Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

Dang, my son is a hardcore Bernie bro, constantly telling me how everyone from Warren on down are horrible people.

I learned it from watching you, dad!

voted on campus last night (1.5 hour wait) and the kids, they are excited about Bernie

it's kind of impressive how things have worked out to make it so unlikely for anyone to give up or endorse another candidate. how I break it down to an extent -

Biden: hasn't lost enough support to be totally dead, good numbers among black voters, will likely win SC, still retains some front-runner loyalty; looks to other candidates like he's doomed
Buttigieg: has the most cult-like energy, did well enough to inspire optimism despite total lack of future wins on the horizon; everyone else hates him and doesn't think he's got a prayer of winning
Klobuchar: seems to have the most dedicated focus on being the last moderate standing, fucking hates Buttigieg and will likely refuse to drop out before he does; hasn't actually won anything or done better than Buttigieg
Bloomberg: has money; everyone fucking hates him
Warren: inspires fervent belief among supporters that she is the best and most qualified candidate; hasn't won anything or significantly expanded her base to make her seem more electable to the moderate crowd
Steyer: has money; "yes let's endorse the 'Back That Vote Up' guy"

This will probably end up looking dumb in a few days when all of a sudden its a Sanders vs Bloomberg race or some bullshit but I really don't know how this thing gets whittled down until everyone's money is spent.

your son, has he been watching the west wing?

No but he skims The Economist, my idea was that it would give him more news about places outside the US than the newspaper does (and it really does) but it also has a take on US politics which is, well, a little foreign

My pre-teen daughter is ride or die Warren, my wife is undecided, also thinks a woman can't win, might vote for Warren anyway. My mom, in her 70s, thinks Biden is a good man unfairly maligned. My dad I actually have no idea but I can easily see him voting Sanders, even when I was a kid he was always telling me about big companies and "that's how they get you" and I think he's gotten a little more that way over the years.

JoeStork, I also don't see people dropping out until the money gets spent but it could be spent pretty soon, right? I can easily see Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out after Super Tuesday unless they do much better than expected (which they might!)

My son (8th grade, who has little to no interest in politics in general; oh, his humanities teacher the scourge of the right-wing, Yvette Felarca, the one who punched the white supremacists in Sacramento a few years back) told me he got into an argument with another student in class because he and another student told a girl that Bloomberg was no better than Trump (this was a day after him listening to NPR in the morning and exclaiming, of his own accord, 'he's the democrat Trump!') and chanted 'Bernie! Bernie!" at her. Her whole family is going for Bloomberg. I assume because they are rich (I know them, they are).

Anyway I think I decided I'm going to vote for Warren. And the only reason is because Sanders is going to win California handily, but she is neck and neck with Biden here, and I'd rather progressives take 1st and 2nd place.

wot if Biden surges to win California by ONE VOTE and it's all because of you

I learned it from watching you, dad!

Lol, he 100% did not learn it from me.

"that's how they get you" is worth remembering

'That's how they get you' dads are the swing voters between socialism and the Libertarian Party

biden and warren both poll so far behind sanders in CA I'm not worried about either of them beating him.

*pounds scotch using same hand im carrying a lit cigarette with* ITS NOT ABOUT WINNIN THE STATE ITS ABOUT WINNIN THE DELEGATES KID

for what it's worth, warren has very pointedly declined a lot of opportunities to go hard against sanders (the first bloomberg debate is a good example, toward the beginning during the part about the stupid twitter shit, the moderator gave her a complete softball question, which she ducked)

Yeah. and when she did (over the 'woman can't beat Trump' comment) the backlash was strong.

xxp

I don’t know where ex-Bloomberg votes go, but they don’t go to Sanders

― But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Friday, February 28, 2020 7:16 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

I assume a lot of the ex-bloomberg votes overlap with "vote blue no matter who"

xp again -- exactly, and even that was, on the scale of attacks on sanders, not exactly nuclear

<s>it's almost like they have similar platforms and goals</s>

"that's how they get you" is worth remembering

Oh I tell this to my kids all the time, often prefaced by "As Grandpa says" for extra gravitas

I don’t know where ex-Bloomberg votes go, but they don’t go to Sanders

Per a recent national poll

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/fairvote/pages/19783/attachments/original/1582902303/SecondChoiceTable.png

Bloomberg voters have as their second choice 44% Biden, 25% Sanders, 16% Buttigieg, below 10% for anyone else. So Bloomberg voters are roughly as into Sanders as the whole primary electorate! They're just waaaaaay more committed to picking a white guy and especially an old white guy.

bloomberg supporters: significantly more likely to support bernie than steyer voters

(the real interesting one is that 38% under biden supporters, given the chance biden implodes)

xp weird! Well, shows what I know

What "recent national poll" is that from?

(Not that I don't believe it -- just want some context!)

Steyer supporters don't care which billionaire they vote for, by god they just want a billionaire

ABC news just called SC for Biden the minute polls closed

What "recent national poll" is that from?

― jaymc, Saturday, February 29, 2020 5:25 PM (thirty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Oh sorry should have linked:

https://www.fairvote.org/democratic_primary_2020_poll_feb_28#second_choice_table_feb28

looks like its gonna be p good for biden, ~25% MOV

rip bernie sanders

this is kinda great

The Biden campaign is selling a mug that transitions from "Malarkey!" to "No Malarkey!" when you fill it with coffee. pic.twitter.com/FTMDavKmLw

— Aaron Sankin (@ASankin) March 1, 2020

Ideologically confounding tho

Anyway too bad Bernie Sanders lost the election

The amount of malarkey is inversely proportional to the amount of Joe

xp

upsetting how much i'd treasure that mug were it not connected to the joe biden campaign

at least we know the Biden campaign can make some real money now

A lot of Bernie folks handwaved away his lack of support in the black community even after 2016, wonder if those chickens are coming home to roost.

lol CNN just fucked up Buttigieg's vote total for two minutes and had him at second place

A lot of Bernie folks handwaved away his lack of support in the black community even after 2016, wonder if those chickens are coming home to roost.

per the 538 liveblog
"Part of the reason Joe Biden is doing well tonight? Voters under the age of 45 made up a grand total of 29 percent of voters, according to preliminary exit polls."

Yeah, dem voters in SC are ancient and moderate. I think the story here is that the mods and undecideds finally coalesced around one guy. I'm unironically worried, but that's what I do I guess

In the primaries to date, no indication Sanders can increase youth vote by the +30% needed for him to win in the general.

Broockman & Kalla, 2020. Candidate Ideology and Vote Choice in the 2020 US Presidential Election.

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QbfMNzynTWUEkhTf1GZoWaGf7dU=/0x0:2400x1650/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2400x1650):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19745066/youth_turnout.png

I could live with Biden-Warren 2020. If not, AOC-somebody 2024.

Cool

SC IS A RED STATE

SC IS A RED STATE

So is Iowa.

Looks like Bernie’s still got the same problems he’s always had, in terms of voters

Can’t deliver bigger youth turnout, can’t crack the black vote, alienates older/more moderate Dems

eh, biden put a lot of eggs in this basket.

Biden, however, also has the same problems he always had, and is probably gonna get creamed on Tuesday

sanders is definitely well behind biden with Black voters over 30, and that gives biden a huge advantage in deep south states during the primary. but the gap b/w biden and sanders in NV was 10%, and sanders has done a much better job in 2020 of courting latinx voters which will make a big difference in tx and ca on tuesday.