Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

Outside of Virginia, Sanders mostly loses in states where a Democrat hasn’t a hope in hell.

I mean here's the states that are voting, you can p much guess who's gonna win what, it's just the percentage splits that are the real question. My completely wild ass guess predictions:

Alabama - Biden
American Samoa - eh who knows, but probably Biden
Arkansas - Biden
California - Bernie, probably
Colorado - Bernie
Maine - I honestly dunno about this one
Massachusetts - Bernie
Minnesota - Bernie
North Carolina - Biden
Oklahoma - Biden
Tennessee - Biden
Texas - Bernie, maybe
Utah - Biden
Vermont - Bernie
Virginia - Biden

xps

xps to alfred
i see the office of the presidency as a political one before it is administrative. sanders has done a better job of clearly communicating a policy platform and centering the poor and working class. warren has done a better job of explaining the nuts and bolts of her plans but she has struggled to build a political coalition around that. the plans are great but “i have a plan” is not a good political message.

also the pretendianism is bad and it would super suck to have to listen to defenses of that if she were the nominee.

who the fuck are either of those guys?

multiple xps

I'm sure there are explanations beyond 'multiple candidates suddenly drop out and endorse Biden' for this shift, but for him to go from having basically no chance to a projected blow-out, basically overnight...it sure feels like there's some fuckery afoot.

Joementum > Tulsinertia

Sanders mostly loses in states where a Democrat hasn’t a hope in hell.

on the plus side, in general these states have way fewer delegates

xxp: I think maybe you guys should talk to people who aren't extremely online

I was a confirmed Liz Lad a year ago but my thinking m/l mirrors m bison’s

i see the office of the presidency as a political one before it is administrative. sanders has done a better job of clearly communicating a policy platform and centering the poor and working class. warren has done a better job of explaining the nuts and bolts of her plans but she has struggled to build a political coalition around that. the plans are great but “i have a plan” is not a good political message.

also the pretendianism is bad and it would super suck to have to listen to defenses of that if she were the nominee.

― majority whip, majority nae nae (m bison)

I also see the presidential office as a political one and am sure lots of voters didn't warm to the idea of a woman giving speeches from the Oval Office.

But you're in essence right. Her message wasn't good because she isn't winning.

when the time comes to pull the trigger a lot of people run for the candidate who seems like the one who would pull in a lot of fence-sitters come November, plus he's the ex-VP and the biggest name, all of this more likely to happen after a bunch of others drop out (i don't agree w/this, i voted Warren, but will vote Biden if he's the guy, will vote Sanders if he's the guy).

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/hillary-clinton-mocks-bernie-sanders-in-super-tuesday-shot-his-campaign-is-just-baloney/

big endorsement for Bernie

bernie is my #2 but i hate to say that of my fb Warren friends he is definitely not auto their number 2. There are many that really, really dislike him. It was surprising.

I'm sure there are explanations beyond 'multiple candidates suddenly drop out and endorse Biden' for this shift, but for him to go from having basically no chance to a projected blow-out, basically overnight...it sure feels like there's some fuckery afoot.

― Lake Meat (Old Lunch), Tuesday, March 3, 2020 1:33 PM (nineteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

Also factor in Bloomberg no longer seeming like a strong alternative.

i think Warren is unpolished and doesn't have the same ability to craft her image that a lot of other candidates do (not just Biden and Bernie, but Harris and Mayor Pete too), she is very passionate about the issues she thinks are important, and is more focused on that than she has been on advertising herself. which is what is costing her i guess.

I don't trust Bernie to be a good president and I think most of his plans are pretty half-baked. that said i probably do prefer him over biden + bloomberg or maybe all 3 are about equal in my eyes.

i think she's given too much attention to DJT and his games in the past, which is another reason too. I don't hold it against her, expect in the strategic sense. She wanted to defend herself.

Bloomberg would be, and I am not being hyperbolic here, basically as bad as Trump

oh really? on the climate too?

(no, obviously not. and not on a lot of issues.)

Of the Super Tuesday states, which ones are either swingy or are in some sense "like" swingy states? North Carolina maybe? Virginia? Certainly those are two states where if the same person wins both they're winning the election and it's not out of the question. Minnesota has a decent amount in common with Wisconsin and Michigan. I agree that for GE purposes it's kind of sadly irrelevant what Democrats in California and Oklahoma think.

I think Warren is basically fine

I think Sanders is basically fine

I think Biden is totally fucked but I will be fine if he is President

I think Bloomberg is a gigantic ghoul but I will probably be fine if he is President

she is very passionate about the issues she thinks are important, and is more focused on that than she has been on advertising herself.

This makes more sense to me as a critique of Sanders than Warren. He doesn't do biography; she talks a lot about her upbringing and how she got into politics.

I don't trust Bernie to be a good president and I think most of his plans are pretty half-baked. that said i probably do prefer him over biden + bloomberg or maybe all 3 are about equal in my eyes.

― Mordy, Tuesday, March 3, 2020 2:44 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

you are aware that the candidates “plans” don’t matter with a republican senate, right?

so i shouldn't care what those plans are?

iatee would have us believe that with a Republican Senate we should prefer the candidate with the fewest plans

I know the polls show Bernie & Biden taking a similar lead on Trump but Biden generally has no ideas and is a poor campaigner, plus his political record is downright atrocious and those things are all gonna matter down the stretch

Bloomberg would start a shooting war within six weeks just to get his rocks off, and probably hand out some fat contracts to GEO to build new cages for detained immigrants.

Bloomberg would start a shooting war within six weeks just to get his rocks off

this is incredibly stupid

silby what is that speculation based on?

so i shouldn't care what those plans are?

― Mordy, Tuesday, March 3, 2020 2:48 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean, if you like splitting hairs and arguing on the internet, sure

There's an argument that Biden is the actually the best opportunity for the Democrats to win the Senate.

Bloomberg would start a shooting war within six weeks just to get his rocks off

this is incredibly stupid

― totally unnecessary bewbz of exploitation (DJP), Tuesday, March 3, 2020 11:50 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

silby what is that speculation based on?

― Mordy, Tuesday, March 3, 2020 11:50 AM (fifty-seven seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

bad mood, bean allergy, anxious about covid-19, think Bloomberg is a racist piece of shit with bloodlust

not sure of work task to do, so posting

Someone like me in 20 years will perhaps be closer to fine with Sanders now, someone like me will be much closer to fucked with Biden.

Yeah Bloomberg admitting climate change is real and bringing you Market Solutions to ‘combat’ it is probably outweighed by the fact that if a BLM or immigrant protest happens in his watch he’s a weird angry tiny authoritarian who will revel in using military force to squash it

he is also an investor in fracking

he's an investor in lots of things. he's a billionaire.

he should stop

the only thing worse than a fake billionaire for president would be a real billionaire

Yes, those making environmental arguments in favor (however mild) of Bloomberg should dig a little deeper.

maybe Obama will be the last non-billionaire president

As a billionaire, then, he doesn't need to be investing in fracking. He has plenty of money.

This isn't someone buying stocks in a bad company with their IRA, he doesn't need more.

maybe Trump will be

DJP otm

if you like splitting hairs and arguing on the internet

Fortunately this does not describe any extant ilx0rz

Someone like me in 20 years will perhaps be closer to fine with Sanders now, someone like me will be much closer to fucked with Biden.

Oh great, now I am singing "closer I am to fucked" inna Indigo Girls stylee

The problem with Biden is he'd probably lose to Trump, the problem with Bloomberg is he's dogshit

truly astonished by ilxors assessing him as "basically fine"

it’s mordy

he's an investor in lots of things. he's a billionaire.

hence, no billionaires in office, ever, esp autocrats