Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

morning, guys. last night sucked

save the race card for November, Merlin

who comprised

alfred!

is it true that warren staying in the race was devastating to bernie

here’s a list of ppl i don’t want to hear talk about this:
1. trump
2. xyz
3. fred b

― mellon collie and the infinite bradness (BradNelson), 4. marts 2020 14:18 (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Feeling better than I probably should about this ranking :)

the really dangerous scenario for alienating people is bernie having a delegate lead but being just short of a majority with biden getting the nomination via superdelegates. if biden is ahead anyway or wins outright i think you only lose the same small amount of people who wouldn't have voted for any other dem as last time instead of the more widespread feeling of betrayal and disillusionment you could get with a "superdelegates steal the nomination for biden" narrative.

― ufo, Wednesday, March 4, 2020 5:57 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

otm

you recently said it wasn’t over for bernie. everyone who says this gets a single point (1) from me

xp

warren staying in was a little bad for bernie but not devastating. if she doesn't drop out now though then she truly is just in it to wreck though

as long as he runs an OK campaign I imagine he'll do well enough

lol

honestly if biden wins the nom my initial concern is going to be for the health and well-being of hunter biden

who comprised
alfred!

― k3vin k., Wednesday, March 4, 2020

I had a full night's rest, shouldn't have happened.

warren staying in was a little bad for bernie but not devastating

my understanding is, had she dropped out, biden would’ve still come in ahead

she will prob drop out, imo

many xxps those Trump tweets aren't angling for Bernie voters, nor does he actually want to face Bernie. I don't get why people are still buying this.

The Lev Parnas tapes belied the latter when he confessed to Bernie being the candidate he most feared in 2016 and then people literally bursting into laughter at the prospect of a Biden nomination—they're crossing their fingers for it.

He's just doing it to sow division, it's what he does best

here’s a list of ppl i don’t want to hear talk about this:
1. trump
2. xyz
3. fred b

― mellon collie and the infinite bradness (BradNelson), 4. marts 2020 14:18 (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Feeling better than I probably should about this ranking :)

― Frederik B, Wednesday, 4 March 2020 bookmarkflaglink

They are just more used to you 🐍

xps yeah if warren had dropped out it seems like bernie might have just slightly won maine, texas, and massachusetts, narrowing biden's lead and improving the narrative for sanders a bit but that wouldn't change that things too much.

I kind of feel like it doesn't matter if/when Warren drops out at this point. Polls have shown that her supporters' second choice is split pretty evenly between Bernie and non-Bernie candidates (although I haven't seen one since Buttigieg and Klobuchar left the race). So I truly don't know who benefits from her leaving. Arguably if she stays in the race she can attack Biden at the next debate?

Those 2nd choice polls are sort of worthless, failing as they do to weigh endorsement

I am feeling bummed this morning but people gotta take a couple of things into consideration

1 Biden still has to *campaign* which is a total shit-show, most people haven't seen this bumbling 2020 version and now they're gonna

2 Biden as frontrunner will have a concentrating/clarifying effect on Bernie messaging. The two share a baseline in congress, with votes to explain, and w/r/t dark money he most embodies the Bernie antithesis

anyway this week is gonna blow, really hope Liz gets behind the cause in Michigan

You’re going to be dissapoy

Pointed

I'm expecting Warren not to endorse anyone tbh

I plan on being disappointed, yeah, I'm not throwing in the towel though. It's fucking Joe Biden.

For the primary math, its key that Warren attracted people with progressive values that wouldn't otherwise vote for Sanders (around half her support). Drop her out of the equation, and Biden would benefit everywhere as much or more than Sanders.

Only two arguments for keeping her around. She's the attack dog that may have saved us from Bloomberg, and these fuckers are 77+ years old in the midst of an epidemic that targets old people.

Also, when is it okay to kvetch about African American primary voters? Never? Fine. But hang around long enough and you'll have some resentments.

They sure do.

easy to forget but Warren is 70

thread keeps discovering new depths congrats all

neither here nor there, but when I voted I saw Castro on the ballot, really like that guy wish he would have stayed in longer

Also, when is it okay to kvetch about African American primary voters? Never? Fine. But hang around long enough and you'll have some resentments.

― Save us, Covid19 (Sanpaku), Wednesday, March 4, 2020 8:57 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

flagged, come the fuck on man.

wasn't just african-american voters springing for biden. they certainly didn't win him massachusetts or maine.

the electability concerns of the older and blacker states are real and fair, but watching my performatively woke friends on social media breathe a sigh of relief today really lays bare that the problems they had with Bernie really were about the fact they might have to pay higher taxes

Biden has barely run a campaign so far. Limited funding, few events, in some states no visits. He had little grass roots financial support, and made few special efforts to court minorities. So what did the Senator from Citibank do to earn such loyalty?

sustained O proximity

afaict at least some part of it (originally said "a lot of it" but I couldn't find actual statistics this granular) is just the same older voter/younger voter split in a different demographic

malarkey levels at an all time low

older voter/younger voter split

this is the shit getting us killed fuckin everywhere

christ, Biden won North Carolina by 19 fucking points. I saw seemingly reputable polls a week ago that had Sanders slightly ahead.

this has probably already been litigated upthread but I think these results show the limits of Bernie's magical thinking wrt enacting change through grassroots revolution. I still think he's an infinitely superior candidate to Biden which is why I voted for him, but I think whether it's black voters or white suburbanites or whomever delivered for Biden, it's clear they're not buying what Bernie's selling and part of that is on him for not being more pragmatic in how he frames things. like, I don't think saying he'd get rid of the fillibuster would have automatically changed his fortunes in any state but that kind of unwillingness to be concrete in explaining HOW he's going to achieve the shit he wants to achieve is symptomatic of his campaign.

“i’m older than dirt but i vote” bumperstickers, they flyin out

after gorging themselves at the all-u-can eat buffet, boomers are not only content to walk out on the check, they’re going to burn the whole restaurant down

Fuck it; raise the voting age to 50. Use it or lose it. (Note: I am 48.)

The entire impeachment hullabaloo was free Biden publicity afaict. Hey, I remember that name!

on one hand I know intellectually generations are fake and generational divisions are unhelpful and too sweeping

but otoh fuck boomers. die faster

And now for a seven month engagement of Weekend at Bidens.

Fivethirtyeight haven't unfrozen their forecast yet, but this writeup is not comforting: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-biden-beat-expectations-on-super-tuesday/ They point out that the three states Bernie won outside of Vermont, California, Colorado and Utah, all vote by mail, so they might not have been as impacted by the shift towards Biden late in the race. That's bad news for next week.

Confusing use of commas there, sorry

It's worth noting that there was a double digit increase in turnout over 2016. More voters were showing up, just not Warren/Sanders voters.

xp -- the second post got eaten but it was along the lines of "black voters aren't a monolith, as far as I can tell younger black voters, like younger voters in general, were more likely to prefer sanders"

christ, Biden won North Carolina by 19 fucking points. I saw seemingly reputable polls a week ago that had Sanders slightly ahead.

Those particular polls did have two other candidates in them tbf!

black voters aren't a monolith but old voters are pretty fuckin close

well, also, no, given that "old voters" also includes many, many trump voters

And now for a seven month engagement of Weekend at Bidens.

Eh, he and Sanders are almost the same age, and only one of them had a recent heart attack (that we know of). Regardless, if either of them was in the WH I can think of so much bad shit that would immediately stop or be reversed (again), and I would breathe a (slight) sigh of relief that the composition of the SC won't get even worse. So I don't see why I should be pooping on Biden when his potential election gets me much of what I'd want from a president for the next four years. Which is to say, what someone here or somewhere else said, a president you can ignore. That's the upside of boring.

(weirdly, I've primarily heard the "they're all so old, why are we electing people who are so old" argument from boomers)