Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

the Harry Potter-based support she got

....................

If we're just talking delegates then Warren taking even a few delegates away from Biden is helping Bernie, not hurting him. Biden is the favorite to get a plurality / majority of delegates.

silby i understand your position but that is absolute twitter brainworms nonsense

I'm just reporting back

... when it's not "winner take all" they don't have to "make up for."

Biden wins 30, Bernie wins 20, Warren wins 7. 5 of her 7 go to Sanders, 2 go to Biden (which would be in line with polling and it's "leftist brainworms" to suggest she wouldn't endorse Bernie when dropping out, per yesterday). Her presence hurt Sanders, however you want to frame it.

In New Hampshire, the only other primary before South Carolina changed the game, Bernie and Warren got 35% of the vote combined. Bernie was never close to getting a majority just from Warren dropping out.

And if you want to frame it as Bloomberg's presence did the same on the other side, cool! Biden supporters on their AOL bulletin board would be right to have the same conversation. Candidates drawing from the same pool of voters hurt each other.

to having been a Republican

oh right, you are too young to remember when Republicans weren't all horrible sociopaths! ... half of the Democratic primary candidates are more conservative than Eisenhower ...

Which states were winner-take-all again? Percentages matter, and given that her voters' second choice option was Bernie twice as often as Biden the delegate hit is against Sanders.

The latest Morning Consult poll (conducted Feb. 23-27) showed Warren supporters' second choices at 40% Sanders, 16% Biden, 16% Buttigieg, 12% Klobuchar. In other words, that's 40% Sanders and 44% Biden or candidates who endorsed Biden.

If Sanders suffered on Super Tuesday from Warren's continued presence in the race, I think it was probably fairly minimal. (I agree with whoever said upthread that her attacks on Bloomberg helped Biden more.)

It definitely hurt Sanders, but not anywhere near hurt him enough to meaningfully impacting his chances of getting a majority.

casino otm

not for nothin also but the strawmanning of berniebros i see on ilx from what i presume are warren supporters strikes me as pretty lazy/opportunistic- like they have a resentful narrative build up and its just churned out at any opportunity.

She voted for Reagan twice and HW Bush, it's not like she cast a ballot for Fightin Bob LaFollette. Republicans were already deeply into their horrible sociopath phase.

yeah, i think people are way overestimating how many Warren voters would currently go to Sanders. I'll take that redaction fit above for myself.

I definitely got annoyed by some Bernie supporters trashing Warren because she had at one point been a member of a different party ... it's this purity politics that also is connected to Cancel / Callout Culture that, ironically, a lot of the same Bernie supporters are against ... again, I'm not talking about Sanders himself, or his official campaign, just some friends of mine who are Sanders supporters and all happen to be Cis White Men who tend to be "the victims" of Cancel / Callout Culture.

She saw the light, great, but there's zero "well, in those days" excuse for being a Republican any time after 1966.

they just don't know when to stop. xpost

that's 40% Sanders and 44% Biden or candidates who endorsed Biden

This is not how it works.

And, as we've seen pointed out in this thread multiple times, endorsements from the first choice matter a great deal (and it's leftist brainworms to suggest that she wouldn't have endorsed Sanders on dropping out).

She voted for Reagan twice and HW Bush, it's not like she cast a ballot for Fightin Bob LaFollette. Republicans were already deeply into their horrible sociopath phase.

That wasn't quite what I was saying but ... yeah, okay, she did. People can change. I would argue that her recent track record is a good example of her change being genuine. Is she as much of a comrade as Bernie? No.

She saw the light, great, but there's zero "well, in those days" excuse for being a Republican any time after 1966.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:42 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

I guess I don't get the point of this, though. She was once a Republican, so therefore...she can't be an effective progressive leader now? She can't be trusted because she secretly still harbors Republican beliefs? It feels more like an excuse to just dismiss her out of hand.

I'm really starting to see the point of the "better things aren't possible" movement

they sure aren't

minor point but fwiw warren has said that while she kept her registration republican into the 90s the last republican candidate she voted for was ford.

enjoying this thread rocketing backward through time argument-wise

She saw the light, great, but there's zero "well, in those days" excuse for being a Republican any time after 1966.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 10:42 AM (four minutes ago)

wait what? ??? if you want to set a cut off date, at least use the implementation of Nixon's Southern strategy ...

I didn't say that - but it's certainly something that can reasonably held against her as a person and as a candidate. This isn't an 18-year old who cast their first vote for Ron Paul because they liked weed and didn't grasp that he's a white supremacist. She was an adult, fully formed, professionally successful and found Reagan's politics perfectly acceptable.

And, as we've seen pointed out in this thread multiple times, endorsements from the first choice matter a great deal (and it's leftist brainworms to suggest that she wouldn't have endorsed Sanders on dropping out).

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:46 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

Okay, I agree that if Warren had dropped out and immediately endorsed Sanders, then it would have helped Sanders. I certainly don't think she would've endorsed Biden, but I suppose I was imagining a scenario where she didn't make an endorsement. Perhaps it's too late for that.

'66 was the hard start of the racist backlash against the events of '64-5 that lead to the Southern Strategy.

Reagan's election, enormous House swing to the Republicans, etc.

yeah lol one of them even lost his fucking mind and left ILX because he was not sufficiently rewarded for his anti-Hillary trolling leading up the to general election.

can't believe you jerks drove Garu G away like that

I didn't say that - but it's certainly something that can reasonably held against her as a person and as a candidate. This isn't an 18-year old who cast their first vote for Ron Paul because they liked weed and didn't grasp that he's a white supremacist. She was an adult, fully formed, professionally successful and found Reagan's politics perfectly acceptable.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:50 PM (thirteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

Held against her to what end? Just so you can say that she sucks?

if you DO want to play the "i'm going back in time to help bernie" game, don't waste your time getting warren to drop out --- force pete and amy to stay in and divide up the centrist competition. just "doing the math" that seems like by far the most important thing. maybe you'd also swing around and find a way to keep bloomberg from making it to that debate he bombed horribly, since that helped out biden tremendously.

compared to those things, warren's vote totals really don't matter much, especially since some of her voters probably would have picked biden. the main way in which she hurt bernie's chances was by her great success body-slamming bloomberg, which let's be clear was awesome and not to be regretted given how much folks here were terrified of a bloomberg presidency (or landslide bloomberg loss to trump) a short time ago. but bernie's best hope was a crowded center-right field and that evaporated in the last week. i'm bummed about it but it's what happened imo.

I didn't say to any end. Silby, IIRC, is the one who specifically said he held it against her. You'd have to ask him.

I'm saying it's an understandable reaction to think less of someone because they were a Republican (and I'll suggest that pretty much everyone here would agree if it was anyone but Warren).

To my end, it's that I respect her less as a person (as I also respect less anyone who's ever cast a vote for a Republican at any level, much less worked with the Federalist Society).

She voted for Reagan twice and HW Bush, it's not like she cast a ballot for Fightin Bob LaFollette. Republicans were already deeply into their horrible sociopath phase.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z)

You keep repeating this, but it isn't true. Warren says that the only GOP presidential candidate she ever voted for was Gerald Ford.

I didn't say I did either! Just summarizing what my friends and informants who are more left-wing than I am think

Ahem. In regard to the 'BernieBro' phenomenon. It's nothing new, has little to do with Bernie, and will be replicated elsewhere long after Bernie fades from the scene.

It's a long-standing and noticeable dynamic within leftist politics that it attempts at all times to find and occupy the moral high ground. That is the great strength of progressive politics, but also leads to two of the less-attractive features that are prominent in leftist politics: endless hair-splitting arguments about where the last scintilla of superior morality lies, and a relentless drive to associate yourself with that most-pure of all positions and the fanatic urge to drive everyone else into that corral.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/189657--liberal-favorite-elizabeth-warren-admits-she-was-a-republican

But she declined to say whether she voted for Ronald Reagan in either his first presidential campaign or his reelection campaign.

Fair enough, I remembered her Come To Jesus story as changing her vote - but I don't know about the Ford bit either. She was invovled with conservative causes into the '90s.

If we're really going back in time, this was probably the wrong strategy to begin with: He’s counting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, where he was already surprisingly strong in 2016, and hoping that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris will split the black electorate in South Carolina and give him a path to slip through there, too. And then, Sanders aides believe, he’ll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention. They say they don’t need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.

From the Atlantic in april 2019: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/04/bernie-sanders-thinking-he-will-win-it-all-2020/587326/

can I just share with everyone that I’m still chuckling to myself about k3vin’s thinking-out-loud revelation upthread that the D electorate doesn’t really want Bernie? WHAT ARE WE TO DO? truly, incrementalism is so abhorrent, better to go full misanthrope and change your handle to “dr norbius” or something.

Honestly the #1 thing I wanted this go-round was for a candidate to step up with policies similar to Bernie, but without the cult of personality nonsense and the inability to grow a base beyond #revolution burnouts. Fool me twice, etc.

I got what I wanted in a candidate, she just turned out to be a distant third to the old white men because this country is misogynist AF. You don’t see me teabagging this thread with the nation’s sourest grapes. I wonder why that is! Possibly because I’m a fucking adult.

Also you have employer-provided healthcare?

Whattay'all make of this whole Gary Hart kerfuffle? Do we have to give this thing to Dukakis now???

Socioeconomics certainly couldn't describe the difference in your outlook and Morbs.

She was invovled with conservative causes into the '90s.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 1:04 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Which ones?

She wrote "Voices That Care"

Dr. Norbitus

You don’t see me teabagging this thread with the nation’s sourest grapes. I wonder why that is! Possibly because I’m a fucking adult.

there DO seem to be a CONSPICUOUS number of aggravated losers in this thread today though so maybe self-assessments of maturity are not the greatest grounds for winning attempts to dominate others online today??!?

She was invovled with conservative causes into the '90s

which, as the numerically sophisticated among know, was more than 20 years ago.

But - Bernie did build a base beyond a cult of personality, that was diverse and broad and stable! Even if it’s not enough to win, it’s an accomplishment. Warren failed to do this! And misogyny played a role, but I don’t think you can blame her failure totally on that.

no the 90s are always 20 years ago that's just the way I feel

i have employer-provided health care and it's a fuckin scam, medicare 4 all