Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

@Fred: Ezra Klein makes a similar point:

In recent weeks, Biden has been racking up endorsements from Democratic Party heavyweights. Days before the crucial South Carolina primary, Rep. Jim Clyburn blessed Biden — giving him the single most important endorsement a Democrat can win in South Carolina. Biden went on to win the primary by almost 30 points. Days later, Biden got endorsements from Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, and Harry Reid — endorsements that, in his speech Tuesday night, he credited with helping him notch a shockingly strong Super Tuesday performance.

Sanders’s supporters have reacted to these endorsements with fury. To them, it’s proof the fix is in.

If Biden wins the nomination, it will be a real lesson in how power works. Bernie was on track to win, Biden had no campaign, and they all knew it. So a few phone calls were made behind the scenes to Amy, Pete, Beto. Several million was put into a pro-Warren Super PAC. Voila!

— Nathan J Robinson (@NathanJRobinson) March 4, 2020

If that’s the lesson Sanders’s supporters take about how power works, it’s the wrong lesson. The work of the president requires convincing legislators in your party to support your agenda, sometimes at the cost of your political or policy ambitions. If Sanders and his team don’t figure out how to do it, they could very well lose to Biden, and even if they win, they’ll be unable to govern.

lol tipsy

bernie won the poll.

milo z and tipsy both otm

Lotsa bad faith takes today, presumably in response to posts rendered only semi-readable by an aggrieved Sanka spittake sprayed across one's monitor.

Remember y'all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXGgWf2lacM

fwiw while I voted for Warren I've never considered myself "Warren-core" - I never felt any sense of devotion to any of the candidates tbh - and resent the strawmanning about her "supporters" but hey since we're going there I guess white men gonna white man

bernie won the poll.

You're right. Pretty close, though!

lotta white man tu quoque today

We're All in the Same Gang slaps, possibly my favorite Dre production

xp

i've almost started a warren thread a couple of times but then thought some people would lose their minds. She's been pretty non-existent on ilx in comparison. i really don't understand this reality people are reimagining. outic otm.

nathan j robinson is an enormous idiot and a bad writer

I could go for a Quoque Monsieur

ok lol

Haha "strawmanning" - but those two former ILXor Berniebros you follow on Twitter tell the real story about things.

It is perfectly fine to be weirded out by Warren's many, many years as a Republican

I agree.

In a nation of ~335 million people, it is perfectly fine to hold almost any political opinion for almost any reason (obviously excluding the more fascist/racist end of the spectrum from "fine"), because the system operates on the assumption that every individual opinion will be subsumed into the aggregate porridge of irrationality that drives US politics.

I'd go so far as to say that being "weirded out" by something about a candidate is probably a factor in more than half of the votes cast, but exactly what weirds out any particular voter is completely personal and unpredictable.

I get weirded out every time a candidate mentions their religion or God.

I will pray for you.

gesundheit

endless hair-splitting arguments about where the last scintilla of superior morality lies, and a relentless drive to associate yourself with that most-pure of all positions and the fanatic urge to drive everyone else into that corral.

It’s not about purity, it’s about policies that will benefit people and Warren is not trusted to be that person.

this is a funny sentence insofar as the second half contradicts the first half

If I was a young person in America staring down the barrel of crushing student debt, nonexistent healthcare and a way of life for my parents that just isn’t possible for me...yeah, I think I’d be “fanatic” too.

except the youth turnout yesterday was deplorable

Some are fanatics, some are disaffected. Both are understandable responses to being deprived of agency and neither is a moral failing.

hard to get to the polls with the student debt weighing them down

younger than average, more poor than average, more vulnerable than average)

more trans than average, more indebted than average, more dead friends than average

Harsh as it sounds, electoral politics are dominated by the average. In local politics, that average is local. To win in national politics you need to build an especially broad coalition and that coalition will be dominated by the national average. I want to live in a country where the young, the poor, the vulnerable, the trans, and the indebted are able to live a decent life with dignity, because widespread misery makes for a miserable society. But that position has to fight raging headwinds caused by capitalism, racism, sexism and fascism.

Also, I'd like to point out that Bernie, while weakened, has not lost. Maybe instead of recriminations and gnashing of teeth, it is a good time to enlarge the coalition.

What percentage of voters in the general are independent and how much do they matter?

xpost after we're done identifying and ousting all the Warren sympathizers and PMC moles

xp - no one doesn't know that - but that was in reference to why tombot can 'be a fucking adult' and the 22-year old trans kid on Twitter making $10 an hour might not react so calmly to possible outcomes.

I feel like that line of argument can't explain why black voters went for Biden?

/ If I was a young person in America staring down the barrel of crushing student debt, nonexistent healthcare and a way of life for my parents that just isn’t possible for me...yeah, I think I’d be “fanatic” too. /

except the youth turnout yesterday was deplorable

NBC only counts about a 50-delegate difference between Biden and Sanders + they are done with the region where Biden has the strongest advantage.

Tbf no 22-yo who is politically engaged and attentive has ever had a calm reaction to an election, however it turns out

Xps to milo, thank you, you put it far better

HRC was ahead by over 200 at this point in 2016 iirc?2xp

From what I've seen most Bernie ppl are sad/mad cause they had higher expectations for Super Tuesday, and also that Biden managed to win in states where they'd made real efforts and he never even so much as visited let alone had a ground game. I don't get the sense they've given up, but they're definitely reeling somewhat.

“reeling” is a choice word for it

they need to stop attacking people who aren't against them and keep working.

we gotta reel in those votes!

are you reeling in the votes
stowing away the votes

NBC only counts about a 50-delegate difference between Biden and Sanders + they are done with the region where Biden has the strongest advantage.

― Sund4r, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 11:53 AM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

banter heuristic demands the biden vs trump election

also I finally saw that Symone Sanders tackle and it was worth repeated viewing.

HRC was ahead by over 600 delegates after Super Tues 2016!: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2016/03/02/politics/super-tuesday-results-primary-delegate-race/index.html

It's a gut punch from the quick endorsements and coordinated ad/media strategy from several angles. If it had been a straight Biden/Bernie (or Any Moderate/Bernie) situation from New Hampshire onward, reactions would be less severe.

Bernie isn't out but he probably really really really needs to win in Michigan on tuesday. And the last poll showed Biden overtaking his lead, iirc. But he pulled it off four years ago, so let's keep our fingers crossed!

If it had been a straight Biden/Bernie scenario in New Hampshire Biden would have probably won, btw

I will admit it is a tremendous relief that the Buy The Election Outright approach turned out to be a bust

this is pretty shocking

Joe Biden explains why Bernie Sanders is the best to beat Trump.

(Yes, this is Joe 4 years ago.. I know it's strange watching him talk in full sentences.) pic.twitter.com/5zhs1eYvFu

— Aisha Sharna (@SharnaAisha) March 4, 2020

as I've mentioned before in this thread I've seen Biden make various talk show appearances in '16 and '17 and found myself wishing he'd run

I teach a class and ILX happens.

There's a killer ad just waiting to be cut from that. (Sprinkle in some Obama while yer at it.)

What percentage of voters in the general are independent and how much do they matter?

In Oregon a very large percentage of the voters are registered as unaffiliated, with a few minor parties thrown in for spice, despite the fact of Oregon having closed primaries - something that penalizes them for their lack of major party affiliation, but nevertheless they persist. From that perspective, there are tons of independent voters.

Functionally speaking, almost all those unaffiliated voters tend to vote nearly a straight ticket for one or the other two major parties. From that perspective, the independents are as polarized as the two major parties are.

independent voters are dumbasses