Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

don't like dogs!

these are just bozos jamming half-baked moron thoughts into their phones!

All except Dennis Perrin who is a genius and a prophet and generally too good for this world.

I engage with twitter to the same extent that I engage with tv news, which is to say 'barely if at all'. It's how I manage to keep what little remains of my sanity/hair.

Were all these "twitter Berniebros" you're seeing on the 2016 ILXor thread?

I was trying not to be a dick by outing ppl but yes some were

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 10:23 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah lol one of them even lost his fucking mind and left ILX because he was not sufficiently rewarded for his anti-Hillary trolling leading up the to general election.

don't like dogs!

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 10:25 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

restraining myself from the fp

show me the states in which Warren's votes - had they all gone to Bernie - would have closed the gap and put him ahead of Biden.

Which states were winner-take-all again? Percentages matter, and given that her voters' second choice option was Bernie twice as often as Biden the delegate hit is against Sanders.

This keeps getting framed as absolutes when really, no one is saying that - Warren hurt him, it's playing dumb to pretend otherwise.

dunno why you're bringing up Stein - I don't care about her

It's almost like it's not about... you?

xpost! ha, I almost suggested dog petting *or* I would send reusable shopping bags to morbs.

My guess is that a lot of loyal Dem voters who aren't political junkies were frankly relieved to be able to contract their decision-making out to someone they trust and respect and get on with their lives.

I really think this is a huge part of what's happened in the last few days, not just in South Carolina.

From the AP:

The late deciders helped Biden win Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Texas and Virginia, among several other states. In some states, they made up roughly half of all voters, according to AP VoteCast surveys of voters in eight state primaries. And the surveys show they lined up behind the former vice president. In Virginia, where nearly half of the voters waited to make up their minds, Biden won two-thirds of the late deciders.

Why did so many of these late deciders break toward Biden? Let's ask one of them:

"I saw all these people dropping out and they were all endorsing Biden, and I thought, 'Biden is the one who can be elected,'" said Badon, 57. "So I did not mail in my ballot. I went to vote today, tore up my ballot, and voted for Biden."

Or:

One interpretation of what we're seeing: A supermajority of Democratic voters do not want an intra-party fight right now, and were ready and willing to do whatever party elites told them told would end the primary asap.

— Eric Levitz (@EricLevitz) March 4, 2020

Additionally, Derek Thompson makes the point that most rank-and-file Democratic voters just aren't turned off by the party establishment. He compares Biden to Jeb Bush in 2016: a defender of the old guard, closely tied to the party's last president, who led in early polls but underperformed in debates and in IA/NH. Ultimately, Jeb! couldn't survive his association with the establishment when so many GOP voters wanted to burn it all down, while Biden largely benefits from it among a Democratic base that still reveres Obama.

osita writes for the new yorker

I guess SA is backing Bernie until further notice

I'll figure my shit out in Shithead's second term, when the ACA is repealed and I'm dying rapidly

[redacted], kill yourself.

ooh who could that be

The psychoanalyzing and eye-rolling at those damned Berniebros would probably not go over so well here doing the same about why Warren's base might be more comfortable with any outcome.

i'll be in I Love Baseball

go to hell, rationalizers

osita writes for the new yorker

― global tetrahedron, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:27 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't know what this is in reference to, but Osita Nwanevu is now at the New Republic.

Which states were winner-take-all again? Percentages matter, and given that her voters' second choice option was Bernie twice as often as Biden the delegate hit is against Sanders.

This keeps getting framed as absolutes when really, no one is saying that - Warren hurt him, it's playing dumb to pretend otherwise.

the point is Warren's percentages were generally miserable across the board! Not enough Warren voters to make up for Bernie's deficit or the swing of Klobuchar/Buttigieg/Bloomberg voters

anyway, the "Bernie is the only acceptable candidate" people have plenty of reasonable points. I'd've been fine with Warren but everything from the DNA test to having been a Republican to the squish on Medicare for All to the Harry Potter-based support she got turned lefty-types off of her and I won't hold it against them. Biden is a multi-time loser who is evidently liquefying.

so good luck to the Democrats, whoever they are

I mean just do the math, the delegates Bernie could've conceivably gotten if nobody voted for Warren would not have put him in a different position than the one he's in now

xps

the Harry Potter-based support she got

....................

If we're just talking delegates then Warren taking even a few delegates away from Biden is helping Bernie, not hurting him. Biden is the favorite to get a plurality / majority of delegates.

silby i understand your position but that is absolute twitter brainworms nonsense

I'm just reporting back

... when it's not "winner take all" they don't have to "make up for."

Biden wins 30, Bernie wins 20, Warren wins 7. 5 of her 7 go to Sanders, 2 go to Biden (which would be in line with polling and it's "leftist brainworms" to suggest she wouldn't endorse Bernie when dropping out, per yesterday). Her presence hurt Sanders, however you want to frame it.

In New Hampshire, the only other primary before South Carolina changed the game, Bernie and Warren got 35% of the vote combined. Bernie was never close to getting a majority just from Warren dropping out.

And if you want to frame it as Bloomberg's presence did the same on the other side, cool! Biden supporters on their AOL bulletin board would be right to have the same conversation. Candidates drawing from the same pool of voters hurt each other.

to having been a Republican

oh right, you are too young to remember when Republicans weren't all horrible sociopaths! ... half of the Democratic primary candidates are more conservative than Eisenhower ...

Which states were winner-take-all again? Percentages matter, and given that her voters' second choice option was Bernie twice as often as Biden the delegate hit is against Sanders.

The latest Morning Consult poll (conducted Feb. 23-27) showed Warren supporters' second choices at 40% Sanders, 16% Biden, 16% Buttigieg, 12% Klobuchar. In other words, that's 40% Sanders and 44% Biden or candidates who endorsed Biden.

If Sanders suffered on Super Tuesday from Warren's continued presence in the race, I think it was probably fairly minimal. (I agree with whoever said upthread that her attacks on Bloomberg helped Biden more.)

It definitely hurt Sanders, but not anywhere near hurt him enough to meaningfully impacting his chances of getting a majority.

casino otm

not for nothin also but the strawmanning of berniebros i see on ilx from what i presume are warren supporters strikes me as pretty lazy/opportunistic- like they have a resentful narrative build up and its just churned out at any opportunity.

She voted for Reagan twice and HW Bush, it's not like she cast a ballot for Fightin Bob LaFollette. Republicans were already deeply into their horrible sociopath phase.

yeah, i think people are way overestimating how many Warren voters would currently go to Sanders. I'll take that redaction fit above for myself.

I definitely got annoyed by some Bernie supporters trashing Warren because she had at one point been a member of a different party ... it's this purity politics that also is connected to Cancel / Callout Culture that, ironically, a lot of the same Bernie supporters are against ... again, I'm not talking about Sanders himself, or his official campaign, just some friends of mine who are Sanders supporters and all happen to be Cis White Men who tend to be "the victims" of Cancel / Callout Culture.

She saw the light, great, but there's zero "well, in those days" excuse for being a Republican any time after 1966.

they just don't know when to stop. xpost

that's 40% Sanders and 44% Biden or candidates who endorsed Biden

This is not how it works.

And, as we've seen pointed out in this thread multiple times, endorsements from the first choice matter a great deal (and it's leftist brainworms to suggest that she wouldn't have endorsed Sanders on dropping out).

She voted for Reagan twice and HW Bush, it's not like she cast a ballot for Fightin Bob LaFollette. Republicans were already deeply into their horrible sociopath phase.

That wasn't quite what I was saying but ... yeah, okay, she did. People can change. I would argue that her recent track record is a good example of her change being genuine. Is she as much of a comrade as Bernie? No.

She saw the light, great, but there's zero "well, in those days" excuse for being a Republican any time after 1966.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:42 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

I guess I don't get the point of this, though. She was once a Republican, so therefore...she can't be an effective progressive leader now? She can't be trusted because she secretly still harbors Republican beliefs? It feels more like an excuse to just dismiss her out of hand.

I'm really starting to see the point of the "better things aren't possible" movement

they sure aren't

minor point but fwiw warren has said that while she kept her registration republican into the 90s the last republican candidate she voted for was ford.

enjoying this thread rocketing backward through time argument-wise

She saw the light, great, but there's zero "well, in those days" excuse for being a Republican any time after 1966.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 10:42 AM (four minutes ago)

wait what? ??? if you want to set a cut off date, at least use the implementation of Nixon's Southern strategy ...

I didn't say that - but it's certainly something that can reasonably held against her as a person and as a candidate. This isn't an 18-year old who cast their first vote for Ron Paul because they liked weed and didn't grasp that he's a white supremacist. She was an adult, fully formed, professionally successful and found Reagan's politics perfectly acceptable.

And, as we've seen pointed out in this thread multiple times, endorsements from the first choice matter a great deal (and it's leftist brainworms to suggest that she wouldn't have endorsed Sanders on dropping out).

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:46 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

Okay, I agree that if Warren had dropped out and immediately endorsed Sanders, then it would have helped Sanders. I certainly don't think she would've endorsed Biden, but I suppose I was imagining a scenario where she didn't make an endorsement. Perhaps it's too late for that.

'66 was the hard start of the racist backlash against the events of '64-5 that lead to the Southern Strategy.

Reagan's election, enormous House swing to the Republicans, etc.

yeah lol one of them even lost his fucking mind and left ILX because he was not sufficiently rewarded for his anti-Hillary trolling leading up the to general election.

can't believe you jerks drove Garu G away like that

I didn't say that - but it's certainly something that can reasonably held against her as a person and as a candidate. This isn't an 18-year old who cast their first vote for Ron Paul because they liked weed and didn't grasp that he's a white supremacist. She was an adult, fully formed, professionally successful and found Reagan's politics perfectly acceptable.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:50 PM (thirteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

Held against her to what end? Just so you can say that she sucks?