Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

Wow, 538 now has Biden with a 31% chance to win a majority and Sanders with 8%. Sanders was at 50% in the last week iirc? The guy won one state and the whole map has changed?

― Sund4r, Tuesday, 3 March 2020 bookmarkflaglink

Lol what a fraud

It was inevitable that once Biden won his first primary in 30+ years that the presidency would follow soon thereafter, yes?

Data for Progress has a B/C rating from 538. Odd that they seem to be weighting it so heavily.

538 like everyone else thrives on A Changing Narrative. they gotta eat.

538 are all about the endorsements, two big ones make a huge difference to them.

according to nate they don't

Forecast updated with Kloubchar's exit, new national polls, endorsements (though endorsements have a pretty marginal influence on the model). https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 2, 2020

(which of course means assuming that's true, but it seems like a very weird thing to lie about)

Think I got my info from same source! though cant find it now of course. guessing they are assuming pete & Amy's votes are going to Biden either way though.

i think the bigger factors are pete and klob dropping out and the swift bursting of bloomberg's bubble. biden suddenly much more likely to pull pluralities and majorities in states where he was previously like, one of several people down around 20%. :-/

obv their model is next to useless as a predictor of campaign and historical events (no way for it to say "klob will drop out on this date and that will affect the race thusly" ) --- it's really like a constant simulator of a particularly mathy pundit with pretenses of objectivity, aka RoboNate

they might be right though. what they really lack are the wide error bars either side.

Lots of early voting to take into consideration here, too, much of it prior to any of the shake-ups over the past couple of days.

obv their model is next to useless as a predictor of campaign and historical events

But isn't that its whole value proposition? As it stands it seems like 538 is just reacting to information the same way everyone else is, just with a veneer of numeracy.

yes

anyway i make the following prediction, if we all just tune out (and those of us who are in today's primary states go vote), and then wait somewhere between 12 and 24 hours, we will have some quantity of probably incomplete results that we don't have now

working from home today and have MSNBC on in the background, It's fucking insane how much these people are actively trying to tank Bernie and prop up Biden. Fuck this shit!

xpost What you suggest seems...impossible, Doctor.

The Doctor has the right prescription. No ilx, no twitter for me today. My anxieties were getting the better of me yesterday and I can't see constant updating myself on zero percent results helping.

Good morning!

I wonder what the odds are that one of these septuagenarian candidates shaking hands with total strangers all day long will come down with the coronavirus before this campaign season is over.

Yeah, feelin' like my plan this year is to vote and then immediately hack through the coax with a steak knife, dunk the router in the toilet, chuck the phone under the wheels of a passing bus, etc. And then just submit to the whims of fate.

Either Coronavirus or actual dementia.

A solid post-mortem.

But isn't that its whole value proposition?

No

Loomis seems rather restrained today.

In conclusion, my endorsement is 1) Warren, 2) Sanders, 3) Drinking Bleach, 4) Biden, 5) Listening to a Rush album on repeat for a year, 6) Bloomberg.

hey number five is definitely better than drinking bleach if that album is signals

Grace Under Pressure addresses our present political context imo

Bernie or we’re all gonna die but more importantly many specifically vulnerable people are gonna die in preventable ways bc it is a bad country. Idk y’all.

woah slandering Rush? I'm voting for Trump now

Bernie or we’re all gonna die but more importantly many specifically vulnerable people are gonna die in preventable ways bc it is a bad country. Idk y’all.

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVBdb_NjO9A

I wonder what the odds are that one of these septuagenarian candidates shaking hands with total strangers all day long will come down with the coronavirus before this campaign season is over.

...and yet it still feels a trifle ghoulish to suggest that Warren's best path to the presidency is Bernie having a heart attack

internet declared unusable today, everyone can log off now

No, I will never etc.

Good lord, I didn't know Marianne Fucking Williamson is a Sanders surrogate.

Feels red
Inside my head
And truth is often bitter
Left unsaid
Said red red
Thinking about the overhead
The underfed
Couldn't we talk about something else instead?

The 538 forecast isn't so much a prediction of future events as it is a simulation of results based on current inputs. If today's polls show that Sanders has a 10-point lead on Biden in Colorado, then 538 says there is *currently* a good chance that he will win that state, pick up X number of delegates, and thus be Y% more likely to win the nomination. But if tomorrow's polls show that the lead has narrowed, or that Biden has overtaken Sanders, or that Biden was endorsed by Colorado's governor, then the odds obviously change accordingly. 538 can't predict tomorrow's polls or endorsements and doesn't claim to be able to.

My dad voted for Bernie and my mom for Warren so I guess not every boomer is past saving.

I feel like there's been so many "Democratic establishment closes ranks to STOP BERNIE" takes in the last 48 hours that a lot of people are going to see it as a major coup for Sanders when he wins the barrels and barrels of delegates he was always going to win today.

today just trying to avoid twitter and remind myself that dem elites have continually proven themselves to be hapless and stupid

so have dem non-elites tho

non-Dem non-elites too

Can we poll them?

Trying to reconcile my famously charitable and easygoing demeanor and my insane desire to stab smug Warren voters

I may need to log off.

silby, gah, get help dude

... yeah silby you need to log off

I would support locking this thread for 24 hours

No no its okay I got through it I’m fine now

i mean i didn't want to stab any of the sanders supporters who are employing the very successful strategy of telling people their preferred candidate isn't viable and they should vote for the other guy

You know what has consistently avoided hapless stupidity, throughout the ages?

The innocence of a child.

Namaste.

- Bob Marley