Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

meanwhile early voting has begun in Florida.

I can vote on campus. Decisions.

iirc fall in line and vote for sanders

Pete and Amy back on stage together:

NEWS: A source familiar with the plans tells me Pete Buttigieg will endorse Joe Biden at a rally in Dallas tonight.

— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) March 2, 2020

this is where early voting gets kind of weird, have to imagine there's been a lot of Klobuchar early votes in MN

irc fall in line and vote for sanders

― mellon collie and the infinite bradness (BradNelson),

No lines!

So, how does Michael Tae Sweeney explain the Best Picture winners of the past two three four five six aw fuck it decades?

― A is for (Aimless), Monday, March 2, 2020 2:10 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

The ranked-choice instant-runoff thing at the Oscars has only been a feature for the last decade or so.

this is where early voting gets kind of weird, have to imagine there's been a lot of Klobuchar early votes in MN

Everyone who voted early for Klobuchar gets to put an African-American teenager in jail

Trying reallllllllly hard not to engage with a friend, a Sanders diehard who just posted this:

"Their intentions are clear. They're all in it to stop the progressive candidate that wants real change. I urge Warren supporters to get behind Bernie now because she no longer has a chance, and I've heard the entire time that we want the same things anyway."

I guess "Nobody is owed your vote, they have to earn it" is a one-way principle.

You don’t have to like the sentiment but if you don’t want Biden you should support Sanders, and there’s really no way Warren can overtake him.

voted for Warren. If there's going to be a brokered convention I want her to be the one with the deciding delegates. Also sympathetic to my wife's steadfast commitment to having a candidate that isn't an old white guy, so something of a show of solidarity to it too.

Jernie Banders

I guess "Nobody is owed your vote, they have to earn it" is a one-way principle.

agree that the Berniebros adoption of standard centrist Dem arguments is both utterly predictable and hilarious

One of my Facebook friends (another singing acquaintance) just posted "BIDEN AND BUTTIGIEG: it's the only way we're taking this MF-er down" and I am having a difficult time not writing "Aren't you Canadian?" in response (he is; he may have become an American citizen in the past 20 years, though)

Prediction based on nothing but gut and anecdotes (both of which are unhelpful in this situation, I acknowledge): Warren is going to do better tomorrow than a lot of people think, which is going to complicate the Sanders narrative. I don't know what I mean by "better," exactly, but if she beats Bernie a few places -- gets some 2nd places, maybe -- it will be harder for the Sanders folks to drum her out.

xps to Eliza: I don't think that "urging" you to support Sanders is the equivalent of threatening you if you don't. Vote as you see fit. Your friend most likely will understand your right to choose for yourself and all will be well between you.

My prediction is that it's going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy that bumps her out; because everyone is saying that she can't win, fewer people will vote for her, making it more likely she won't win anything; if she ends up behind people who dropped out but have already garnered early votes (or just behind Bloomberg), I expect her to end her campaign.

The desire for a neat narrative before 95% of the country has participated is human enough, but lots of stupid things qualify as typically human.

I wonder *why* it is ppl started to think she couldn't win in the first place

Democracy for America, the group that started the “Run Warren Run” movement that urged Elizabeth Warren to run for president in 2016, will endorse Bernie Sanders this year. 80% of its 38,000 members voted to back Sanders in a recent poll, it said. https://t.co/PkBBHzm4QA pic.twitter.com/yPYieKV13w

— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 2, 2020

@tipsy: Cory Booker's campaign manager agrees with you.

Not a Warren supporter but in the last 24 hours the two candidates most squarely standing in her way of consolidating a base (college educated voters and older women) have dropped out. Think she will perform better going forward than she has to date. Might be too late, tho. https://t.co/15ogiphsD4

— Addisu Demissie (@ASDem) March 2, 2020

Fuck it.

Gonna vote for Martin O'Malley.

well all the candidates are going to perform better now, I think the major question is just how hard Bloomberg is gonna fall on his face

the idea that the race is "progressives vs. centrists" is...not really borne out in the polling? Sanders is the 2nd choice for the supporters of nearly every other candidate.

"Their intentions are clear. They're all in it to stop the progressive candidate that wants real change. I urge Warren supporters to get behind Bernie now because she no longer has a chance, and I've heard the entire time that we want the same things anyway."

i have seen two posts exactly like this, from different people

hope it works for them i guess

Thanks Shakey, I'm following your lead on that.

do it! both of us are warren, and really hope she won't be out of it by the time we get to vote.

I voted Bernie and Clinton before that in the last primaries so obviously I have no fear of voting for the losing candidate.

I think if Warren denies both Bernie and Biden a delegate majority, that's a good outcome. At that point, she can extract concessions (what those would be exactly idk, but I like her as a figure that bridges the party divide)

will it play out that way? who knows.

Uh oh, Yerac:

https://news.mit.edu/2015/harbinger-failure-consumers-unpopular-products-1223

Urging you to vote for Sanders is nothing like hectoring Nader voters for 8 years.

maybe i'm just ahead of my motherfucking time. xpost.

if you don’t want Biden you should support Sanders, and there’s really no way Warren can overtake him

Hate to say this (because I truly do not wish it), but if there is a serious Bernie heart scare, I suspect having Warren still in the race would be a good thing.

I think the major question is just how hard Bloomberg is gonna fall on his face

Not obvious to me this is happening. In my online world, attention to Bloomberg has already crested, but most people get their media from local TV and I think Bloomberg's ad buys are still dominant there?

Bloomberg already had dropped to 11% in Ca before the SC primary. He's gonna tank.

as I've been saying for weeks, I'd bet money he doesn't crack 15% anywhere.

Warren, however, *will* crack 15%, which means she'll finally get some delegates. How many remains to be seen.

if Bernie is short of a majority, i feel dreadfully certain he'll be shafted.

shut your mouth

I think if Warren denies both Bernie and Biden a delegate majority, that's a good outcome.

For Trump.

I won't have to decide irrevocably until mid-May. Tomorrow's results will push the ball ahead in a big way, but by mid-May there will be an abundance of info for me to use to make my decision.

if Bernie is short of a majority, i feel dreadfully certain he'll be shafted.

aren't you ever happy about having your expectations met

Hey, he used "dreadfully" – it's a concession.

I can't decide if Bernie winning the nomination or Bernie losing the nomination will make his supporters act freakier.

yes

exactly my position

I think if Warren denies both Bernie and Biden a delegate majority, that's a good outcome.

For Trump.

We all do recognize that our well-considered and deeply held political opinions are as but one grain of sand on a vast trash-strewn beach, don't we?

The important thing is that you’ll be able to feel superior to them.

i don't even live in a super tuesday state but i really love having warren's totally nonexistent chances of victory explained to me as if i am a three-year-old

The important thing is that you’ll be able to feel superior to them.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z)

^^ Berniebro motto iirc

ugh

so here's what I've learned from the Dem voter hot takes the previous few days:

-It's bad if Bernie wins a plurality but not a majority if he gets shafted
-It's bad if Bernie gets a majority because he'll scare away the centrists
-Bernie being the nominee is the only way we'll win
-Bernie being the nominee is the only way we'll lose
-A brokered convention isn't a bad thing
-A brokered convention is a bad thing
-Biden is the only one who can beat Trump
-Biden is a disaster
-I don't know why Warren is still in the competition, she should drop out
-Warren can't drop out, she's helping move Biden to the left
-Everybody should be killed

you go and save the best for last