Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

like this has been a messy primary and hate is being flung around in every direction, you can't possibly be surprised if supporters of one candidate aren't big fans of another candidate

there are good people on both sides

are you shocked that the side with 3-5 times the support is giving you more examples to get angry about

milo i know this place can get pretty hagiographic about warren but you've got a serious case of the twitter brain

I was responding to the (dumb and meaningless) phrase "dynamic campaigner" in terms of a VP role, and specifically in that there's no evidence of her being a great politician (or campaigner).

Warren is a great debater and probably an outstanding bureaucrat. She does not appear to be particularly skilled as a politician, any more than anyone else in high office (and less than many). Klobuchar has a stronger claim of political skill - she worked her way up the ranks of political offices, had less of a core of support at the start of all this bullshit and has stuck it out just as long and to just about as great an effect.

don't think most of that even matters when it comes to campaigning though. she's an energetic, clear speaker who fires people up and carries a devoted base. and to the majority of americans she's the #2 figure (still ahead of AOC) in a progressive movement that has very few big figures; if she isn't a part of the bernie campaign if he gets the nomination, it makes the movement seem much weaker. it would also make bernie look like a ridiculous isolated crank if she isn't invited to the tent. the tent's gonna need to be big if a progressive has any hope of beating trump imo

OTM

What does matter when it comes to campaigning, then? Who's a bad campaigner? (That's kind of my point, it's a nonsense metric - Bloomberg and Tulsi aside they all have bases, they all have crowds.)

It's up to Warren, not Sanders, whether she's 'inside the tent' and campaigning for him if he's the nominee - which is very different from being the VP nominee.

Her base, in particular, is kind of irrelevant - upper middle class liberals and liberals with graduate degrees are going to vote the Democrat regardless. They don't need to be kept onside. Klobuchar would be a better 'let's talk about some game theory' VP pick.

don't think most of that even matters when it comes to campaigning though. she's an energetic, clear speaker who fires people up and carries a devoted base. and to the majority of americans she's the #2 figure (still ahead of AOC) in a progressive movement that has very few big figures; if she isn't a part of the bernie campaign if he gets the nomination, it makes the movement seem much weaker. it would also make bernie look like a ridiculous isolated crank if she isn't invited to the tent. the tent's gonna need to be big if a progressive has any hope of beating trump imo

― ℺ ☽ ⋠ ⏎ (✖),

otm

*vote for the Democrat

What does matter when it comes to campaigning, then? Who's a bad campaigner? (That's kind of my point, it's a nonsense metric - Bloomberg and Tulsi aside they all have bases, they all have crowds.)

It's up to Warren, not Sanders, whether she's 'inside the tent' and campaigning for him if he's the nominee - which is very different from being the VP nominee.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Sunday, March 1, 2020 5:50 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Her base, in particular, is kind of irrelevant - upper middle class liberals and liberals with graduate degrees are going to vote the Democrat regardless. They don't need to be kept onside. Klobuchar would be a better 'let's talk about some game theory' VP pick.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Sunday, March 1, 2020 5:52 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Campaigning is just PR! Admittedly her campaign had made some huge mistakes, most of all the DNA thing, but getting your own campaign off the ground is a different story than stumping for someone else.

The bargain for Bernie is that he would probably much rather have her in Senate than his cabinet while she would probably not want to drop out of the race without switching jobs, and she may only campaign for him under the assumption of a cabinet position. But I might be fanficking. I just can't imagine either of them happily returning to senate after all they've put into this race. None of this would be a problem if hard blue states would stop voting for GOP governors.

As for her base, she wouldn't expand his much in the general but could probably win him the primary. Her supporters at this point seem as likely to support Biden or Pete or Amy. A solid chunk seems to hate bernie and wouldn't consider him without a liz endorsement.

Buttigieg out?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-drops-out.html

But even then it means something to have someone like that stumping for you even for voters who weren't supporting her. She wouldn't just be trying to bring in her base, she'd be stumping to make bernie look more appealing and less scary to mods and undecideds.

Xp

Holy moly

PETE OUT!

THIS IS NOT A DRILL!

idgi, why not wait until wednesday

Every day alive costs money

People go back to the Senate all the time, even after losing as the nominee. If she'd only endorse and campaign in exchange for a Cabinet position... I mean, that's on her deciding to be outside of the tent. (nb: I think this is irrelevant and never going to happen, she'll campaign for him just like he did Hillary)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg8BaOaQKxQ

Joementum is unstoppable (god help us all)

watching the statement on MSNBC

yep!

WASHINGTON (AP) — AP sources: @PeteButtigieg ending his race for Democratic presidential nomination. pic.twitter.com/yz4vO5Jtka

— Meg Kinnard (@MegKinnardAP) March 1, 2020

Bad news

you're assuming all his votes go to centrist biden? i'm not so sure.
the more i've seen of buttigieg the less i have liked him, this seems positive.

Peace out Pete

All seven remaining Buttigieg voters outside the early states

Fewer candidates means more candidates reaching 15%

Imagine the 538 odds are gonna shoot up to 90% brokered convention

Times with ~the narrative~ it could mean a surge to Biden too

so do any of the Super Tuesday states allow for early vote "spoilage" if they voted for Buttigieg? I know Minnesota did, but I know Pennsylvania apparently doesn't.

Times = timed

It'll definitely mean a surge for Biden, right? How many Buttigieg supporters are gonna break for Bernard?

Okay, these numbers are different than the Morning Consult ones. If more accurae, Buttigieg could give a lift to Warren (in particular). https://t.co/8MUlEQwVdt

— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) March 1, 2020

God only knows if this means anything:

Buttigieg's Supporters Second Choice:

Sanders 21%
Biden 19%
Warren 19%
Bloomberg 17%

According to @MorningConsult National Poll https://t.co/MpPCWmz6bM

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) March 1, 2020

so basically I predict that it's unpredictable and we'll find out Tuesday night

who knows if those numbers account for post-SC Joementum

quick sniff around on kneejerk pundit reactions online suggests to me no one really knows where his votes are going as i'm seeing wildly divergent responses

No way to swing this as not being bad news for bernie, even if the votes are spread evenly it adds to everyone else's viability

you really need to buff out that record you're playing man

Maybe this is all a cunning plot for a brokered convention where they all jump in to support Bernie, earning the love and adoration of all the Bros.

it also depends on what proportion of the vote was already cast vs will be cast on Tuesday, etc

I am pretty sure the polling isn't great for second choice options. I wouldn't read too much into either.

by all means though, anybody who wants a new peptic ulcer between now and Tuesday is welcome to it.

for instance, that poll showing Klobuchar being the second choice, many may have answered that in a perfect world situation, i.e. "this is my second favorite candidate", but might not want to vote for her as it feels like throwing their votes away since she doesn't have a chance in Hell.

i learned about this because anita baker retweeted the ny times tweet about it #news

Nate's view:

Buttigieg dropping out is harmful to Sanders in 2 ways. Per the economist, relatively few Buttigieg voters were also considering Bernie. But, his voters will now help Biden, Warren and Bloomberg to hit 15% in more states and districts.https://t.co/4JApGxCCKx

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 1, 2020

clearly just skimming ilx and then raking in those sweet analyst samoleans

yes i said “sweet analyst”

prob smart for Pete, he's done enough to be a player next time

Congratulations to Klobuchar for outlasting someone she clearly envisioned engulfed in flames every time she closed her eyes. Now she can drop out herself.

pete finishing vmic with the ultimate "good boy" move

I wonder by what back channel the bad news came