Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

Yeah, dem voters in SC are ancient and moderate. I think the story here is that the mods and undecideds finally coalesced around one guy. I'm unironically worried, but that's what I do I guess

In the primaries to date, no indication Sanders can increase youth vote by the +30% needed for him to win in the general.

Broockman & Kalla, 2020. Candidate Ideology and Vote Choice in the 2020 US Presidential Election.

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QbfMNzynTWUEkhTf1GZoWaGf7dU=/0x0:2400x1650/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2400x1650):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19745066/youth_turnout.png

I could live with Biden-Warren 2020. If not, AOC-somebody 2024.

Cool

SC IS A RED STATE

SC IS A RED STATE

So is Iowa.

Looks like Bernie’s still got the same problems he’s always had, in terms of voters

Can’t deliver bigger youth turnout, can’t crack the black vote, alienates older/more moderate Dems

eh, biden put a lot of eggs in this basket.

Biden, however, also has the same problems he always had, and is probably gonna get creamed on Tuesday

sanders is definitely well behind biden with Black voters over 30, and that gives biden a huge advantage in deep south states during the primary. but the gap b/w biden and sanders in NV was 10%, and sanders has done a much better job in 2020 of courting latinx voters which will make a big difference in tx and ca on tuesday.

biden has put pretty much no resources into super tuesday (seemingly because he doesn't have any to spare) so he could very easily under perform even in the southern states where he's expected to do well

Only took him 32 years, but Joe Biden finally won a primary. In a state the Democrats are gonna lose by double digits in November no matter who the nominee is. Go Joe!

yall dont do this.

Post? I agree.

yall dont do this.

otm. Democratic voters in SC deserve their say in who gets the nomination, just like the rest of us.

Thank god Steyer's getting out--I cringed every time he spoke at a debate.

I'd be content with a primary system in which only states that were within 5% on the last general had a say. It would be more economic and strategic.

that is a ridiculous idea

so, an average Sanpaku take

I liked Steyer, he became my third choice. Now I don't really have a third choice. It's Sander/Warren or a bunch of 'eh'.

Is it? With the exception of 1984, 10 states have decided the presidency in my lifetime. Why not bring attention to this absurdity?

I have a feeling this will dwindle down to Sanders vs Biden with everyone else dropping out within a month. But I don't know what the primary schedule is after this week.

Why not abolish the electoral college you dingus

while bloomberg doesn’t appear to have much of a plan after super tuesday, he doesn’t have the whole “ran outta money” problem that others will have.

iow mikes not dropping out this early after all the money he’s spending...probably

why is everyone surprised joe biden won in a state he has been nigh-guaranteed to win since he announced he was running

I'd love to abolish the electoral college. But no Republican state will sign onto the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. The ridiculous Senate, where by 2040 a third of Americans will control 70% of the Senate, is worse.

So, we pretend SC matters. We pretend CA matters. Why not stop pretending?

also I see joe biden is following bloomberg's strategy of attempting to make memes (sorry if this has been posted)

post south carolina update: joementum has intensified https://t.co/j5NejeOT9A pic.twitter.com/wVdAcruNci

— Team Joe (Text JOE to 30330) (@TeamJoe) March 1, 2020

does he really want to bring back a term associated with Lieberman?

he wants to repeatedly lower bar in the dingy gym of sisyphus

Not so fast.

Mr. Biden is counting on a win in the South Carolina primary on Saturday to help position him as the leading moderate challenger to Mr. Sanders, after three straight losses shredded Mr. Biden’s status as the onetime front-runner. But even if he succeeds in South Carolina, his lack of resources and thin campaign organization in California and other states that vote next week on Super Tuesday present a daunting challenge to a candidacy already on precarious footing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/us/politics/joe-biden-california-super-tuesday.html

The Narrative is not convinced

Respectable showing for Bernard imo

On the other hand, if voters in Super Tuesday states interpret the SC results as a sign that Biden is the only moderate who can conceivably win, then that may make up for a lack of ground game. On the other other hand, lots of people have already voted.

Everyone expected Biden to win but I think the margin is definitely on the very high end of his projections. Data for progress has been one of the most accurate pollsters so far and they had Biden only winning by 9. I don’t think tonight is reason to panic either though. Bloomberg dropping out would worry me a lot more but I think he holds on at least through Florida

MSNBC panel broadcasting from ... a fucking diner.

how folksy!

"down home"

yall dont do this.

Vote for Biden? Check.

does he really want to bring back a term associated with Lieberman?

Guy was a friend of Strom Thurmond so I think he's fine with it.

I'd be content with a primary system in which only states that were within 5% on the last general had a say. It would be more economic and strategic.

― Save us, Covid19 (Sanpaku), Saturday, February 29, 2020 9:19 PM bookmarkflaglink

that is a ridiculous idea

― mh, Saturday, February 29, 2020 9:20 PM bookmarkflaglink

so, an average Sanpaku take

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Saturday, February 29, 2020 9:23 PM bookmarkflaglink

Can practically hear Harry Caray yelling strike 3.

Dafuq Sanpaku.

You're still not getting the point.

10 states matter. That's wrong.

So how does a national political party call attention to that fact?

Y-y-y-your idea?????

i thought 2 of the last 5 presidential elections won by popular vote losers was a pretty good one?

You haven't explained what purpose "calling attention to that fact" would serve xp

Y-y-y-your idea?????

If only 10 states matter in the general, focus.

I think assuming the swing states that apparently decide elections aren't influenced by other states, or that voter turnout could get messed up in non-swing states through selections in which they had no part, is erroneous

which states mattered in the 1984 presidential election?

Guys, I seriously doubt that Sanpaku intended his post as a white paper report on the best way to fix the current imbalances in the electoral system, so much as an expression of frustration at same. I'd note that the ilxor who has never posted a badly conceived response in regard to an emotionally charged topic should throw the first stone. iow, maybe Ned should weigh in.

are you familiar with Sanpaku's posts? not really dealing in offhand comments afaict

Back and to the left...