Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

My unscientific analysis is that Warren's performance likely had the most impact, of anyone on that stage, on voters who hadn't already made up their minds about one candidate or another. Like Bernie stayed the course but I can't imagine his debate performance bringing a whole lot of new people to the table.

"you need a different apology!"

How any of that translates into actual votes remains to be seen, I guess. As long as Bloomberg eating shit last night translates into Bloomberg eating shit at the polls, I'm happy.

otm

I would hazard a guess that no one’s poll numbers are going to move that much from this debate.

otm

Also, one of the criticisms I've seen of Warren's performance was her tendency to defend Klobuchar, but I don't personally see that as a bad thing. On the one hand, it underscores her decency that she would defend someone she's competing against for the nomination. And on the other hand, although I doubt it was intentional, it's a neat little bit of psychological jiu jitsu to put Klobuchar in the position where she's someone who needs defending or protecting...which is maybe NAGL for a presidential candidate who's trying to appear strong and decisive and all that other shit presidential candidates are supposed to project.

Bloomberg is definitely going to take a hit in the polls, debate performances this cycle have been reflected in polls pretty clearly

Harris rising and then tanking, Biden tanking etc.

heres's a cowardly prediction: i think they will negatively affect bloomberg's numbers, but in a way that is invisible.

gonna just let that thought linger like a dog fart under the bedspread.

*deep breath*

...the reason is that without his murder last night by warren, i think his national poll numbers would continue going up a bit as he continues to spend on ads, and americans continue to be swayed by moving images with sound. but his murder will likely offset that, i think, leaving him around the same or slightly lower. how do i know all this? i spend a lot of time sleeping with my head under the bedspread

xp

xposts Yeah, I know, no one watches this shit. But still. It's nice to think that people are making decisions about their candidate of choice on the basis of hearing them speak somewhat extemporaneously rather than, y'know, self-celebratory ads popping up during every commercial break.

Those of y'all who are FB friends with me should glance at an argument yesterday evening with a #Berniebro FB friend whom I'd never spoken to: a white dude at his myopic worst shouting at a woman, unwilling to yield a point. He is, fortunately, in the minority.

Re the horse race: a Warren rise wouldn't surprise me but it would shock me if Bloomberg drops, thanks to his ubiquitous ads.

once again, it's time to play: how uninformed is the american public!? today's entry, michael bloomberg! michael bloomberg is a THREE-time mayor who is clearly terrible and hated! he's staked his campaign on the idea that he's a tough guy who can take down trump, but clearly he can't effectively respond to criticism of any kind, probably because he can't accept the idea that the kind of sexist bullshit he and his rich pals considered to be a joek 20-60 years ago is now a career-ender - sometimes even for wealthy people! times have changed, but bloomberg hasn't, except he's gotten even wealthier! but also he runs ads!

WHAT. WILL. THE. AMERICAN. PUBLIC. DO!?!?!?

find out whenever michael bloomberg is on a ballot! COMING UP

not all americans are dumb. if you read this message you are not dumb. this message not endorsed by michael bloomberg side effects include severe nausea, forgetfulness, and shin splints. some restrictions may apply. this message may not be disseminated without the express written consent of major league baseball.

I really don't think Bloomberg has a constituency outside of people who hate Trump, don't follow politics, and only know him as a dude willing to spend a lot of money. these are people who I would guess are very willing to move to whatever candidate they think has the best shot. even if they didn't see the debate most of the headlines are about him getting his ass handed to him and I'd be surprised if he wasn't about to take a substantial dive

I really don't think Bloomberg has a constituency outside of people...

let's see...

who hate Trump

ok that's about 200M people

don't follow politics

that's another 200M, not the same people thought

and only know him as a dude willing to spend a lot of money.

that's pretty much everyone outside of NYC

carry the 5, divide by 15, yes. that's about 20% of the democratic electorate

why do people keep saying "no one watches these"

The broadcast of the 2020 Democratic primary debate in Las Vegas on Wednesday drew nearly 20 million viewers across NBC and MSNBC, making it the most-watched Democratic debate in television history, the network said.

and then after that there's all the fucking memes and tweets and FB posts... this stuff has a pretty broad reach

I really don't think Bloomberg has a constituency outside of people who hate Trump, don't follow politics, and only know him as a dude willing to spend a lot of money

Whether or not he does, this perfectly describes a good friend of mine, with the exception that she *does* follow politics (more active than me, actually), which made her not knowing about why he sucks so bad even more alarming.

there's a long history on ilx of everyone making fun of the handful of people who watch these

xp

and the dominant narrative that came out of last night is "Bloomberg Bombs/Gets Merked"

xps

but yeah, last night's seemed to get much more visibility than the last handful of debates, which is a great thing

People do watch these debates, and of those who don’t , more have their antennas up for “winners & losers” post mortems than usual because of the whole “electability” emphasis, which is augmented even further wrt to candidates whose chief selling shtick is premised on electability rather than policy. Every dip in the polls and poor debate scorecard for a Bloomberg or Biden has a doubly damaging effect.

I genuinely didn't think many people watched these things! I'm glad to see that last night's edition was so well-attended.

For anyone who missed the big show and is now catching up on clips, in addition to the highly-recommended Warren highlight reel I would also highly recommend seeking out a Bloomberg lowlight reel. Spread that shit around. I think my favorite moment, in response to questions about existing NDAs among his employees, was something like, 'maybe someone didn't like a joke I told (audience booooooos)'. It was great, he's a putz.

but yeah, last night's seemed to get much more visibility than the last handful of debates, which is a great thing

It was broadcast on network television, as opposed to some of the other recent ones which were only on cable news channels.

Also, it’s no longer last year and voting has started and there aren’t 24 candidates anymore.

carry the 5, divide by 15, yes. that's about 20% of the democratic electorate

most of whom don't really have a good reason to actually vote for him. if he gets anything close to 20% i'd be stunned.

xp i'm guessing that $67b is like a russian winter, dems. choose strategy well, it could take a long time with a sad end if you don't?

I think there was genuine curiosity about Bloomberg this time, and given how spectacularly he tanked even people who didn't watch are going to be aware of it.

Given my past acumen wrt predicting the outcome of political races, my dismissal of Bloomberg as an obvious fucking clown whose only advantage is the power to shit bags of money means he can look forward to a minimum of three or four terms as our glorious new god-king.

even the people I work with who don't really follow this know Bloomberg sucked last night

The debate, as entertainment, was by far the best I've watched in a decade, including the 2016 debate in which the GOP candidates stood in Reagan's plane.

Mike Bloomberg's presidential campaign website (https://t.co/neNB1A8G9j) displays a periodic popup that states people in certain states are signing up as volunteers. How terrific!

But here’s a secret: that message is falsely generated using some good ol’ JavaScript. pic.twitter.com/QOKXgToL1v

— Arunesh Mathur (@aruneshmathur) February 12, 2020

NEWS: Warren refuses to disavow a superPAC created for her, saying the men in the race either have superPACs or are billionaires— so she and Klobuchar should have them too.

— Annie Linskey (@AnnieLinskey) February 20, 2020

not saying anything specifically except that this is kinda sus

In its upload to YouTube, @NBCNews cut out the part of the debate where the candidates were asked if the popular vote winner in the primary should be the nominee and every single one except Bernie Sanders said 'not necessarily.' https://t.co/PczIIzaoHr

— Walker Bragman (@WalkerBragman) February 20, 2020

A Trump-loving FB friend seems to think Bloomberg won. He posted something about how he loves to see him "firing off on all these socialist crazy clowns".

uh

This sounds like the profile of the type of person who thought Sarah Palin won the VP debate against Biden

Warren is the best at speaking on the fly.

Trump himself, in 'insentient stopped clock' mode, thought that Bloomberg ate shit last night, so

not saying anything specifically except that this is kinda sus

would be even more sus if they aired his views on this subject 4 years ago

I think we can all agree that the real losers last night were the American people

Sund4r, did your Trump-loving FB friend by chance vote for Obama in '08 or '12? And if you pour soy sauce on him, do his nerve endings fire wildly, sending his tentacles into a fit of spasming that might almost suggest the presence of brain activity?

this dehumanizing rhetoric should be offensive to Americans of all stripes, regardless of political party or how many mansions they own

I'm sorry, Pierre. Thank the Mormon god that you're here to maintain civility among the heathens.

Bernie hogging the headlines daily since December
citation needed

― bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), Wednesday, February 19, 2020 1:34 PM

Okay, sure. Maybe things aren't as bad as I imagined, but still... How about: mentions of candidates in article titles at 5 most circulated US newspapers (USA Today, WSJ, NYPost, NY Times, LA Times) and top 3 most visited News websites (foxnews, cnn, huffpo) as of 1:48PM EST, 2/19/20

Trump: 40+
Bloomberg: 35
Sanders: 15
Buttigieg: 6
Warren: 4

Source: me and Ctrl + F

Update:

Mentions of candidates in article titles at 5 most circulated US newspapers (USA Today, WSJ, NYPost, NY Times, LA Times) and top 3 most visited News websites (foxnews, cnn, huffpo) 3:57 PM EST, 2/20/20

Trump: 35
Bloomberg: 29 (32 if we’re counting the nickname ‘Bloom’)
Sanders 20
Buttigieg: IDK
Warren: 8

someone's polishing up their resume!

The campaign manager also said he's “not sure” Bloomberg will beat Sanders on Super Tuesday and that "it may be there’s not much campaign in March after that date."

So, uh, that's where the Bloomberg campaign is at right now! https://t.co/EZ7hAzb823

— Cristina Cabrera (@crismcabrera) February 20, 2020

xp. sanders is the front runner and yet gets way less coverage than bloomberg? is that the point you're making?

I mean they ran a fucking barrel of fish for president and now they're acting surprised some shots landed

xp. no, you ding-dong. the first thing I said was 'Maybe things aren't as bad as I imagined, but still...' which is typically interpreted as a mea culpa.