Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

I do recall at the time hoping he just wouldn't run and would put the force of his coalition behind her campaign.

I can't deny that I think sort of longingly about what would have happened if Sanders and Biden had both decided their era was past and it was time to stand down; we'd be having a real and meaningful discussion about Warren vs. Harris right now I'm guessing with Bloomberg still hovering around but looking drastically more grisly and decayed by comparison with a younger field. I think the party would be better off.

if you are in Canada and angry that warren supporters aren't throwing their votes behind bernie and thereby maybe allowing a contested primary that may or may not make biden the nominee you may be too deep even if you are on our border

― Mordy, Tuesday, 3 March 2020 14:05 (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

uhhhh we canadians have many very good reasons to be "in this deep" re: paying attn to this election

maybe not as much as people from mexico, central america, south america, syria, iraq, iran, india, china, the rest of the middle east and asia, also much of africa, and the penguins on what remains of antarctica, but yeah, we're preeeeeetty invested in getting you all electing someone better than the right-of-centre or right-of-right-of-centre

the idea that Warren would back Biden seems 10,000 miles beyond insanity to me. I'd say it's 90-95% she endorses Bernie and 5-10 that she endorses no one.

my post that you quoted was talking about Harris fyi

xp

my post that you quoted was talking about Harris fyi

xp

this thread move too fast

I feel like it mostly runs in place tbh

if it were running anywhere i might get a nice endorphin rush but instead i’m just anxious and sad!!!!

I do recall at the time hoping he just wouldn't run and would put the force of his coalition behind her campaign.

So did I, and I wish this had happened.

I voted, so now that I can relax, lemme ask my ILXers: if you voted for Sanders, what is it? An all-in-for-Warren site I frequent scoffs at Sanders fans as people with unrealistic ideas about destroying a system; they're especially contemptuous about Going Over the Heads of Congress to the People; they're rabid about Sanders and the worst bros hounding a Doug Jones or name-your-pick House member from suburban blue district for not falling in line and risking a sea (I worry most about this one); they see red when they think of his regulatory agency and Cabinet picks.

I accept Sanders as a second choice because choosing him at all is like a negotiation. If you've got two left-leaning candidates, go for the one whose persona codes more leftist even when the voting differences are minimal and "Democratic socialism" is a shuck anyway. Ask for everything knowing you'll only get three-quarters, etc, especially in a system that for many voters in their thirties has fucked them since 2007-2008. And I have enormous sympathy for this approach.

However, when you've got a smart woman who's actually pissed off more plutocrats and satraps standing in front of me, and a woman who isn't a heart condition survivor close to eighty, I'll vote for her. I'll admit I wanted a female president. It means a lot. And it meant a lot that Warren was a better candidate than Klobuchar and Gillibrand.

But here we are. Continue.

*risking a seat loss

i feel like you're not really asking

That Intercept piece is worth reading. The premise seems to be that Warren dropping out wouldn't necessarily be a clear benefit to Sanders: He is the leading second choice of her supporters, but only by a plurality (based on polls that still included Buttigieg and Klobuchar). So she should just collect and hang onto her delegates as long as possible rather than drop out and allow any of her supporters to migrate to Biden.

by the way, yikes!

Biden will win VA by at least 15, probably 20 plus and maybe even as much as 30. It’s going to be a blowout and he will win all 11 Congressional Districts. https://t.co/uWPQ3nu3HV

— Ben Tribbett (@notlarrysabato) March 3, 2020

Yikes.

joementum

I would assume Sanders tanks in the South across the board (basically anywhere where black voters are a majority). Possible exception, and bigger prize, is Texas.

Intercept piece's thinking mirrors my own tbh

if you voted for Sanders, what is it?

I'm a single-issue Medicare for All voter. As soon as Warren got squishy about it, it was over.

Sanders will say "Medicare for All" every day for the rest of his life and that's all I want from a president

What I want is someone to fix healthcare in this country. I couldn't possibly care less about the slogan they use.

memes are the only thing that gets through to anyone

Outside of Virginia, Sanders mostly loses in states where a Democrat hasn’t a hope in hell.

I mean here's the states that are voting, you can p much guess who's gonna win what, it's just the percentage splits that are the real question. My completely wild ass guess predictions:

Alabama - Biden
American Samoa - eh who knows, but probably Biden
Arkansas - Biden
California - Bernie, probably
Colorado - Bernie
Maine - I honestly dunno about this one
Massachusetts - Bernie
Minnesota - Bernie
North Carolina - Biden
Oklahoma - Biden
Tennessee - Biden
Texas - Bernie, maybe
Utah - Biden
Vermont - Bernie
Virginia - Biden

xps

xps to alfred
i see the office of the presidency as a political one before it is administrative. sanders has done a better job of clearly communicating a policy platform and centering the poor and working class. warren has done a better job of explaining the nuts and bolts of her plans but she has struggled to build a political coalition around that. the plans are great but “i have a plan” is not a good political message.

also the pretendianism is bad and it would super suck to have to listen to defenses of that if she were the nominee.

who the fuck are either of those guys?

multiple xps

I'm sure there are explanations beyond 'multiple candidates suddenly drop out and endorse Biden' for this shift, but for him to go from having basically no chance to a projected blow-out, basically overnight...it sure feels like there's some fuckery afoot.

Joementum > Tulsinertia

Sanders mostly loses in states where a Democrat hasn’t a hope in hell.

on the plus side, in general these states have way fewer delegates

xxp: I think maybe you guys should talk to people who aren't extremely online

I was a confirmed Liz Lad a year ago but my thinking m/l mirrors m bison’s

i see the office of the presidency as a political one before it is administrative. sanders has done a better job of clearly communicating a policy platform and centering the poor and working class. warren has done a better job of explaining the nuts and bolts of her plans but she has struggled to build a political coalition around that. the plans are great but “i have a plan” is not a good political message.

also the pretendianism is bad and it would super suck to have to listen to defenses of that if she were the nominee.

― majority whip, majority nae nae (m bison)

I also see the presidential office as a political one and am sure lots of voters didn't warm to the idea of a woman giving speeches from the Oval Office.

But you're in essence right. Her message wasn't good because she isn't winning.

when the time comes to pull the trigger a lot of people run for the candidate who seems like the one who would pull in a lot of fence-sitters come November, plus he's the ex-VP and the biggest name, all of this more likely to happen after a bunch of others drop out (i don't agree w/this, i voted Warren, but will vote Biden if he's the guy, will vote Sanders if he's the guy).

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/hillary-clinton-mocks-bernie-sanders-in-super-tuesday-shot-his-campaign-is-just-baloney/

big endorsement for Bernie

bernie is my #2 but i hate to say that of my fb Warren friends he is definitely not auto their number 2. There are many that really, really dislike him. It was surprising.

I'm sure there are explanations beyond 'multiple candidates suddenly drop out and endorse Biden' for this shift, but for him to go from having basically no chance to a projected blow-out, basically overnight...it sure feels like there's some fuckery afoot.

― Lake Meat (Old Lunch), Tuesday, March 3, 2020 1:33 PM (nineteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

Also factor in Bloomberg no longer seeming like a strong alternative.

i think Warren is unpolished and doesn't have the same ability to craft her image that a lot of other candidates do (not just Biden and Bernie, but Harris and Mayor Pete too), she is very passionate about the issues she thinks are important, and is more focused on that than she has been on advertising herself. which is what is costing her i guess.

I don't trust Bernie to be a good president and I think most of his plans are pretty half-baked. that said i probably do prefer him over biden + bloomberg or maybe all 3 are about equal in my eyes.

i think she's given too much attention to DJT and his games in the past, which is another reason too. I don't hold it against her, expect in the strategic sense. She wanted to defend herself.

Bloomberg would be, and I am not being hyperbolic here, basically as bad as Trump

oh really? on the climate too?

(no, obviously not. and not on a lot of issues.)

Of the Super Tuesday states, which ones are either swingy or are in some sense "like" swingy states? North Carolina maybe? Virginia? Certainly those are two states where if the same person wins both they're winning the election and it's not out of the question. Minnesota has a decent amount in common with Wisconsin and Michigan. I agree that for GE purposes it's kind of sadly irrelevant what Democrats in California and Oklahoma think.

I think Warren is basically fine

I think Sanders is basically fine

I think Biden is totally fucked but I will be fine if he is President

I think Bloomberg is a gigantic ghoul but I will probably be fine if he is President

she is very passionate about the issues she thinks are important, and is more focused on that than she has been on advertising herself.

This makes more sense to me as a critique of Sanders than Warren. He doesn't do biography; she talks a lot about her upbringing and how she got into politics.

I don't trust Bernie to be a good president and I think most of his plans are pretty half-baked. that said i probably do prefer him over biden + bloomberg or maybe all 3 are about equal in my eyes.

― Mordy, Tuesday, March 3, 2020 2:44 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

you are aware that the candidates “plans” don’t matter with a republican senate, right?

so i shouldn't care what those plans are?

iatee would have us believe that with a Republican Senate we should prefer the candidate with the fewest plans

I know the polls show Bernie & Biden taking a similar lead on Trump but Biden generally has no ideas and is a poor campaigner, plus his political record is downright atrocious and those things are all gonna matter down the stretch

Bloomberg would start a shooting war within six weeks just to get his rocks off, and probably hand out some fat contracts to GEO to build new cages for detained immigrants.

Bloomberg would start a shooting war within six weeks just to get his rocks off

this is incredibly stupid

silby what is that speculation based on?