Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

i maybe imagine most of my institutionalism is rooted in my feelings about failure mode analyses, by which I mean revolution can either be good, or it can turn out terrible. given the wide range of possibilities in human political order, what we have had has been more stable, tho still v unfair, than usual.

so that said, my support for orderly change is not a devotion to incrementalism at all— rather, “get who you prefer in office. force them to enact what you need. now do it again.” so it is not incremental-“ism,” it is an acceptance of the incremental.

undeniably, it’s also a bit of fearful avoidance of catastrophic disorder. the advantage at that point seems to always seems to go even more abruptly to the privileged and wealthy. NB also, I believe that the benefits of incremental change may often accrue to the privileged and wealthy— hello to the last 40 years of the GOP. we are at the precipice of even worse, at which point who knows what is necessary.

peace to those who are suffering so that “only revolution is sufficient,” I think I understand those feelings, that they are legit and real. i’m still all bernie for his objectives. i don’t think he’d end up as bad at his job as like, a chávez de facto petrogarchy.

my advice is not useful, but I’d focus on persuading people to “you can have it so much better.” Feel like, you get more mileage from “hope and change-y” shit than “eh, we KNEW you are not our allies, we just gonna win without you.”

counterpoint we live in a petrogarchy, he might as well at least be a socialist.

Also, Biden is marked a no on "Focus deportation on criminals and national security threats." This is what it says on his website

"In a departure from their predecessors, the Obama-Biden administration took steps to prioritize enforcement resources on removing threats to national security and public safety, not families. It also issued guidance designed to end mass work-place raids and to prevent enforcement activities at sensitive locations such as schools, hospitals, and places of worship."

and here is a quote from three weeks ago:

"As the Nevada caucus results poured in and the former vice-president’s distant second-place finish seemed imminent, his campaign released a joint statement with Latino Victory Fund, an influential political action committee that endorsed Biden earlier last week, committing to a total moratorium on deportations during his first 100 days as president. This seemed to contradict a claim made just hours earlier by one of Biden’s campaign advisers to BuzzFeed News. “(Enforcement) efforts will be narrowly targeted to those who commit a felony offense in the United States or who present a national security threat,” the adviser reportedly said."

So here I think all three Democrats actually agree, and I agree with them.

eephus! i am kind of opposite. I agree with every single thing on bernie's platform (although I personally have GOP shades of why can't people be responsible and make better choices exasperation) but I know that not everyone was born into the same lot and that makes the ultimate difference. But I still thought Warren was a much better candidate in almost every other way. Hopefully she will back Bernie but I also totally empathize with why she would not.

xp

“You should vote for Trump,” Joe Biden tells @CosechaMovement protester Carlos Rojas at tonight’s town hall in Greenwood, S.C.

Rojas and other protesters from the group were criticizing Obama-era deportations and asked Biden to say he’d end all deportations — which he rejected. pic.twitter.com/od188WIlrQ

— Eric Bradner (@ericbradner) November 22, 2019

I agree with Obama and Biden that we should deport the tiny fraction of undocumented people who are in jail for raping and murdering. So does Sanders, per his campaign manager. "“We’re talking about … violent criminals (sitting) in jail or prison right now, upon their, the end of whatever sentence they may currently have, they would be deported,”

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/biden-and-bernie-pivot-on-deportations.html

I do not agree that Carlos Rojas should vote for Trump.

Were there 3 million cases like that?

I highly doubt it.

so presumably his lack of a checkmark there is based on actions not words

"I agree with Obama and Biden that we should deport the tiny fraction of undocumented people who are in jail for raping and murdering. So does Sanders, per his campaign manager. "“We’re talking about … violent criminals (sitting) in jail or prison right now, upon their, the end of whatever sentence they may currently have, they would be deported,”"

A lot of people in the Sanders movement would go against these narratives and say so. Potential of discourse changing around a lot of issues. Its the danger of any kind of shift rather than #revolution.

Sanders has plenty of problematic history on immigration, including voting for an amendment supporting the Minutemen vigilante patrols, back in his "tough on crime" days.

And guns issues, iirc.

The only revolution I really want right now is significantly more people voting democratic than GOP in every election, local and national, going forward.

Sanders has plenty of problematic history on immigration

nobody's perfect, but pretty much everyone looks good on this next to the deporter in chief's right-hand man imo

Pence?

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obamas-deportation-policy-numbers/story?id=41715661

I'd rather not get too hung up on the past when the present is beyond the pale.

The past is one of the options being offered up.

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/obama-record-deportations-deporter-chief-or-not

If anyone thinks Biden will be as bad as Trump, because Obama, they are welcome to that opinion.

The only revolution I really want right now is significantly more people voting democratic than GOP in every election, local and national, going forward.

― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 6 March 2020 bookmarkflaglink

That's not a revolution, nor is there any sense of urgency on what will need to be done. That's not a strategy for Democrat domination.

Every time anyone talks about Bernie as an “old white man” I’m going to remember that nazis went to his rally and hung a swastika

— Gita Jackson, Mrs. Dr. Caspar Darling (@xoxogossipgita) March 6, 2020

I think the problem that I keep having with my more moderate “but the norms! civility! cheeeto!” friends is that they just don’t appreciate how the Democratic establishment has been infiltrated and taken over by moderate conservatives over our lifetime. Not in any conspiratorial way (per se), but it’s simply what’s going to happen when your focus become corporate and billionaire donors in the neolib era.

As mentioned upthread, the best tactic would be to invoke the OG New Deal.

If anyone thinks Biden will be as bad as Trump, because Obama, they are welcome to that opinion.

Kindly point out where anyone said this thx

If anyone thinks Biden will be as bad as Trump, because Obama, they are welcome to that opinion.

Elizabeth Warren urged by National Organization for Women not to endorse Bernie Sanders, told he has "done next to nothing for women" https://t.co/1jeCk8xQtA

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) March 6, 2020

still inclined to think she won't endorse anyone (which in practice would be functionally identical to a Biden endorsement imho)

Why would not endorsing anybody be equivalent to endorsing Biden?

I've found Sanders' supporters insufferable this time (and last), and was all-in on Warren, but since she's no longer an option, I just sent my absentee ballot for Sanders. I'm sorry that he's the best option we have at the moment.

Getting one last vote in?

This is sobering, the whole thread:

I've talked to TOO MANY black Southern voters this week (and during my life) I wanna stop and explain the concept of "the establishment" to some people and why a lot of black Southern voters will NEVER vote for Bernie.

— michaelharriot (@michaelharriot) March 6, 2020

Why would not endorsing anybody be equivalent to endorsing Biden?

Agree completely with Simon. When you're philosophically much, much closer to the one candidate than the other and don't endorse, there are a whole bunch of conclusions implicit in that, almost all of them not good for the candidate who's close to you.

No I totally agree that the linked articles, especially the one from the Migration Policy Institute, were very useful and convinced me that "the Obama-Biden administration took steps to prioritize enforcement resources on removing threats to national security and public safety, not families" is only sort of accurate -- it sounds like the main priority was the same as always, locating people who just crossed very recently and taking them back (fewer in number than under previous administrations but also under circumstances where a lot fewer people were arriving in the first place) -- but that among people who had established themselves in the United States (e.g. who had families here) the overwhelming majority were people who had committed serious crimes, by contrast with the present admin who does it because they know it looks good to their base. So yes -- it does seem like a Sanders administration compared to a Biden administration might do substantially less immediate removal/return of people who are migrating to the United States now, while both would drastically curtail the Trump-era practice of deporting established residents who aren't felons. I withdraw my objection to that line of the chart!

xpost with self, it’s tough though, because I honestly do think a healthy majority of boomers just really dngaf, even libs. many benefited from post-Depression “socialism”, even if just second hand, and have calculated that it’s not at all in their interest to extend those benefits to the people who come after them.

Being a white Southerner, my go to explanation is just straight up post-CR racism, but there’s been a constant, incredibly well-funded, often times “non-partisan”(foh) propaganda machine that has provided them effective pithy, ‘just good horse sense’ talking points of why they’re morally bound to fuck over everyone and everything on their way out.

Why would not endorsing anybody be equivalent to endorsing Biden?

At this point the things you do help one candidate or the other. Biden gains v little from a Warren endorsement as he has endorsements up the wazoo already from people with more backers than Warren, whereas Bernie would benefit a fair bit as he lacks endorsements and her people are hypothetically reachable at least on policy grounds. Also, his platform conspicuously aligns with her stated political goals very neatly, to the extent that many tried to market her as politically "identical" (or close to it), so a non-endorsement would reinforce the "he's too risky" narrative already widely believed by many.

Tl;dr A non-endorsement might appear "neutral" but the effects would not be

or what clemenza said lol

I don't mean any offense to anyone or any of the opinions on this thread. People can vote for and support whomever they want, obviously. I fully plan to support Joe Biden if he is the nominee. I also fully plan to support Sanders if he is the nominee. I would vote for either in a heartbeat. Sometimes I get the impression from Sanders supporters that they would not vote for Biden at all, which is of course also their prerogative.

a certain % wouldn't, just as PUMAs didn't go for Obama. it happens. I'm not convinced it's an aberration.

it is unbelievable to watch this video and to think that Warren has sat on her would-be endorsement in such a crucial election pic.twitter.com/c9sESmISGV

— Dr. Manhattan 🇳🇬 (@TheNewThinkerr) March 6, 2020

Its weird to think stuff like this really wasn't all that long ago

what a difference a campaign season and thousands of assholes make

I would consider not voting for Biden if there happens to be someone on the ballot in my state I want to be president more than him (I doubt socialist alternative will put someone on the ballot if the nominee isn’t Sanders) but I wouldn’t leave it blank.

only meant to post the clip itself but when you click through to the orig it just takes to main twitter account, never quite worked out why it doesnt go to the correct tweet when that happens

This is sobering, the whole thread:

Even though my dad's a white southerner he feels the same way about Bernie: he's not a Democrat. And in my dad's mind if you're not a Democrat you're not standing in solidarity with the team that's trying to fight the fascists. You're doing some quixotic thing over here instead. That's why he's a staunch AFL-CIO guy too despite all of their historical problems partic with women and people of color. This time he voted for Bernie - but he had to be dragged kicking and screaming by my sister and the local DSA chapter (of which he's a member). And in his mind it was always just for the primary. Just so on the off-chance Bernie got the nom he could say 'I voted for him'. Not saying this is the right way to think but it's about more than just blind tribalism: it's tribalism as the most practical way of organizing opposition and anybody who doesn't want to play, or has historically not played ball, is suspect.

Man, when you have to drag a registered DSA member union guy to the polls to vote for Sanders ...

That Michael Harriot thing is great. It echoes a lot (ugh, my own cynicism and feelings that he would quickly throw under the bus stuff I deeply care about to get get his white whale). I think the switch flipped when he decided to run again and not put his efforts backing another candidate (it didn't have to be Warren).

This is sobering, the whole thread:

this is exactly what I was getting at in that flamewar the other day with milo and silby - that you can't separate black Southern Dem voters from the Dem "establishment", and when someone (ie Bernie) attacks the "establishment" they feel it's an attack on them. And in some ways they are right, you take away the structure that supports someone like Clyburn, however corrupt you may think it is, and their power diminishes. And arguing that Bernie's way will deliver for those voters through a different mechanism/structure sounds suspect to them (and to me too, frankly)

If you can imagine a person, they exist. People are idiosyncratic. xxp

(Michael Harriot and the Root are hardly uninterested or representative parties.)

I think the switch flipped when he decided to run again and not put his efforts backing another candidate (it didn't have to be Warren).

If the thread is right, and its starting to look like it might be - who would be the person that could have prevailed, who shoul Bernie have dropped out and backed?

I am not this fanfic speculator here that wants to just increase anxiety for no reason. All I know is that him running again was going to invariably draw in all the same bad blood of 2016, he's older, all of us have gotten older, more cynical. He has to also change with the times.

I don't think he should have run again. I wish Biden hadn't run, too.

totally. fucking groundhog day for the rest of my life.