, that makes it harder to paint him as a spoiler!

maybe not. (fight fight fight) xp