Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

the vast ignorance and disinterest of huge swathes of the voting populace continues to be difficult to overestimate.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, March 4, 2020

you're implicitly giving side eye to the minorities who felt safer with Biden

there hasn't been evidence that bernie is turning out new voters (granted this is compared to 2016, when he might've turned out some voters who would've been on the sidelines). biden voters would've picked a different candidate--many biden voters supported a different candidate last week.

is it? i thought turn out was down.

― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:11 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

not sure about most states, but turnout in virginia nearly doubled

"felt safer" vs "dumbass whites will vote for the safe guy in the fall"

Anyone who voted biden has earned a little side eye. He fuckin sucks.

ok i was mistaken

In most states, voter turnout was significantly higher this year than it was in 2016:

In Alabama, turnout increased from more than 398,000 in 2016 to more than 451,000 in 2020.
In Arkansas, turnout increased from more than 218,000 with all votes counted to over 228,000 with more than 99 percent of precincts reporting.
In North Carolina, turnout increased from more than 1.1 million with all votes counted to more than 1.3 million with 99 percent of precincts reporting.
In Tennessee, turnout went from more than 371,000 to more than 513,000.
In Texas, turnout rose from more than 1.4 million with all votes counted to more than 2.1 million with more than 99 percent of precincts reporting.
In Vermont, turnout increased from nearly 135,000 with all votes counted to more than 157,000 with roughly 89 percent of precincts reporting.
In Virginia, turnout grew from nearly 783,000 to more than 1.3 million.
There was, however, one exception: Democratic voter turnout actually decreased in Oklahoma, going from nearly 336,000 in 2016 to nearly 304,000 in 2020.

you're implicitly giving side eye to the minorities who felt safer with Biden

yeah this interpretation occurred to me and I do have some caveats: as discussed here a million times the African American vote for ex. is pretty nuanced/strategic (sees Sanders as riskier/less of a sure thing, a lot of goodwill leftover from Biden subordinating himself to Obama etc). Latino vote seems to be heavily tilting towards Sanders, from what I've read his promise to abolish ICE is a big part of that.

*a little side eye*, as opposed to getting written off forever or whatever. xps

"felt safer" vs "dumbass whites will vote for the safe guy in the fall"

iow Morbz... otm?

alfred consistently is making a good point -- agree or disagree there are a lot of ppl who are more vulnerable to Trump's policies who are less inclined to take their shot with a guy who many feel would be less likely to win in a general election, and who some of them feel has been less sympathetic to their concerns than he could have been.

sorry if i'm misreading you alfred.

The Michael Harriott thread that leads up to this tweet is a good one and some people are really, really showing their asses today.

Here’s the point.

I know those “old black voters” in SC.

They’re smarter, more informed and more progressive than any of these motherfuckers denigrating black southern voters talking about “revolution”

None of them are on Twitter.

— michaelharriot (@michaelharriot) March 4, 2020

Biden should just make his own blue MAGA hats, isn't his message essentially the same (let's go back to how things were 4 years ago!)

the Parnas tape? that was re: Hillary picking Bernie as her running mate, not Biden.

― by the light of the burning Citroën, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 10:53 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

you need to listen further, biden specifically comes up re: 2020, followed by laughter and rounds of "yes, please!"

alfred consistently is making a good point -- agree or disagree there are a lot of ppl who are more vulnerable to Trump's policies who are less inclined to take their shot with a guy who many feel would be less likely to win in a general election, and who some of them feel has been less sympathetic to their concerns than he could have been.

sorry if i'm misreading you alfred.

― omar little, Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Yes. I mean, most posters would know, including Simon, if you ever talked to an African American over 35.

i feel in my bones something innnteresting is going to happen on the way to Record Player's coronation

harriot is one of the worst writers I’ve ever read, and I read this thread every damn day!

I am not sure what I am supposed to do with the insight, which I have no reason to doubt, that old black voters feel biden is a safer choice. I understand and respect the choice, but he still sucks! so where does that leave us?

the idea that sanders had not done enough outreach to these voters, given his truly heroic ground game and the complete dearth of any actual campaigning from biden, is laughable and everyone knows it

by the way, things are different today if the establishment hadn’t put its thumb on the scales over the past week (which is their right of course, sucks but what can you do really). you only need to look at the exit polls to see the huge proportion of voters who changed their minds over few days leading up to tuesday, and the large share of those voters who went for biden, to understand this. their choice should be respected regardless but let’s not pretend this was an organic happening or that there is anything special about biden that caused this to occur

I do worry about how much a Biden nomination could suppress Dem turnout - some portion of Bernie's supporters won't swallow the bitter pill and pull the lever, nor will his army of trolls be willing to duke it out with Trump's army of trolls. Is general anti-Trump animus among the rest of the party enough to overcome that? I dunno, guess we're gonna find out.

Biden should just make his own blue MAGA hats, isn't his message essentially the same (let's go back to how things were 4 years ago!)

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:22 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/A1RBlkE-6OL._SS500_PIPJStripe-Robin-Large-V2,TopLeft,0,0_.jpg

sorry for amazon lol

the idea that sanders had not done enough outreach to these voters is laughable and everyone knows it

well his outreach obviously didn't work, so what's your explanation? that he shouldn't have bothered/nothing he could say could sway them?

an organic happening or that there is anything special about biden that caused this to occur

lol the DNC is not a mind-control operation, there was no voting manipulation or suppression going on - this was the will of the voters. The Sanders wing is not the majority of the party.

the idea that sanders had not done enough outreach to these voters, given his truly heroic ground game and the complete dearth of any actual campaigning from biden, is laughable and everyone knows it

where is the evidence of a heroic ground game other than South Carolina and Nevada? If voters have changed their minds in the last few days, then he failed as a candidate to persuade them. Warren had the same problem.

and, yes, of course I worry about a Biden nomination. I worried about a Warren and Sanders nomination too!

the vast ignorance and disinterest of huge swathes of the voting populace continues to be difficult to overestimate.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 11:37 AM (fifty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i just dropped my kid off at daycare. everyone working there was excited that i saw biden last night, and *very* excited to vote for him, but no one could really say why. they also asked me if britain was a democracy or the queen was in charge.

ppl changed their minds over the last couple days because the other centrist candidates dropped out - they were not winning enough delegates, polling well enough, or pulling in enough money, and they were never going to endorse Bernie so they threw their lot (and the weight of their voters) behind Biden. It's not a mystery, and it's not a conspiracy.

xp

there was media saturation of BIDEN HAS THE MOMENTUM

if you think this meant NOTHING, may i recommend Marshall fucking McLuhan

ah yes, the media

they also asked me if britain was a democracy or the queen was in charge.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:31 AM (forty-two seconds ago)

so, which is it

reflected beautifully in ILX being gen convinced Bloomie was the nominee 3 weeks ago xxp

I refer you to my posts about Bloomie 3 weeks ago

Biden's win in South Carolina did legitimately change the narrative because a) his margin was huge and b) it showed Bernie wasn't going to pull the African American vote or turnout young voters, which he's been banking on.

this is not a media conspiracy, these are facts on the ground.

ah, the media yeah

80% of the population are phone zombies, it's their heartbeat

lol the DNC is not a mind-control operation, there was no voting manipulation or suppression going on - this was the will of the voters. The Sanders wing is not the majority of the party.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12:30 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

just a big coincidence that the polling changed so drastically over the past week! ok then!

it’s hard to have a reasonable discussion when one side denies basic facts

and large majorities of those other voters who were waffling about Mayor Pete, Klobuchar or Bloomberg broke for Biden accordingly, because Biden looked to them like could win and they were comfortable with him as the nominee

it’s hard to have a reasonable discussion when one side denies basic facts

lol ok

lol youre still a massive dick

Yes. I mean, most posters would know, including Simon, if you ever talked to an African American over 35.

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:26 AM (six minutes ago)

because all African Americans over 35 have similar politics? wait ... what? The main difference I see is that African-American men were more likely to be pro-Bernie than women, some of whom were Warren supporters.

2016: "Nobody is owed your vote, they have to earn it."

2020:

Elizabeth warren took away 100’000’s of progressive votes from Bernie for just staying in with no chance what so ever .. resulting in a big wins for Biden .. don’t tell me the system is not against Bernie #RiggedPrimary #SuperTuesdayResults

— Michael Nazli (@iThinkBuzz) March 4, 2020

I think most of us underestimated Jim Clyburn's effect: as scion, as voice on the radio, as authority.

in my own state at least it does seem like the two biggest factors were Pete/Amy dropping out and Bloomberg utterly cratering. I don't think Sanders' slice of the pie was significantly less than polls suggested it would be, but roughly 10-15% that would have been split between Booty and Klobuchar seem to have all gone to Biden plus about 5-10% who ditched Mini Mike.

k3vin what are you talking about exactly

because all African Americans over 35 have similar politics? wait ... what? The main difference I see is that African-American men were more likely to be pro-Bernie than women, some of whom were Warren supporters.

― sarahell, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 12

Never said that, and I know quite a few POC who're Sanders or Warren voters

I was very excited that Kiese Laymon and Janelle Monae were for Warren.

I don’t think it’s a “conspiracy”, it’s basic politics. biden was polling horribly (relatively) in SC and most of the super tuesday states, clyburn made his endorsement, he won SC in a rout, and then butti/klob made very well-timed exits and endorsements. it worked exactly how it was supposed to work

how did the treacherous DNC and Warren make the youth vote stay home compared to 2016?

is it seriously your belief that if the primaries were held 2 weeks ago the “will of the voters” would have been the same?

all of this conspiracy business, wtf nobody thinks there's some secret cabal, but there is very obviously been a concerted effort on the part of moneyed interests and careerist pols to "manipulate" and "suppress"

ffs they've been nonstop disingenuously hammering away on this "socialism" nonsense, not to mention "electability" horseshit despite his consistintently outpolling everybody else head-to-head v TRump

The Sanders wing is not the majority of the party.

unless of course you blind-test his policies, in which case he's very clearly represents the majority

what a snow job

hasty indignation typos^

biden was polling horribly (relatively) in SC

this is not a fact, Biden was always ahead: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html#!

(relatively)

Never said that, and I know quite a few POC who're Sanders or Warren voters

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:38 AM (one minute ago)

sorry. I definitely get the sense that some of these issues re risk are different for POC in more conservative states than in say, the San Francisco Bay Area.