Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

its morning here sic

and they have to do it *somewhere*

(((((i will not say politically homeless)))))

Zelda Zonk, the 538 podcast pointed out the establishment probably just learned their lesson from Trump 16. If Bernie wanted to repeat what Trump did, then it looks like he miscalculated.

Fred and xyzzz, it would be cool if you guys don't start a useless fight all night itt

― Fantastic. Great move. Well done (sic), Wednesday, 4 March 2020 bookmarkflaglink

All big amigos here, mate

The Democratic establishment's problem is definitely snake emojis and saying mean things and not the policies that he represents.

Warren was taking very similar shit in her time as front-runner.

(She, of course, took Ezra's advice and positioned herself as a unifying force between the establishment and progressives, quickly lost all the moderate support and finished third in her home state and won't be viable in most Super Tuesday states.)

I really don't think Warren was saying stuff like 'the establishment can't stop us'?

But they balked anyway, that's true, the wealth tax was bad enough.

Yeah, that was the point - she didn't use this supposedly problematic rhetoric and they were going to gun for her anyway, because the establishment's actual problem is with ideology not politesse.

Ezra is rehearsing arguments liberals will use when Trump is re-elected.

Obama just got rich, a wealth tax before he could really enjoy it would be cruel.

I’m kind of baffled by the levels of Warren support this race, tbh? Especially after the DNA thing which was such an awful unforced error that it handed an easy and vivid attack line to Trump, plus it casts doubts on the soundness of her political judgement. Should have run in 2016.

I mean, we'll never know. But polls consistently show that Warren would be a lot of people's second choice, and that she was well liked by nearly all, whereas there always was a lot of never-Sanders people out there mad for one reason or another. Perhaps the lesson should be the progressive movement shouldn't have rallied around a candidate it was so easy for the party to mobilize against?

The lesson is: do progressive politics, just not in the democratic party, or until enough old people die from the coronavirus because no public health.

Is it not a candidates job to convince people? I know she had the emojis stacked up against her but still I'm not sure blmaing voters for failing to support her is the best approach

I don't think the story today is Warren not being able to convince voters... It's the Sanders campaign that has suffered a major setback.

Indeed

xp - who? as noted, Warren was getting the business before her pivot. She's never said the word socialism in a positive manner in her life, she has good hair and a proper upbringing.

If one billionaire pours a half billion into the race, MSNBC and the Times/Post decide to go hard against someone and all the lesser millionaires and billionaires inject their money, there is no candidate that can't be "mobilized against." You take your shots where you can.

In eight years, the Times is going to be running exposes on the time AOC did coke in the bathroom when she was a BARTENDER

But then again, I’m never not confused by the levels of Biden support considering anyone can see what’s going on with him with their own eyes, it’s going to be months of “Hunter Biden”, and this is taking into account DJP’s point about black voters too. I understand that perspective but I don’t understand most of the rest of his support. It’s fine to raise concerns about Bernie’s health, but...Biden!

The Times literally endorsed Warren, perhaps that might be a sign she was more acceptable to all those people you say you can't win if turned against you?

In eight years, the Times is going to be running exposes on the time AOC did coke in the bathroom when she was a BARTENDER

Biden is the most senior democrat, he was VP for eight years! xxxp to gyac

endorsed Warrenbuchar you mean

Lol I know but like...everything else. He should have run in 16 as well.

That's not a real person, milo

NYT editorial staff and Warren 🐍, clearly Bernie has not done his homework

huh, I guess AOC will be eligible to run in 2024, she'll turn 35 a month before the election, I thought she was a full year too young

anyway

weve all had elections lately, what have we learned about how each of us was actually 100% correct

that conservatives win

^^ ding ding ding.

I am never 100% correct I'm only a humble soul.

I doubt that's what deems has learned...

Well if you live in the UK you might feel ever justified in your belief in fishhook theory, especially when you have the same people who were scaremongering about a Labour government now belatedly realising - but not apologising for - their mistake.

If you live in Ireland (or are from there), you might feel grateful we don’t have tons of money or billionaires with their thumb on the scales fucking up our elections...yet.

Anyway
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESQLocEXUAIWzWe?format=jpg&name=large

Elizabeth Warren lost her home state, but she won her home town handily. pic.twitter.com/y3s03rLYAg

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) March 4, 2020

5.9% is the Harvard business school faculty, I assume

What do we think of Biden's chances in November?

Nonexistent.

I think all or nearly all polls shows him winning. By a wider margin than Sanders.

Actually, revising that slightly from “nonexistent” to “marginal” depending on how the epidemic plays out.

I think he has a good chance of making it there, he has looked a little more with it recentlly

I think he'd have a good chance, barring a mass accelerationist gambit and the hard left all voting Trump to purge the Democrat party and clear the decks for Queen Alexandria

As long as he writes down the address I'm sure he'll be fine

Trump has incumbent advantage. That’s big, and any Democratic nominee will be facing that. But it’s the stuff that’s specific to Biden that’ll do for him.

- his decline, if that’s what we’re calling it. Seriously, he looks and sounds awful now. How is he going to handle debates or scrutiny?

- months and months of shithousing over Hunter Biden

- is Trump going to call him a groper and lech every day and get away with it? Absolutely.

Biden has a chance, but I don't see him getting a whole lot more votes than Clinton did in '16. Are there enough enthusiastic Trump voters of '16 disillusioned now all of a sudden? Can't imagine it.

I have read that some of the Bernie Bros are plotting not to vote for him though, some are even going as far as talking about using a new emoji. This may hand the election to Trump and could be something to watch out for

RCP has Sanders/Trump and Biden/Trump almost identical but I suspect there will be more Berniebros fulfilling the 2016 narrative of staying home this time if Biden is the nominee and especially if he doesn't get a delegate majority before the convention.

If Biden can convince the masses that his groping is actually the laying on of hands, proving that he is in fact Jesus Christ, his chances would greatly improve.

trump is unpopular enough and had such a slight margin of victory that i wouldn't rule out biden but i also absolutely believe he could completely throw the election worse than hillary managed to. he can make trump seem coherent in comparison!

And there’s tons of stuff you can throw at Biden and most of it’s true. Let alone stuff like this.

please do not nominate this guy. pic.twitter.com/EZHQEuJtGo

— Elon Green (@elongreen) March 2, 2020

the really dangerous scenario for alienating people is bernie having a delegate lead but being just short of a majority with biden getting the nomination via superdelegates. if biden is ahead anyway or wins outright i think you only lose the same small amount of people who wouldn't have voted for any other dem as last time instead of the more widespread feeling of betrayal and disillusionment you could get with a "superdelegates steal the nomination for biden" narrative.