Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

it's kinda funny, given that he got in to stop Bernie, Bloomberg being on the ballot is probably the best thing that could have happened, both stirring up further anti-billionaire sentiment and muddying the waters and further splitting the centrist vote, shaving votes off Biden, Pete or Klobs

Y'know, I get that the ostensible purpose behind the sudden wailing and gnashing of teeth is to make Bernie look like a bad idea but ultimately I think it's just going to strengthen perception of him as a legitimate threat to Trump.

alfred, any thoughts on the florida primary? seems like the one in which biden or bloomberg has the best chance of winning, if they're going to win any.

Bloomberg may still be a factor, but I think his impact is going to be more muted than people were fearing last week. That's a big reason why I could see Biden surprising.

xp to above, not a response to the FL question

I'd imagine so. Sanders' remarks about Fidel y Cuba have stirred up the more panic-prone SoFla pollsters.

xpost

I know this has been covered a lot already but there really are a lot of parallels with the GOP 2016 primary and the Dem 2020 primary. With Bernie and Trump there's a "tells it like it is" quality to both (obviously Trump is a pathological liar, but the way he frames things and the way he talks works comes off as being *real* to a certain portion of the population). Both are threats to party orthodoxies and structures. Both are funded in novel ways that break with established practice. Both are adversarial with the media. etc etc

xps

xpost

Yeah, you kinda wonder if the media's inability to stop droning on about what a disaster unelectable Sanders is will have the same effect it did for Trump... Sanders will end up dominating the election coverage, but the warnings will not resonate with viewers, the disdain will.

Idk, Trump supporters know he lies and they don’t give a fuck. His appeal is more the petty authoritarian being able to say whatever he likes to whoever he likes.

yes, absolutely.

I think where their appeals are parallel is that *because* they are so far outside of the calculated way most politicians speak/present themselves, their styles resonate with audiences as being authentic.

I think Sanders could find a base that knows his policy proposals are nearly impossible to implement and don't give a fuck

f. hazel one don't capitalize names of languages in Spanish

nor demonyms fwiw

I mean I don't thing anyone is that naive to think he'll easily pass M4A, but it's more the frustration with the Dems usual "This will be hard so let's not even try" or "this time the GOP will be reasonable so let's start bargaining with a bullshit center right bill that Reagan would have signed but McConnell will treat as if it was created by Joseph Stalin himself"

sanders seems to be the only democratic candidate that any significant amount of people are enthusiastic about (this may be proven wrong in the rest of this primary). his GOTV efforts seem to be going very well (because his supporters - "cult" in the centrist parlance - are very enthusiastic). trump's people aren't going to stay home in november. his approval ratings are the best they've been in years. economy is ticking along. sanders appears to be the best hope of beating him at this stage.

in the sense that we need a candidate with a dedicated army of followers, yep

most (?) of the electorate knows that campaign rhetoric is at best an indication of the candidate's priorities. that's all.

lol ok

can you think of an exception in the presidency in the last 50 years? esp a Democrat?

I think most of the electorate is insanely ignorant about how gov't works in general and doesn't really care about or understand policy, they just know whether or not they like what they hear on tv/the internet

so maybe we agree! idk

most probly have one thought in common: "they all lie"

I'm not really seeing detailed credible plans for getting legislation through Congress from any candidate. The 'moderate' proposal on health care (from Biden and Buttigieg at the least) is a public option: how is this going to get through Congress more easily? Will Sanders supporters be disappointed if this is 'all' he gets through?

I think the first, most credible plan is 'get the GOP out of Congress'.

which will probably be harder with Bernie at the top of the ticket, but whadayagonnado

who would be better at the top of the ticket? don't say one of the other candidates in the primary because they don't seem to be very popular

I mean if we keep doing this see-sawing 'two years of a majority before the GOP comes marching back to show their ass' shit we're probably never going to see much in the way of transformative legislation passed again in our lifetimes.

f. hazel one don't capitalize names of languages in Spanish

I'm half English, so I half capitalize

No it’ll be easier because young and progressive voters will have higher turnout and may vote down the ticket

See how easy it is to just say random stuff supporting your position as if you’re Gene Ray, cubic and earth’s wisest human?

I mean if we keep doing this see-sawing 'two years of a majority before the GOP comes marching back to show their ass' shit we're probably never going to see much in the way of transformative legislation passed again in our lifetimes.

the first two years of an administration have been the sweet spot for major legislation gets passed since, what... the 30s? earlier?

who would be better at the top of the ticket? don't say one of the other candidates in the primary because they don't seem to be very popular

it's clear there is no unity candidate.

counting on younger/new voters to drive turnout has, historically, never worked.

look it doesn't even matter if we did pass major legislation because the supreme court is going to just start declaring all federal statute unconstitutional any day now

lots of historical precedent getting chucked out the window of late xp

lots of historical precedent getting chucked out the window of late

not when it comes to voter turnout or passage of legislation

xpost treeship, yeah i get that bernie's ride or die supporters don't give a shit about the things that I was talking about and chalk it up to, like, him being Sir Stedfast. Which is why I said I personally see it as him being evasive and a bad communicator and totally willing to barter with things that fall outside the main bullets on his powerpoint or else he just can't speak about them well on the fly. Which is why he also has all those ffs bernie moments when dealing with race.

Legislatively:
Trump's first two years = Obamacare repeal (narrowly failed), huge tax cuts (passed)
Trump's last two years = nothing

Obama = ARRA, Obamacare, both in first two years. After that, not much.

as I’ve said I was leaning Warren until she decided to adopt a tack on healthcare that wasn’t saying “medicare for all” as much as possible, that’s all I want the next president to do is say those words on TV as much as possible, that and abolish ICE.

I found your candidate

Witnesses said a bus driver told an ICE agent to “gargle [his] balls” when the latter requested to enter the bus https://t.co/N1QnEuBLXk

— corpse (@thefurrow) February 22, 2020

Do u have a link for donations

Super Tuesday? Prediction time? The Sanders part is easy. He'll show strong almost everywhere, either in first or second place, consistently getting above 25% of the vote. Warren will hold steady around 6-8%.

What's hard to predict is how the soft support for all the self-identified moderates (Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Bloomberg) will be distributed. I think the results will look similar to how the Republican right wing scattered votes all over the place in 2012.

Shooting from the hip, I'll predict Biden and Bloomberg will come out clearly ahead of Klobuchar and Buttigeig, but in aggregate, all of them will look weak compared to Sanders. Biden will get a brief boost as the guy standing in second place, slightly ahead of the rest, but he's such a poor campaigner that he'll squander that fairly quickly and fade again. Bloomberg will get pummeled and fade next. By the time Pete or Amy get their turn as the Great Hope, the delegate count will preclude their gaining much traction.

The media will continue to do all it can to dampen any bandwagon effect for Sanders, painting him as a "firebrand" and inherently dangerous to the American Way of Life we've all enjoyed so much of late (yeah, right). The best the moderates can hope for is to deny Bernie on the first ballot, bring in the super delegates, and cut deals like crazy.

not when it comes to voter turnout or passage of legislation

didn't O boost youth turnout like 12 years ago

counting on younger/new voters to drive turnout has, historically, never worked.

If you exclude 2008, the closest thing we've had to a landslide in this millennium?

If Hillary had minority or youth numbers equal to 2012 Obama (much less 2008), we wouldn't have been talking about Donald Trump since November 2016.

Well, we might have been talking about his hilarious attempt to establish a media network in competition with Fox News.

I don't think those specific voters (young/new voters to be clear) delivered Obama the margin of victory, but yes he had the highest turnout of those groups in years.

Obama didn't have significant chunks of the Dem coalition against him or willing to sit out the election in the general

xps

I submit that most of those currently whinging will be too chickenshit to actually sit it out

also, remember PUMAs?

The last thing you ever want to do is dare an American to do nothing.

lol

can we name the March politics thread "gargle my balls".

Obama didn't have significant chunks of the Dem coalition against him or willing to sit out the election in the general

xps

― Οὖτις, Monday, February 24, 2020 1:35 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is not true, the 2008 primary was nasty as hell and a lot of hillary supporters sat out/voted for mccain.