Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

the idea that sanders had not done enough outreach to these voters, given his truly heroic ground game and the complete dearth of any actual campaigning from biden, is laughable and everyone knows it

where is the evidence of a heroic ground game other than South Carolina and Nevada? If voters have changed their minds in the last few days, then he failed as a candidate to persuade them. Warren had the same problem.

and, yes, of course I worry about a Biden nomination. I worried about a Warren and Sanders nomination too!

the vast ignorance and disinterest of huge swathes of the voting populace continues to be difficult to overestimate.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 11:37 AM (fifty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i just dropped my kid off at daycare. everyone working there was excited that i saw biden last night, and *very* excited to vote for him, but no one could really say why. they also asked me if britain was a democracy or the queen was in charge.

ppl changed their minds over the last couple days because the other centrist candidates dropped out - they were not winning enough delegates, polling well enough, or pulling in enough money, and they were never going to endorse Bernie so they threw their lot (and the weight of their voters) behind Biden. It's not a mystery, and it's not a conspiracy.

xp

there was media saturation of BIDEN HAS THE MOMENTUM

if you think this meant NOTHING, may i recommend Marshall fucking McLuhan

ah yes, the media

they also asked me if britain was a democracy or the queen was in charge.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:31 AM (forty-two seconds ago)

so, which is it

reflected beautifully in ILX being gen convinced Bloomie was the nominee 3 weeks ago xxp

I refer you to my posts about Bloomie 3 weeks ago

Biden's win in South Carolina did legitimately change the narrative because a) his margin was huge and b) it showed Bernie wasn't going to pull the African American vote or turnout young voters, which he's been banking on.

this is not a media conspiracy, these are facts on the ground.

ah, the media yeah

80% of the population are phone zombies, it's their heartbeat

lol the DNC is not a mind-control operation, there was no voting manipulation or suppression going on - this was the will of the voters. The Sanders wing is not the majority of the party.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:30 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

just a big coincidence that the polling changed so drastically over the past week! ok then!

it’s hard to have a reasonable discussion when one side denies basic facts

and large majorities of those other voters who were waffling about Mayor Pete, Klobuchar or Bloomberg broke for Biden accordingly, because Biden looked to them like could win and they were comfortable with him as the nominee

it’s hard to have a reasonable discussion when one side denies basic facts

lol ok

lol youre still a massive dick

Yes. I mean, most posters would know, including Simon, if you ever talked to an African American over 35.

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:26 AM (six minutes ago)

because all African Americans over 35 have similar politics? wait ... what? The main difference I see is that African-American men were more likely to be pro-Bernie than women, some of whom were Warren supporters.

2016: "Nobody is owed your vote, they have to earn it."

2020:

Elizabeth warren took away 100’000’s of progressive votes from Bernie for just staying in with no chance what so ever .. resulting in a big wins for Biden .. don’t tell me the system is not against Bernie #RiggedPrimary #SuperTuesdayResults

— Michael Nazli (@iThinkBuzz) March 4, 2020

I think most of us underestimated Jim Clyburn's effect: as scion, as voice on the radio, as authority.

in my own state at least it does seem like the two biggest factors were Pete/Amy dropping out and Bloomberg utterly cratering. I don't think Sanders' slice of the pie was significantly less than polls suggested it would be, but roughly 10-15% that would have been split between Booty and Klobuchar seem to have all gone to Biden plus about 5-10% who ditched Mini Mike.

k3vin what are you talking about exactly

because all African Americans over 35 have similar politics? wait ... what? The main difference I see is that African-American men were more likely to be pro-Bernie than women, some of whom were Warren supporters.

― sarahell, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12

Never said that, and I know quite a few POC who're Sanders or Warren voters

I was very excited that Kiese Laymon and Janelle Monae were for Warren.

I don’t think it’s a “conspiracy”, it’s basic politics. biden was polling horribly (relatively) in SC and most of the super tuesday states, clyburn made his endorsement, he won SC in a rout, and then butti/klob made very well-timed exits and endorsements. it worked exactly how it was supposed to work

how did the treacherous DNC and Warren make the youth vote stay home compared to 2016?

is it seriously your belief that if the primaries were held 2 weeks ago the “will of the voters” would have been the same?

all of this conspiracy business, wtf nobody thinks there's some secret cabal, but there is very obviously been a concerted effort on the part of moneyed interests and careerist pols to "manipulate" and "suppress"

ffs they've been nonstop disingenuously hammering away on this "socialism" nonsense, not to mention "electability" horseshit despite his consistintently outpolling everybody else head-to-head v TRump

The Sanders wing is not the majority of the party.

unless of course you blind-test his policies, in which case he's very clearly represents the majority

what a snow job

hasty indignation typos^

biden was polling horribly (relatively) in SC

this is not a fact, Biden was always ahead: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html#!

(relatively)

Never said that, and I know quite a few POC who're Sanders or Warren voters

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:38 AM (one minute ago)

sorry. I definitely get the sense that some of these issues re risk are different for POC in more conservative states than in say, the San Francisco Bay Area.

unless of course you blind-test his policie

people don't vote based on policies, they never have, and they likely never will

It's true, though: two weeks made the difference.

Seems more like overall turnout increased and the youth vote stayed about the same?

generally speaking, yeah

xxp especially not when every major media outlet refuses to discuss them in any depth and instead subs in a caricature of the guy

I mean I know most ilxors don't watch cable news but the voting public does, and shit have you even seen the coverage? It's comical.

is it seriously your belief that if the primaries were held 2 weeks ago the “will of the voters” would have been the same?

of course not, because the circumstances were different! How is this relevant? Timing is everything in politics, and Biden capitalized on Klobuchar and Mayor Pete giving up (this is the only point on which a conceivable "conspiracy" could be hung, but even there I think it's a misnomer/mischaracterization - nothing underhanded happened. No doubt both candidates, as diligent party hacks, were sensitive to calls to drop out from party apparatchiks/leaders, in addition to all the other stuff stacked against them. They wanted Biden instead of Bernie, and they cashed their chips in. That's party politics for ya).

anyway I am not crying foul, powerful politicians did what powerful politicians are supposed to do and it clearly had an impact on the elections over the last two weeks. take a look at the exit polling data and tell me your interpretation. that’s life though and maybe this was inevitable in some shape or form

there was media saturation of BIDEN HAS THE MOMENTUM

if you think this meant NOTHING, may i recommend Marshall fucking McLuhan

Yes, the same way endless media coverage of Biden's failures as a campaigner and pathetic showing in Iowa/NH and Sanders establishing himself as the clear front-runner led Sanders to an upset victory in South Carolina

wtf nobody thinks there's some secret cabal

there are plenty of Berniebros who think there's a secret cabal gimme a break, they tweet/post about the nefarious machinations of the DNC all the time

that's not a secret cabal

why was Sanders youth vote down?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/04/super-tuesday-bernie-sanders-youth-votes-fell-short-compared-2016/4947795002/

don't tell me cable news

there are plenty of Berniebros who think there's a secret cabal gimme a break, they tweet/post about the nefarious machinations of the DNC all the time

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:46 AM (six seconds ago)

ah our mutual friends ... how is B3n T1nker doing? Haven't seen him in a while.

unless of course you blind-test his policies, in which case he's very clearly represents the majority

If that's how elections were won, the Democrat would get 65% of the vote every time.

An acquaintance in SC wrote the following when I remarked on how 27% of South Carolina voters polled said that James Clyburn’s endorsement “strongly” motivated them to vote for Biden:

I'm an SC resident and am honestly surprised the number isn't higher. He's beloved by an awful lot of Dems here across the spectrum, both inside and outside his district. I talked to a formerly Sanders-curious coworker this morning who said Clyburn's endorsement was the deciding factor in her vote, and she's a kinda leftie who's only lived in the state for a couple years. My guess is that a lot of loyal Dem voters who aren't political junkies were frankly relieved to be able to contract their decision-making out to someone they trust and respect and get on with their lives.

ha I don't talk politics w T1nker really. Saw him a couple weeks ago at a friends' 50th bday party, all music chatter

xps

how did the treacherous DNC and Warren make the youth vote stay home compared to 2016?

Running with this line is questionable - the states where it was supposedly down were primarily red states and exit polls showing a difference of 2-3% aren't exactly an absolute fact.

I guess in the end it's sort of a relief to know the concerted, over-the-top redbaiting effort of three 24-hour cable new channels + local network affiliates + two remaining newpapers had no deleterious effect on the Sanders campaign

power to the ever-wise people

of course it had an effect

I think I would take up the middle ground somewhere between tin hattin' it re: Big Media's coordinated war on Bernie and the notion that there was no concerted effort on their part to turn the narrative against him.