Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

I do think it's important work, and done well it can to a more informed polis

Plus hats. Don't forget the hats.

If there weren't local journalists sitting in on all the sessions and hearings at the state capitol I wouldn't have any idea what was going on there, which would be bad. That work is not exactly glamorous but I'm sure glad there are still people getting paid to do it.

You wanna talk not glamorous, how about you're 4 hours into a County Commission meeting and ready to go home and some damn neighborhood group shows up to fight with some damn developer and the prospect of ever getting out of there starts to feel increasingly remote ...

My journalism hopes were dashed in high school when a friend a few years older graduated early from USC and came back to take his first job as a professional... driving around BFE covering high school football games.

And you can’t even get that job anymore!

so will Warren endorse Sanders or Biden if she drops out in a few weeks?

yes

It's pretty leftwing brain worms even to ask the question, imo.

Good luck (chunk of) usa

so will Warren endorse Sanders or Biden if she drops out in a few weeks?

― akm

I mean maybe, but he consistently calls for things fails to get done and consistently opposes things he fails to stop so who knows

and thats over a 30 year period!

Let go and let God IIRC

I'm just the messenger dont shoot me!

Voted, got the sticker.

Now imma stay drunk till late October thxbye

no need to valorize Cronkite, he was a mouthpiece for the Man most of the time

(ie the kind of guy Chris Matthews gets teary over)

she will endorse Biden and it’s going to be hilarious

and here’s why

One weird trick to winning the Democratic nomination - doctors hate IT!

Humongous shift towards Biden these last few days

Here's the shift in the Sanders/Biden margin Data for Progress data from now compared to post-NV: CO +24 S to +14 S, NC: +2 S to +9 B, TX: +9 S to +2 B, VA: +9 S to +15 B (!)... Average shift +14 B... That is NUTS. (1/?)

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 3, 2020

Just lmao at this idiot country

Here’s the poll itself

Super Tuesday Polls:
CA: Sanders +7
TX: Biden +2
NC: Biden +9
VA: Biden +15
MA: Warren +2
MN: Sanders +5
CO: Sanders +11
TN: Biden +7
AL: Biden +25
AR: Biden +13
OK: Biden +7
UT: Sanders +6
VT: Sanders +41
Conducted last ~5 days via text to web.https://t.co/6Oa8kA3ala

— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) March 3, 2020

Apparently it’s weighted heavily towards 45+ voters so hopefully a bit misleading, but guys like Nate Silver are taking it seriously so

you quite literally hate to see it

Is this such a surprise? Biden always led in the South.

Remember that Bloomberg’s entire role in this race was not to win, but to run commercials against Bernie without any financial or regulatory constraint. The last month has seen the US imperial oligarchy pool its power and resources in an all-out campaign to crush the left. /1

— Dan Kervick (@DanMKervick) March 3, 2020

15 point swing towards Biden is def a surprise

This is totally going to come down to a vote for senility or senility, isn't it. Fucking isn't it.

fuck this dumb country man

A 77-year-old vs. a 73-year-old, both in a state of rapid mental decline, but only one will lead our country for a minimum of four befuddled years. Who will it be? Who will oh look a rabbit, hi there bunny rabbit, will you be my

xp -- I was talking to a relative in one of the super tuesday states about bloomberg and pointing out that if they disliked biden's handsiness (which they did) then wait until they saw bloomberg's long string of NDAs and harassment settlements; they'd genuinely never heard of them

stop doomposting pls xps

wait until they saw bloomberg's long string of NDAs and harassment settlements; they'd genuinely never heard of them

this has been my experience as well

“fun” to watch the Democratic Party crash the car in slow motion

remember when

Beto: pic.twitter.com/kpD69IiVeU

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) March 3, 2020

politicians change minds for the sake of "coalescing" what a shock

oh youre so bored with the whole thing

guess what i'm bored with

Wow, 538 now has Biden with a 31% chance to win a majority and Sanders with 8%. Sanders was at 50% in the last week iirc? The guy won one state and the whole map has changed?

Those motherfuckers update that thing every hour.

makes you wonder what value those prognostications have if an entirely predictable sequence of events upsets them so completely?

fear and cowardice, the core American values

Biden thread gonna move into the kinda lol but mostly sad column in short order

Wow, 538 now has Biden with a 31% chance to win a majority and Sanders with 8%. Sanders was at 50% in the last week iirc? The guy won one state and the whole map has changed?

― Sund4r, Tuesday, 3 March 2020 bookmarkflaglink

Lol what a fraud

It was inevitable that once Biden won his first primary in 30+ years that the presidency would follow soon thereafter, yes?

Data for Progress has a B/C rating from 538. Odd that they seem to be weighting it so heavily.

538 like everyone else thrives on A Changing Narrative. they gotta eat.

538 are all about the endorsements, two big ones make a huge difference to them.

according to nate they don't

Forecast updated with Kloubchar's exit, new national polls, endorsements (though endorsements have a pretty marginal influence on the model). https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 2, 2020

(which of course means assuming that's true, but it seems like a very weird thing to lie about)

Think I got my info from same source! though cant find it now of course. guessing they are assuming pete & Amy's votes are going to Biden either way though.

i think the bigger factors are pete and klob dropping out and the swift bursting of bloomberg's bubble. biden suddenly much more likely to pull pluralities and majorities in states where he was previously like, one of several people down around 20%. :-/

obv their model is next to useless as a predictor of campaign and historical events (no way for it to say "klob will drop out on this date and that will affect the race thusly" ) --- it's really like a constant simulator of a particularly mathy pundit with pretenses of objectivity, aka RoboNate