Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

And now for a seven month engagement of Weekend at Bidens.

Fivethirtyeight haven't unfrozen their forecast yet, but this writeup is not comforting: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-biden-beat-expectations-on-super-tuesday/ They point out that the three states Bernie won outside of Vermont, California, Colorado and Utah, all vote by mail, so they might not have been as impacted by the shift towards Biden late in the race. That's bad news for next week.

Confusing use of commas there, sorry

It's worth noting that there was a double digit increase in turnout over 2016. More voters were showing up, just not Warren/Sanders voters.

xp -- the second post got eaten but it was along the lines of "black voters aren't a monolith, as far as I can tell younger black voters, like younger voters in general, were more likely to prefer sanders"

christ, Biden won North Carolina by 19 fucking points. I saw seemingly reputable polls a week ago that had Sanders slightly ahead.

Those particular polls did have two other candidates in them tbf!

black voters aren't a monolith but old voters are pretty fuckin close

well, also, no, given that "old voters" also includes many, many trump voters

And now for a seven month engagement of Weekend at Bidens.

Eh, he and Sanders are almost the same age, and only one of them had a recent heart attack (that we know of). Regardless, if either of them was in the WH I can think of so much bad shit that would immediately stop or be reversed (again), and I would breathe a (slight) sigh of relief that the composition of the SC won't get even worse. So I don't see why I should be pooping on Biden when his potential election gets me much of what I'd want from a president for the next four years. Which is to say, what someone here or somewhere else said, a president you can ignore. That's the upside of boring.

(weirdly, I've primarily heard the "they're all so old, why are we electing people who are so old" argument from boomers)

are there any good articles about people who feel “democrat” and “republican” are identities in an id politics way, because

I was just talking Dem voters tbc

I’m not responding to anything in particular, just floating some ideas

I hope all these Biden voters turn out in the general election after the months and months of Biden #metoo, dementia, and Burisma corruption stories we have to look forward to. It's on them now.

Keep at it, man.

Ezra Klein has written about "stacked identities," explaining partisan polarization as a consequence of long-term sorting into parties along demographic lines (rural/urban, white/nonwhite, Christian/other). The idea being that the more demographic identities you have that correspond with one party, the more likely you are to not just support but identify with that party. I think some of this research may be based on the work of Lilliana Mason.

my new take is that neither bernie nor biden should’ve run at all.

raise your hand if you want another fun primary in 2024

that is my old take ^^^.

Frankly the best case is now is that Biden chooses Harris as his VP, somehow wins, then dies approximately one hour after taking the oath of office.

(joking)

man, he might not make it to November

(man used in the colloquial non-gendered sense)

many xxps those Trump tweets aren't angling for Bernie voters, nor does he actually want to face Bernie. I don't get why people are still buying this.

I have no opinion about who Trump wants to face -- I think he is surrounded by bootlickers who are telling him he'll crush any opponent and he probably believes it.

But those tweets are 100% angling at Bernie voters. He's not trying to get their votes, he's trying to bolster their general sense that the system is rigged and there's no point in participating, so they might as well stay home. That's the play and always has been the play. Trump doesn't win by getting people to vote for him, he wins by getting people to feel like it's not worth it to vote against him.

xp:

There's still hope, then.

my new take is that neither bernie nor biden should’ve run at all.

Cosign. I feel like we could be having a lot of the same policy conversations right now if e.g. Warren and Harris were the frontrunners, but it wouldn't be as soiled by people's locked-in issues re Obama and H Clinton, and we'd be talking about two people we were absolutely sure were capable of serving two terms as President.

just looking at these numbers it's not hard to think that if you removed warren and bloomberg biden would've won even more states.

i am cynical about any dem nominee beating incumbent trump in a good economy (obv a recession and/or corona crisis could change that) but there are reasons to think biden could win. he doesn't scan as an elitist at all like gore or kerry and he isn't hated like hillary. maybe he really is the generic democrat who wins against trump in polling. maybe they can just hide him until the election and he can pick a young exciting VP to do most of the campaigning for him?

Hey everybody cheer up United Healthcare stock up 12%

Trump knows Joe Biden has nothing more to offer a critical block of WI-MI-PA etc voters that Hillary didn't. They'll clobber him on trade and jobs.

Hell he's said as much in private—what's he's afraid of is a populist immune to that line of attack.

Hell he's said as much in private

remarks leaked to the press.

I hope all these Biden voters turn out in the general election after the months and months of Biden #metoo, dementia, and Burisma corruption stories we have to look forward to. It's on them now.

― Har Mar Klobuchar (PBKR), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:39 AM (twenty-two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

if only there was any indication of this for the last year

For fuck's sake stop saying "a good economy" like a goddamn CNBC talking head. This economy is a flaming shit mountain. 90% of the American population is terminally financially fucked and has been for well over a decade.

people look at the stock market performing well and think 'the economy is good, maybe i'm the problem'

extremely low unemployment and wages are rising. it's not just the stock market.

"So I don't see why I should be pooping on Biden when his potential election gets me much of what I'd want from a president for the next four years. Which is to say, what someone here or somewhere else said, a president you can ignore. That's the upside of boring."

trying to be ok with this, which is also what I kind of assumed would always happen, and remembering that politics is really about mitigating your disappointments rather than hope. having said that I do hope he picks a VP that's inspiring and that can maybe stand as an inveitable successor in 4 years. I don't know who that is; maybe it's Duckworth, maybe it's Abrahms..it completely depends on how much power he gives to that role.

Trump knows Joe Biden has nothing more to offer a critical block of WI-MI-PA etc voters that Hillary didn't.

You are talking about the candidate instead of the campaign.

The people around Biden (presuming the Dem machine coalesces to help prop him up and drag him across the finish line) may not make the same mistakes as Hillary's campaign, like not seriously campaigning in upper-Midwest states.

I don't hold much faith in the candidate himself, but I do hope that he'll have the muscle of the party behind him and that they will have learned from history and not make the same mistakes.

(wait for laughter)

They'll make totally new, different mistakes! Haha lol we r fucked

Abrams would be incredible, but she would outclass him on the campaign. Harris is probably out of the picture, isn't she? I wouldn't be shocked if he picked Klobuchar, who gets him a foothold in the fabled midwest.

The Economy is strong. Doesn't mean The Economy is benefitting everyone. They are different things.

PA is a sorta home state for Biden. Maybe he picks Baldwin and she helps in WI too. he has the persona that could play in these sorts of states and do we really believe PA went to Trump because they liked his policies better or bc they hated hillary and elite liberals?

Bye bye, Bloomberg

yeah all those things would've made biden the ideal candidate for 2016.

xp

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/politics/bloomberg-campaign-super-tuesday/index.html

"this isn't going as planned"

I hope all these Biden voters turn out in the general election after the months and months of Biden #metoo, dementia, and Burisma corruption stories we have to look forward to. It's on them now.

― Har Mar Klobuchar (PBKR), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 9:39 AM (twenty-two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

if only there was any indication of this for the last year

― like, I’m eating an elephant head (katherine), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 10:02 AM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

The foreseeasbility of it makes the Biden votes more puzzling,

Bloomberg at least has been consistent about pledging money and support to whomever the nominee turns out to be.

My mom's in southeast PA, and where she is has seen steady shifts blue post-asshole, so fingers crossed.

Bloomberg at least has been consistent about pledging money and support to whomever the nominee turns out to be.

Yeah, I'm waiting to see if this turns out to be true.

The foreseeability of Trump attacking Fidel Sanders too.

I’d say go neg on health prospects for biden but there’s a catch.

Bloomberg at least has been consistent about pledging money and support to whomever the nominee turns out to be.

Yeah, I'm waiting to see if this turns out to be true.

Bloomberg now has his candidates who will ensure he doesn't pay anymore in taxes. He's good.

I don't hold much faith in the candidate himself, but I do hope that he'll have the muscle of the party behind him and that they will have learned from history and not make the same mistakes.

Yeah, this is where I'm finding optimism. Surrogates who can make the case for turning out to defeat Trump will help.

my new take is that neither bernie nor biden should’ve run at all.

raise your hand if you want another fun primary in 2024

― ooga booga-ing for the bourgeoisie (voodoo chili), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 2:47 PM (thirty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

that is my old take ^^^.

― Yerac, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 2:48 PM (thirty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yep yep yep. I got actually angry at both of their announcements that they were going to run. For a whole bunch of reasons, I don't think either has any business being in the race. Either/both of them could have had a big influence on it from the outside, if they'd wanted.

But here we are.

Dems take Senate, Biden is President: rich people pay more taxes
Dems take Senate, Sanders is President: rich people pay more taxes
Dems don't take Senate, Biden is President: rich people don't pay more taxes
Dem's don't take Senate, Sanders is President: rich people don't pay more taxes