Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

Here’s the poll itself

Super Tuesday Polls:
CA: Sanders +7
TX: Biden +2
NC: Biden +9
VA: Biden +15
MA: Warren +2
MN: Sanders +5
CO: Sanders +11
TN: Biden +7
AL: Biden +25
AR: Biden +13
OK: Biden +7
UT: Sanders +6
VT: Sanders +41
Conducted last ~5 days via text to web.https://t.co/6Oa8kA3ala

— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) March 3, 2020

Apparently it’s weighted heavily towards 45+ voters so hopefully a bit misleading, but guys like Nate Silver are taking it seriously so

you quite literally hate to see it

Is this such a surprise? Biden always led in the South.

Remember that Bloomberg’s entire role in this race was not to win, but to run commercials against Bernie without any financial or regulatory constraint. The last month has seen the US imperial oligarchy pool its power and resources in an all-out campaign to crush the left. /1

— Dan Kervick (@DanMKervick) March 3, 2020

15 point swing towards Biden is def a surprise

This is totally going to come down to a vote for senility or senility, isn't it. Fucking isn't it.

fuck this dumb country man

A 77-year-old vs. a 73-year-old, both in a state of rapid mental decline, but only one will lead our country for a minimum of four befuddled years. Who will it be? Who will oh look a rabbit, hi there bunny rabbit, will you be my

xp -- I was talking to a relative in one of the super tuesday states about bloomberg and pointing out that if they disliked biden's handsiness (which they did) then wait until they saw bloomberg's long string of NDAs and harassment settlements; they'd genuinely never heard of them

stop doomposting pls xps

wait until they saw bloomberg's long string of NDAs and harassment settlements; they'd genuinely never heard of them

this has been my experience as well

“fun” to watch the Democratic Party crash the car in slow motion

remember when

Beto: pic.twitter.com/kpD69IiVeU

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) March 3, 2020

politicians change minds for the sake of "coalescing" what a shock

oh youre so bored with the whole thing

guess what i'm bored with

Wow, 538 now has Biden with a 31% chance to win a majority and Sanders with 8%. Sanders was at 50% in the last week iirc? The guy won one state and the whole map has changed?

Those motherfuckers update that thing every hour.

makes you wonder what value those prognostications have if an entirely predictable sequence of events upsets them so completely?

fear and cowardice, the core American values

Biden thread gonna move into the kinda lol but mostly sad column in short order

Wow, 538 now has Biden with a 31% chance to win a majority and Sanders with 8%. Sanders was at 50% in the last week iirc? The guy won one state and the whole map has changed?

― Sund4r, Tuesday, 3 March 2020 bookmarkflaglink

Lol what a fraud

It was inevitable that once Biden won his first primary in 30+ years that the presidency would follow soon thereafter, yes?

Data for Progress has a B/C rating from 538. Odd that they seem to be weighting it so heavily.

538 like everyone else thrives on A Changing Narrative. they gotta eat.

538 are all about the endorsements, two big ones make a huge difference to them.

according to nate they don't

Forecast updated with Kloubchar's exit, new national polls, endorsements (though endorsements have a pretty marginal influence on the model). https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 2, 2020

(which of course means assuming that's true, but it seems like a very weird thing to lie about)

Think I got my info from same source! though cant find it now of course. guessing they are assuming pete & Amy's votes are going to Biden either way though.

i think the bigger factors are pete and klob dropping out and the swift bursting of bloomberg's bubble. biden suddenly much more likely to pull pluralities and majorities in states where he was previously like, one of several people down around 20%. :-/

obv their model is next to useless as a predictor of campaign and historical events (no way for it to say "klob will drop out on this date and that will affect the race thusly" ) --- it's really like a constant simulator of a particularly mathy pundit with pretenses of objectivity, aka RoboNate

they might be right though. what they really lack are the wide error bars either side.

Lots of early voting to take into consideration here, too, much of it prior to any of the shake-ups over the past couple of days.

obv their model is next to useless as a predictor of campaign and historical events

But isn't that its whole value proposition? As it stands it seems like 538 is just reacting to information the same way everyone else is, just with a veneer of numeracy.

yes

anyway i make the following prediction, if we all just tune out (and those of us who are in today's primary states go vote), and then wait somewhere between 12 and 24 hours, we will have some quantity of probably incomplete results that we don't have now

working from home today and have MSNBC on in the background, It's fucking insane how much these people are actively trying to tank Bernie and prop up Biden. Fuck this shit!

xpost What you suggest seems...impossible, Doctor.

The Doctor has the right prescription. No ilx, no twitter for me today. My anxieties were getting the better of me yesterday and I can't see constant updating myself on zero percent results helping.

Good morning!

I wonder what the odds are that one of these septuagenarian candidates shaking hands with total strangers all day long will come down with the coronavirus before this campaign season is over.

Yeah, feelin' like my plan this year is to vote and then immediately hack through the coax with a steak knife, dunk the router in the toilet, chuck the phone under the wheels of a passing bus, etc. And then just submit to the whims of fate.

Either Coronavirus or actual dementia.

A solid post-mortem.

But isn't that its whole value proposition?

No

Loomis seems rather restrained today.

In conclusion, my endorsement is 1) Warren, 2) Sanders, 3) Drinking Bleach, 4) Biden, 5) Listening to a Rush album on repeat for a year, 6) Bloomberg.

hey number five is definitely better than drinking bleach if that album is signals

Grace Under Pressure addresses our present political context imo

Bernie or we’re all gonna die but more importantly many specifically vulnerable people are gonna die in preventable ways bc it is a bad country. Idk y’all.

woah slandering Rush? I'm voting for Trump now

Bernie or we’re all gonna die but more importantly many specifically vulnerable people are gonna die in preventable ways bc it is a bad country. Idk y’all.

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVBdb_NjO9A