Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

xp to eephus! 36! and no worries, it's not condescending. i'm not immune to the idea of coming to terms with it, but for now i'm happy to just name it and see it as a thing that happened, rather than physically recoiling whenever the memory comes up

I'm too truthful for this thread

I believe Warren's proposed tax is 2% of the entire worth of people who have more than 50M in accumulated assets, not just a marginal rate on yearly income over $50M.

This can't possibly be right -- it would create a massive cost of nosing above an arbitrary asset threshold.

Its 2% of wealth EXCEEDING 50M. If you have 49 million in your assets: 0 wealth tax. If you have 51 million in assets, $20K.

those poor, unfortunate people with >$50M in assets, my heart goes out to them

The Ultra-Millionaire Tax taxes the wealth of the richest Americans. It applies only to households with a net worth of $50 million or more—roughly the wealthiest 75,000 households, or the top 0.1%. Households would pay an annual 2% tax on every dollar of net worth above $50 million and a 6% tax on every dollar of net worth above $1 billion. Because wealth is so concentrated, this small tax on roughly 75,000 households will bring in $3.75 trillion in revenue over a ten-year period.

OK, so not on entire worth but on net worth that exceeds the threshold. Not yearly income, though. xp yes

Only 70,000 households in America would be affected. Given asset appreciation after inflation is ~6% over long term durations, it would increase their expected wealth doubling time from 12 years to 18 years.

looool

fuckin Biden lol pic.twitter.com/Xvq0gS5lOr

— Screamer Jim (@HeheWaitWhut) February 20, 2020

Article fails to indicate which brand of domestic beer Biden cracked open immediately afterwards.

Non-alcoholic.

https://abovethelaw.com/uploads/2020/02/Wiki-300x609.jpg

lol

I forgot bloomie rammed through a term limit repeal so he could keep lording it up for an extra few years

OK, so not on entire worth but on net worth that exceeds the threshold.

Yep, OK, this is the correct way to set it up and I'm glad that Warren got this right, as I would have expected.

Great highlights

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=280519822926247

kudos to biden for paying such moving tribute to pop smoke on the day of his untimely passing

xp to UMS

i did not watch the debate but i am slapping my fucking desk watching that warren highlight reel. fuck yeah

https://media.giphy.com/media/fZ8ErxPUqB1aJwydxr/giphy.gif

aw that fb link isn't working for me. i wanna see the warren highlight reel!

Not a highlight reel, but

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQruQL4w0iI

My unscientific analysis is that Warren's performance likely had the most impact, of anyone on that stage, on voters who hadn't already made up their minds about one candidate or another. Like Bernie stayed the course but I can't imagine his debate performance bringing a whole lot of new people to the table.

"you need a different apology!"

How any of that translates into actual votes remains to be seen, I guess. As long as Bloomberg eating shit last night translates into Bloomberg eating shit at the polls, I'm happy.

otm

I would hazard a guess that no one’s poll numbers are going to move that much from this debate.

otm

Also, one of the criticisms I've seen of Warren's performance was her tendency to defend Klobuchar, but I don't personally see that as a bad thing. On the one hand, it underscores her decency that she would defend someone she's competing against for the nomination. And on the other hand, although I doubt it was intentional, it's a neat little bit of psychological jiu jitsu to put Klobuchar in the position where she's someone who needs defending or protecting...which is maybe NAGL for a presidential candidate who's trying to appear strong and decisive and all that other shit presidential candidates are supposed to project.

Bloomberg is definitely going to take a hit in the polls, debate performances this cycle have been reflected in polls pretty clearly

Harris rising and then tanking, Biden tanking etc.

heres's a cowardly prediction: i think they will negatively affect bloomberg's numbers, but in a way that is invisible.

gonna just let that thought linger like a dog fart under the bedspread.

*deep breath*

...the reason is that without his murder last night by warren, i think his national poll numbers would continue going up a bit as he continues to spend on ads, and americans continue to be swayed by moving images with sound. but his murder will likely offset that, i think, leaving him around the same or slightly lower. how do i know all this? i spend a lot of time sleeping with my head under the bedspread

xp

xposts Yeah, I know, no one watches this shit. But still. It's nice to think that people are making decisions about their candidate of choice on the basis of hearing them speak somewhat extemporaneously rather than, y'know, self-celebratory ads popping up during every commercial break.

Those of y'all who are FB friends with me should glance at an argument yesterday evening with a #Berniebro FB friend whom I'd never spoken to: a white dude at his myopic worst shouting at a woman, unwilling to yield a point. He is, fortunately, in the minority.

Re the horse race: a Warren rise wouldn't surprise me but it would shock me if Bloomberg drops, thanks to his ubiquitous ads.

once again, it's time to play: how uninformed is the american public!? today's entry, michael bloomberg! michael bloomberg is a THREE-time mayor who is clearly terrible and hated! he's staked his campaign on the idea that he's a tough guy who can take down trump, but clearly he can't effectively respond to criticism of any kind, probably because he can't accept the idea that the kind of sexist bullshit he and his rich pals considered to be a joek 20-60 years ago is now a career-ender - sometimes even for wealthy people! times have changed, but bloomberg hasn't, except he's gotten even wealthier! but also he runs ads!

WHAT. WILL. THE. AMERICAN. PUBLIC. DO!?!?!?

find out whenever michael bloomberg is on a ballot! COMING UP

not all americans are dumb. if you read this message you are not dumb. this message not endorsed by michael bloomberg side effects include severe nausea, forgetfulness, and shin splints. some restrictions may apply. this message may not be disseminated without the express written consent of major league baseball.

I really don't think Bloomberg has a constituency outside of people who hate Trump, don't follow politics, and only know him as a dude willing to spend a lot of money. these are people who I would guess are very willing to move to whatever candidate they think has the best shot. even if they didn't see the debate most of the headlines are about him getting his ass handed to him and I'd be surprised if he wasn't about to take a substantial dive

I really don't think Bloomberg has a constituency outside of people...

let's see...

who hate Trump

ok that's about 200M people

don't follow politics

that's another 200M, not the same people thought

and only know him as a dude willing to spend a lot of money.

that's pretty much everyone outside of NYC

carry the 5, divide by 15, yes. that's about 20% of the democratic electorate

why do people keep saying "no one watches these"

The broadcast of the 2020 Democratic primary debate in Las Vegas on Wednesday drew nearly 20 million viewers across NBC and MSNBC, making it the most-watched Democratic debate in television history, the network said.

and then after that there's all the fucking memes and tweets and FB posts... this stuff has a pretty broad reach

I really don't think Bloomberg has a constituency outside of people who hate Trump, don't follow politics, and only know him as a dude willing to spend a lot of money

Whether or not he does, this perfectly describes a good friend of mine, with the exception that she *does* follow politics (more active than me, actually), which made her not knowing about why he sucks so bad even more alarming.

there's a long history on ilx of everyone making fun of the handful of people who watch these

xp

and the dominant narrative that came out of last night is "Bloomberg Bombs/Gets Merked"

xps

but yeah, last night's seemed to get much more visibility than the last handful of debates, which is a great thing

People do watch these debates, and of those who don’t , more have their antennas up for “winners & losers” post mortems than usual because of the whole “electability” emphasis, which is augmented even further wrt to candidates whose chief selling shtick is premised on electability rather than policy. Every dip in the polls and poor debate scorecard for a Bloomberg or Biden has a doubly damaging effect.

I genuinely didn't think many people watched these things! I'm glad to see that last night's edition was so well-attended.

For anyone who missed the big show and is now catching up on clips, in addition to the highly-recommended Warren highlight reel I would also highly recommend seeking out a Bloomberg lowlight reel. Spread that shit around. I think my favorite moment, in response to questions about existing NDAs among his employees, was something like, 'maybe someone didn't like a joke I told (audience booooooos)'. It was great, he's a putz.

but yeah, last night's seemed to get much more visibility than the last handful of debates, which is a great thing

It was broadcast on network television, as opposed to some of the other recent ones which were only on cable news channels.

Also, it’s no longer last year and voting has started and there aren’t 24 candidates anymore.

carry the 5, divide by 15, yes. that's about 20% of the democratic electorate

most of whom don't really have a good reason to actually vote for him. if he gets anything close to 20% i'd be stunned.

xp i'm guessing that $67b is like a russian winter, dems. choose strategy well, it could take a long time with a sad end if you don't?

I think there was genuine curiosity about Bloomberg this time, and given how spectacularly he tanked even people who didn't watch are going to be aware of it.

Given my past acumen wrt predicting the outcome of political races, my dismissal of Bloomberg as an obvious fucking clown whose only advantage is the power to shit bags of money means he can look forward to a minimum of three or four terms as our glorious new god-king.