If Mike Bloomberg is the Democratic nominee, will you vote for him in November?

Butts

he might end up the consensus choice in a brokered convention.

imo, this is probably his best chance, unless lightning strikes several of the remaining candidates. He's pretty clearly hoping to be the leading 'moderate' when the convention rolls around, and Bernie has a low enough delegate count he can leverage Bernie's weakness into his own nomination in a brokered convention.

iow, he's an elderly multi-billionaire playing a long shot, but he can't think of anything else his money could buy him that he'd like better than being president, so he's pushing a mass of chips on the table and letting the wheel spin. after all, what could he lose, besides money he doesn't need for anything that's more important to him?

You don’t have to be concerned about one specific bad scenario, there are actually lots of them. I think the increasing chances of this going to convention are good reason to be pretty pessimistic of our shot in November regardless. I don’t think it matters who actually gets the nomination after a convention, there’s not gonna be party unity behind the winner.

oh for god's sake, "brokered conventions", this isn't even political discussion anymore you fuckers are writing fanfic. if you're going to insist on this sort of crap then i'm going to start posting my bloomberg/biden ship fic in this thread

that would be an improvement

Then Joe, innocently running his sinewy cords of love gently up the side of Mike's calloused neck, coyly asked for $5

I don’t think it matters who actually gets the nomination after a convention, there’s not gonna be party unity behind the winner.

― iatee, Tuesday, February 18, 2020 10:00 PM (fifteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this feels unnecessarily pessimistic to me. i think most dems will be happy to have a candidate to beat trump with.

also if bernie's the nominee, the bros will be in the tent pissing out for a change

oh for god's sake, "brokered conventions", this isn't even political discussion anymore you fuckers are writing fanfic.

Bloomberg's strategy obviously has very little to do with practical presidential politics, as defined by any kind of politics that has succeeded in the past century, yet he is spending hundreds of millions of dollars out of his own pocket pursuing that strategy.

Personally, I have no belief his current strategy will succeed in securing the nomination for himself, but there doesn't seem to me to be any viable path he could pursue to arrive at the convention with the nomination sewn up (other than those lightning strikes I mentioned), so what do you think he's up to, if not playing a long shot for a brokered convention? Or does he have no strategy at all besides spending carloads of money and crossing his fingers for luck?

I don’t think it matters who actually gets the nomination after a convention, there’s not gonna be party unity behind the winner.

― iatee, Tuesday, February 18, 2020 10:00 PM (fifteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this feels unnecessarily pessimistic to me. i think most dems will be happy to have a candidate to beat trump with.

THE BROS!

LOOK OUT OH NOES ITS THE BROS!

i still feel like bloomberg's relative surge in the polls is reflective of the massive ad blitz sans any scrutiny of him or his record. it's probably not sustainable now that there's a target on him. harris (max 15%), buttigieg (max 12%), and to a greater degree warren (max 28%) have all had brief surges in the national polls only to regress back to some mean.

this reminds me some of 2012 as various challengers to romney enjoyed some time as more conservative alternative to willard. romney's support was pretty steady through 2011, but rick perry had some time then he couldnt remember stuff at that debate, then hermain cain had his 9-9-9 thing, then gingrich played some 90s greatest hits, then santorum actually won iowa, and then romney ran with it from march onward (ron paul on bckd vox). it was like the gop kept asking themselves, is this really our best option? and so they tried different outfits on and just said fuck it, navy suit red tie again.

this is kinda what's happening for moderate dems who are trying out these fatally flawed candidates and trying to talk themselves into them. biden was the lorem ipsum placeholder text until people actually voted and now moderate voters are left grasping for someone they think will beat trump/restore america to its pre-2016 operating system.

otm

the bros are not that big a bloc

if sanders doesn’t have majority support by then it means there was a meaningful ceiling to his support, and if anyone else gets it the bros are gonna def be pissing into the tent for the rest of the year
― iatee, Tuesday, February 18, 2020 10:34 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

a ceiling of support that maxes out at plurality doesnt mean that the people voting the 150 other candidates wouldnt vote for bernard over trump. it def looks like 60% of dems wants some brand of moderate! but they cant collectively decide which one and the candidates are not going to voluntarily give up their shot at the presidency in the name of centrist solidarity.

in 2016, rubio+kasich+cruz's combined natl polling numbers continued to outpace trump until May 2016, even when rubio dropped. up to that point, HRC had a double-digit lead on trump in h2h polls. by the end of may when he pulled away with the nomination (with less than majority gop voter support), he had closed that natl polling gap with hrc entirely. i think dems will coalesce the winner of the nomination bc they fear trump's reelection.

anyway how the fuck is bloomberg gonna win as he pisses off every constituent group in the democratic party?

I think tomorrow will be pretty revealing. Sanders and Warren have no reason to hold back and if Bloomie’s first moment on the national stage is a disaster, I think the ‘this dude has no charisma’ narrative is gonna be hard for him to ever break. But if he does well-to-okay, the media is also going to amplify that story.

yeah im actually kinda eager to watch this debate, and i have skipped most of the televised events so far this election

in 2016, rubio+kasich+cruz's combined natl polling numbers continued to outpace trump until May 2016, even when rubio dropped. up to that point, HRC had a double-digit lead on trump in h2h polls. by the end of may when he pulled away with the nomination (with less than majority gop voter support), he had closed that natl polling gap with hrc entirely. i think dems will coalesce the winner of the nomination bc they fear trump's reelection.

anyway how the fuck is bloomberg gonna win as he pisses off every constituent group in the democratic party?

His entire campaign is "have you seen the other guy?!"

i'll concede that, but i dont think we're dealing with PUMAs this time. 08HRC dead-enders were more ideologically comfortable with mccain in a way that moderate dems in 2020 will not be with trump.

i mean throw this analysis out the window if bloomberg runs third party i guess.

xp to iatee

yeah but those nominees still won cleanly. I think there’s no way a brokered convention isn’t a shitshow w/ much deeper grudges and conspiracy theories that don’t go away.

brokered convention wd def be Bad Optics and shd be avoided by supporting bernie imo.

the cleanliness of the win for trump in 2016 was not a function of popular will so much as it was the winner-take-all delegation award system. and 2008 was not clean either! hrc might've had more popular votes than obama (depending on what you include in the totals) and they fought all the way until fuckin june!

sry for cussin but im v passionate abt being correct all the time

Bloomberg's strategy obviously has very little to do with practical presidential politics, as defined by any kind of politics that has succeeded in the past century, yet he is spending hundreds of millions of dollars out of his own pocket pursuing that strategy.

Personally, I have no belief his current strategy will succeed in securing the nomination for himself, but there doesn't seem to me to be any viable path he could pursue to arrive at the convention with the nomination sewn up (other than those lightning strikes I mentioned), so what do you think he's up to, if not playing a long shot for a brokered convention? Or does he have no strategy at all besides spending carloads of money and crossing his fingers for luck?

― A is for (Aimless)

i am not sure why i would or should care about the answers to the questions you've asked? so much political discussion seems to boil down to this, "yeah but what are they THINKING", people apparently still do this with trump for some reason and now we're doing it with bloomberg too? i don't give a shit, he's another goddamn amoral rich asshole, what or how or where he thinks is of no interest to me whatsoever, if i'm especially dumb it's because it takes me a week on average to bail out of these goddamn political threads.

the bros are not that big a bloc

Perhaps not yet, but they may obtain some...

Wait for it...

bromentum

brokered convention wd def be Bad Optics and shd be avoided by supporting bernie imo.

^^^

Yeah, if Bernie has the most delegates entering the convention, regardless of whether he has enough to "win" and he is not the nominee, it will be the moderate wing of the party that is responsible for what happens, not some fictional bullshit bernie bros narrative.

comma comma

this thread IS worse than the campaign, w/ iatee as Tulsi Gabbard

If Bernie has 30% of delegates and 65% of delegates want another nominee, it's how democracy is supposed to work.

But Bernie will have a majority, or very very close to it, so moderates can't do it.

you dirty motherfuckers, i woke up at 3 am (not this thread's fault, i'm not sleeping for shit last couple weeks because of personal crap) and wrote a bloomberg/biden brokered convention slashfic. that's not the problem. the problem is that 1) it's actually pretty good/hot and 2) it's more insightful than any of the other bullshit y'all assholes have been talking about w/r/t a "brokered convention"

i'm not posting it here because you assholes don't deserve it

:(

#ReleasetheBidenbergSlash

Mods, please fucking close this thread.

aww, just as it was getting good

Every June during Pride, Bloomberg’s NYPD picked a gay bar to flood with cops and shut down. Sure, they’d give them a few fines, but the main thing was chasing business out and showing the fags who was boss. When gay marriage passed in NY they shut the Eagle down within the hour. https://t.co/KbPIMv9Lel

— badcrumble (@gomjabroni) February 19, 2020

bro-brokered

MMM THAT'S SOME GOOD DISCOURSE

Impeached president says what? https://t.co/Sf2gXXppZO

— Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg) February 19, 2020

Okay so yesterday's tweet about Bloomberg's deeply lame talking points was, if anything, wildly overstating his game.

Michael Bloomberg thinks you should vote for Donald Trump...NOT!

bloomberg tells trump 'you fight like a cow!' in SCORCHING new campaign ad

we truly have the discourse digital utopians always promised us

the sheer fucking gall of this asshole:

https://www.axios.com/bernie-sanders-mike-bloomberg-delegate-race-bee5b692-a0ca-449a-a714-4c212ad15010.html

the sheer fucking gall of this asshole, beseeching other candidates to drop out of a race in which he hasn't even appeared on a ballot yet. i'm no Mayor Pete fan and obviously he's got a tough road to hoe but he's got the most fucking delegates right now!

Forget siphoning votes from Bloomberg, what about the votes that Sanders is siphoning away from ME (forgot to mention, just inherited $8 billion, declaring my candidacy next week, everybody gets a sandwich with as many toppings as you like with a max of three toppings).

Offer a pickle on the side and you've got my vote

fwiw Bloomps entering the race is kinda good for Bernie

Obviously Bloomberg could see his #'s keep growing, or they could shrink, but the scenario where he stalls out at ~16%, enough to make Biden's fall much worse and to blunt momentum for Buttigieg, but without coming particularly close to Sanders, is a really good one for Bernie.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 19, 2020

^i wouldn't go so far to say that it's "good" yet - there are a lot of different ways this could go - but the scenario silver describes seems like the most likely one to me. hopefully he'll fall on his face (or get pushed) in the debate tonight

it seems pretty apparent to me that Bernie's path to the nom is similar to Trump's in 2016 and another bad centrist jumping in the race is more likely to help him

obviously I've been eating crow on political matters a lot lately but I still don't see how Bloomberg develops any sort of constituency. he's gonna suck in this debate

I hope Bloomberg's rise is based on the media/electorate being bored with the field like the clown cars of past GOP primaries. Assume Steyer has his turn coming up soon.