Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

the "insight" people demand does involve being right IMO. but the problem here is not that the she was wrong. people are wrong about the future. it's the facile and simplistic pattern matching on "youth vote". this is cillizza-level stuff.

This says a lot:

Tied with post-graduate degrees https://t.co/itrRaxjnj2

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 23, 2020

I mean tbf, there is also a subset of Bernie supporters who should probably hear the message "twitter is not real life" a little more often.

J Rubin is reliably the worst even by WaPo standards

Can i just say tonight was amazing? And seeing chris matthews melt down. I mean just yikes

the "insight" people demand does involve being right IMO.

But in demanding correct prognostications people are simply asking that their delusions be fed, which is a more correct job description for what pundits are doing when they satisfy such demands. It is rare that anyone ever goes back and dredges up those self-assured but wildly inaccurate statements, because everyone knows that nobody cares long after the true facts are known and there is no penalty for inaccuracy.

This says a lot:

🐦[Tied with post-graduate degrees https://t.co/itrRaxjnj2🕸
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 23, 2020🕸]🐦

be the change you want to see in the world xp

xp: It's a rough day for people (like myself) who think Bernie's rhetoric, and the forthcoming oppo shittorrent, will mean a Trump reelection, loss of the judiciary for decades, and death of more of our great-grandchildren. I hope I'm wrong, but I expect to shift my donations/volunteering to senate races, we'll need a majority either way.

Another good sign since you’re wrong about nearly everything...

just to prove punditry doesn't have to be this way (i can't tell if you're saying this aimless, or just saying "eh, who cares"): stephen bush is a pundit in the UK. he's a legit pundit as you understand it in the US, i.e. just churning out words, no different to rubin or cillizza. he's not someone explicitly claiming to make predictions like nate silver. and yet! he does this every year https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/12/what-i-got-right-and-wrong-2019.

I hope I'm wrong, but I expect to shift my donations/volunteering to senate races

it sounds like you don't actually hope you're wrong?

xps - don't dissuade him from donating to senate races. it's an excellent idea and Bernie is not hurting for money.

senate races will help Bernie anyway, so I'm fine with that as a compromise for someone who really doesn't like Bernie.

Senate races, because in the event Buttigieg, Warren or Klobuchar get the nom, they'll need +6 to get anything substantial through, in the event Sanders gets the norm, we may be down on the 47 seats we have.

All the oppo is out already and none of it is working the way pundits seem to think it will. Bernie is going to run extremely well against trump and i have no idea why people don’t get this.

yeah the best thing is watching the pundit class and the centrists frothing at the mouth, this ain't 1972 baby

from the other Bernie thread:

it's hilarious I think more than anything it's dumbasses like Matthews and Carville realizing no one gives a fuck what they think outside of their little bubble of a cable news station that gets worse ratings than Friends reruns

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Saturday, February 22, 2020 3:25 PM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

thats why theyre so mad. they know their time is almost up.

― majority whip, majority nae nae (m bison), Saturday, February 22, 2020 3:27 PM (five hours ago)

I live and deal with the sort of stupid fucks that voted for Obama, and then voted for Trump. The oppo isn't all out, and certainly not all well publicized. Mud works.

xps to caek -- yup, here and there a political columnist/pundit will go back and keep score, with mea culpas for the wrong turns, but this is not important in the long run. any pundit who can wring plausible conclusions from available data will live or die on keeping people's attention in the present, and that depends far more on the interests of the moment than upon how many past opinions proved wrong. Now, if Stephen Bush vowed to voluntarily quit punditry if he falls below some self-imposed standard of accuracy, I'd be more impressed.

xp: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

this is not important in the long run.

hard disagree. these people have been fairly effective kingmakers, at least on the democratic side, for 30 years. they don't understand how the world works, and the democrats have paid the price.

well, the democrats haven't paid the price, but we have. you know what i mean.

On this morning’s kerfuffle:

For those upset about critique of establishment politics:

There are D reps in SAFE blue seats who side w/ the NRA, are anti-LGBT+, and yet are protected because they advance the interests of big donors, Wall St, fossil fuels, etc.

It’s not “wrong” to take that on and do better. https://t.co/0Frl0vPlap

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) February 23, 2020

I live and deal with the sort of stupid fucks that voted for Obama, and then voted for Trump. The oppo isn't all out, and certainly not all well publicized. Mud works.

― tetragrammaton in vain (Sanpaku), Sunday, February 23, 2020 12:11 AM (fifteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

There's no question that the oppo is going to get a lot more signal boost come the general, but otoh I think a lot of the same kind of "radical communist" stuff that will get trotted out against him also failed against Obama. The GOP is a bit of a boy who cried wolf on this stuff, and also some of the extreme claims can wind up coming off hokey/campy/only effective as red meat for the base. That said, who knows. It's sort of an unprecedented election. But it's hard to imagine worse oppo than the oppo on Trump and none of that stopped him.

also, if sanders' opponents/the democratic party/the GOP/whomever are intent on ratfucking bernie, one would think between 2015 and now the oppo would have merged. this isn't an rpg, they're not saving their final attack until the end

s/emerged

This has been there pretty much all along... https://t.co/AhVwF7K86Q

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) February 23, 2020

seriously

From the entrance poll, among the 34% of NV Dem caucus participants who call themselves moderate or conservative:

Sanders 23%
Biden 22%
Buttigieg 20%
Klobuchar 14%
Steyer 10%

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) February 22, 2020

FWIW, the Kornacki tweet where he imagined the scenario of voters falling in line behind Sanders is from April 2019.

xp man alive:

The "undecided" voters I know are in their 60s/50s and late 40s and looking at their retirement accounts. They're my stepmother's church ladies. They're looking for excuses to vote for the status quo, the sort of people that "whataboutism" is effective with. They're going to see stories about a guy who didn't have a steady job till his late 30s, who stole electricity from neighbors, who had an out of wedlock son, who attended rallies where Nicaraguans chanted "Death to Yankiee", and for them that will cancel out Trump's sexism/racism/ties to the Russian mob/ignorance of law or Constitution/dismantling of the rules based international order. None of that matters to them, so long as they're still personally doing okay. They vote for personalities, not policy. When RW media pushes outrage at trangender athletes participating in HS athletics, they pay attention, ignoring the climate crisis, or the plutocracy crisis.

We should be better than this, but thanks to partisan news/social media, there's not a lot of critical thinking going on. Maybe young people will for once in several lifetimes actually bother registering to vote. Maybe Sander's will do that. But I want the Sanders peeps to take the oppo seriously, get out in front of it, and figure out how to counter it in the eyes of the dumbfucks who gave the 2016 election to Trump.

Why do you know those people

some people speak to their families

Idk my parents are cool what’s wrong w your parents

My aunt’s grouchy I don’t call but she won’t visit bc she’s too neurotic to use a dogsitter

You could always tell them to vote for Bernie yknow. When you aren’t spraying them in Purell

also, if sanders' opponents/the democratic party/the GOP/whomever are intent on ratfucking bernie, one would think between 2015 and now the oppo would have merged. this isn't an rpg, they're not saving their final attack until the end

you don't need an oppo dump, sanders has policy positions that can't be exploited by his opponents in a democratic primary (where the positions are actually pretty popular) and can be exploited in the general (where they aren't.) we're handing the gop a simple and seemingly reasonable case to make to swing voters in wisconsin: the other guy's a scary radical.

if this were a normal election and we were up against a pre-trump republican with a strong economy, the election would be over right now. the only reason why we still have a shot with a weak candidate is because donald trump is so deeply bad and unpopular.

If they’re so weak-minded surely they’re liable to persuasion by Sanpaku earths greatest brain genius xp

A great time to run someone who might not win otherwise!!

We’re all dead anyway, this is garbage time, let’s have fun with it

xp: Yesterday, I just spent the better part of 30 minutes discussing transgender HS athletes with my 58 year old sister. This sort of shit isn't in my newsfeeds, but its the sort of thing that the RW media has gotten very good at pushing before old-people eyeballs. Push the "disgust" button or the "Soviet communism" button, and they're off into their own world...

We watched Chernobyl. For me, its a very clear allegory about lies, ignoring science, and the climate crisis. For her, it was just a tale of how bad communism was.

I think that's one of the most reasonable arguments you can make for sanders as a candidate, if your whole goal is just to sneak someone like him in and see wtf happens, this might be one of the best shots at doing it. (if your goal is to actually have someone achieve meaningful left-wing policy wins, this def isn't the best time.)

xp

“If not now, when?” said Rabbi Hillel

the best time is 2032

the sweet spot, 2032

everybody just hang back, lie low, til '32

wait

make that 2036

It's so ridiculous to hear about the deadly oppo coming for Sanders when there is no easier target in the world than Trump. This is not a one sided election. Sanders should have no problem humiliating and diminishing Trump at every turn.

Can i just say tonight was amazing? And seeing chris matthews melt down

How many meltdowns is that? Isn't he just one big albino puddle by now?

everybody just hang back, lie low, til '32

well we're all going to still be on ilxor.com when nothing meaningful happens in the next 4 years so we can bump this thread and laugh at how cute it was that some people were hopeful for one fine moment despite everyone but morbs having pretty solid knowledge of how a bill gets passed in congress.

that's why i bumped it back to '36