Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

most probly have one thought in common: "they all lie"

I'm not really seeing detailed credible plans for getting legislation through Congress from any candidate. The 'moderate' proposal on health care (from Biden and Buttigieg at the least) is a public option: how is this going to get through Congress more easily? Will Sanders supporters be disappointed if this is 'all' he gets through?

I think the first, most credible plan is 'get the GOP out of Congress'.

which will probably be harder with Bernie at the top of the ticket, but whadayagonnado

who would be better at the top of the ticket? don't say one of the other candidates in the primary because they don't seem to be very popular

I mean if we keep doing this see-sawing 'two years of a majority before the GOP comes marching back to show their ass' shit we're probably never going to see much in the way of transformative legislation passed again in our lifetimes.

f. hazel one don't capitalize names of languages in Spanish

I'm half English, so I half capitalize

No it’ll be easier because young and progressive voters will have higher turnout and may vote down the ticket

See how easy it is to just say random stuff supporting your position as if you’re Gene Ray, cubic and earth’s wisest human?

I mean if we keep doing this see-sawing 'two years of a majority before the GOP comes marching back to show their ass' shit we're probably never going to see much in the way of transformative legislation passed again in our lifetimes.

the first two years of an administration have been the sweet spot for major legislation gets passed since, what... the 30s? earlier?

who would be better at the top of the ticket? don't say one of the other candidates in the primary because they don't seem to be very popular

it's clear there is no unity candidate.

counting on younger/new voters to drive turnout has, historically, never worked.

look it doesn't even matter if we did pass major legislation because the supreme court is going to just start declaring all federal statute unconstitutional any day now

lots of historical precedent getting chucked out the window of late xp

lots of historical precedent getting chucked out the window of late

not when it comes to voter turnout or passage of legislation

xpost treeship, yeah i get that bernie's ride or die supporters don't give a shit about the things that I was talking about and chalk it up to, like, him being Sir Stedfast. Which is why I said I personally see it as him being evasive and a bad communicator and totally willing to barter with things that fall outside the main bullets on his powerpoint or else he just can't speak about them well on the fly. Which is why he also has all those ffs bernie moments when dealing with race.

Legislatively:
Trump's first two years = Obamacare repeal (narrowly failed), huge tax cuts (passed)
Trump's last two years = nothing

Obama = ARRA, Obamacare, both in first two years. After that, not much.

as I’ve said I was leaning Warren until she decided to adopt a tack on healthcare that wasn’t saying “medicare for all” as much as possible, that’s all I want the next president to do is say those words on TV as much as possible, that and abolish ICE.

I found your candidate

Witnesses said a bus driver told an ICE agent to “gargle [his] balls” when the latter requested to enter the bus https://t.co/N1QnEuBLXk

— corpse (@thefurrow) February 22, 2020

Do u have a link for donations

Super Tuesday? Prediction time? The Sanders part is easy. He'll show strong almost everywhere, either in first or second place, consistently getting above 25% of the vote. Warren will hold steady around 6-8%.

What's hard to predict is how the soft support for all the self-identified moderates (Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Bloomberg) will be distributed. I think the results will look similar to how the Republican right wing scattered votes all over the place in 2012.

Shooting from the hip, I'll predict Biden and Bloomberg will come out clearly ahead of Klobuchar and Buttigeig, but in aggregate, all of them will look weak compared to Sanders. Biden will get a brief boost as the guy standing in second place, slightly ahead of the rest, but he's such a poor campaigner that he'll squander that fairly quickly and fade again. Bloomberg will get pummeled and fade next. By the time Pete or Amy get their turn as the Great Hope, the delegate count will preclude their gaining much traction.

The media will continue to do all it can to dampen any bandwagon effect for Sanders, painting him as a "firebrand" and inherently dangerous to the American Way of Life we've all enjoyed so much of late (yeah, right). The best the moderates can hope for is to deny Bernie on the first ballot, bring in the super delegates, and cut deals like crazy.

not when it comes to voter turnout or passage of legislation

didn't O boost youth turnout like 12 years ago

counting on younger/new voters to drive turnout has, historically, never worked.

If you exclude 2008, the closest thing we've had to a landslide in this millennium?

If Hillary had minority or youth numbers equal to 2012 Obama (much less 2008), we wouldn't have been talking about Donald Trump since November 2016.

Well, we might have been talking about his hilarious attempt to establish a media network in competition with Fox News.

I don't think those specific voters (young/new voters to be clear) delivered Obama the margin of victory, but yes he had the highest turnout of those groups in years.

Obama didn't have significant chunks of the Dem coalition against him or willing to sit out the election in the general

xps

I submit that most of those currently whinging will be too chickenshit to actually sit it out

also, remember PUMAs?

The last thing you ever want to do is dare an American to do nothing.

lol

can we name the March politics thread "gargle my balls".

Obama didn't have significant chunks of the Dem coalition against him or willing to sit out the election in the general

xps

― Οὖτις, Monday, February 24, 2020 1:35 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is not true, the 2008 primary was nasty as hell and a lot of hillary supporters sat out/voted for mccain.

here's a fun article from march 2008: https://news.gallup.com/poll/105691/mccain-vs-obama-28-clinton-backers-mccain.aspx

"a lot" yeah ok

if the argument is that Bernie's coalition is going to be as big as (or bigger than) Obama's, I don't think that's being borne out in polls or primary votes. I think the opposition to Bernie from within the party is of a different kind and scale than that faced by Obama.

otoh they weren't as galvanized against a foe they absolutely could not abide.

If they prefer Trump to Sanders that’s their right

According to exit polls on Election Day, 10% of those who identified themselves as Democrats voted for John McCain, approximately the same percentage of Democratic votes that George W. Bush won in 2004

from here: https://web.archive.org/web/20110509200438/http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1023/exit-poll-analysis-2008

Are we expecting 10% of democrat identifiers to go for trump in 2020?

If the #resistance #basta crew doesn’t care to vote for Bernie Sanders in the general I wonder what they were resisting exactly

If Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee, will you vote for him in November? could be a relevant poll on here

or we could, y'know, just ask it here

yes. yes i will.

i can't imagine someone here (who is eligible) not.

was the bus driver who said "Gargle my balls" to the ICE agent cute?

If you consider voting for Trump, you were never a Democrat and are in fact a ball-gargling aasshole.

Some dixiecrats who haven't changed affiliation yet?

even if they're still registered or affiliated as democrats, they likely wouldn't "identify" as a democrat if asked by a pollster

Mike Bloomberg poked fun last year at a father and son who died from heroin overdoses at the same Brooklyn party, calling them “not a good family" to laughs from a crowd of business executives, the Daily News has learned.https://t.co/fNWESr4x14

— New York Daily News (@NYDailyNews) February 24, 2020

bring in the super delegates, and cut deals like crazy.

ie prepare to raise money off Orange Dipshit for another term

counting on a raving dumbass who never held office to win had, historically, never worked until 2016

if the argument is that Bernie's coalition is going to be as big as (or bigger than) Obama's, I don't think that's being borne out in polls or primary votes. I think the opposition to Bernie from within the party is of a different kind and scale than that faced by Obama.

The argument is that people spending time worrying about whether Sanders can win should support him like they would any other Dem nominee, not that Sanders supporters need to somehow rethink their support.

When do candidates usually name their running mates? That choice could mitigate a lot of concerns over Sanders. Even if everything about him was as mainstream Dem as it gets, he's still a 78-year old who had a heart attack only a few months ago, and has been cagey with his health records. Given that he would be pushing 90 at the end of a second term, there's probably a good chance his VP could get called up from the bench. Or spend a lot of term one establishing presidential bona fides and run in his place in 2024.

lol @Har Mar Klobuchar. Har Mar is even from Minnesota.