outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

There has been a very big jump in the number of cases within China in the last 24 hours, though that has followed a change to the way in which patients are diagnosed, so it’s not obvious whether things are getting worse or whether they’re just getting better at identifying how bad it was.

Russian containment measures are going about as well as you’d expect:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/russians-escape-coronavirus-quarantine-cages-a69257

A woman who’d been told she’d tested negative but still had to stay in lockdown for two weeks short-circuited the electro-magnetic lock on her hospital cell and escaped.

My understanding is that today's case/death jump is a one-day info dump in which current and past cases and deaths that only had clinical diagnoses (incl. pneumonia in CT scans), but not PCR-test confirmation of the COVAD19 virus (which is bottlenecked), were reclassified.

Drill down to serious/critical cases and there's actually some improvement:

Yesterday - 5,724 serious /1,517 critical
Today - 5,647 serious / 1,437 critical

Not new, but food for thought: 29% of the infected at one Wuhan hospital are medical staff.

COVAD COVID

Oh good a coronavirus patient just turned up at my local A&E in an Uber.

Good advertising idea for Uber: "We'll take anyone in our cabs'.

uber: no longer just in the business of killing traditional taxi businesses

gig economy more like gag, you cough on me. In my opinion

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/17/coronavirus-live-updates-us-citizens-japan-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-china-wuhan-hubei-cases-death-toll-latest-news

So basically this luxury cruise ship has been turned into a concentration camp, and everyone on board are now internees, left to fight off the fast-moving virus if they're able? A sobering preview of humanity's future, nothing to see here though don't worry.

That’s not quite the example I’d use when we have the camps on Nauru

Although our tropical camps have been very useful for interning our zombie apocalypse victims.

Ukraine protesters attack buses carrying China evacuees

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51581805

It's safe to say that a lot of global tensions (and racism) are going to get a venting over the next while.

We haven't had a lot of confirmed cases in Vietnam yet (and all but one has been cleared) but the govt has shut down all schools for the past month and it looks likely they will be closed until the end of March to be safe. Myself and most of my friends here are teachers, nearly all of us out of work (I'm very lucky not to be, for the time being). Many of my expat friends out of work have thought about leaving the country, and of course, no one knows how the schools will make up for missing two months of classes. So it's a bit grim in my circles before we've really had to deal with the virus at all

To Andrew's point, there's a shit ton of anti-China racism here too

weird story about the S Korean cultist who refused to be tested then spread it to like half her congregation

South Korean universities started like a month late because of this now, now they’re going again as the virus begins to spread there. I’m going there in April.

State department dumb as a bag of spanners.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-americans/2020/02/20/b6f54cae-5279-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html

Euler I’m not sure it’s actually spread much beyond that cult. Hard to know though. It helps to have the buffer of North Korea. Pretty hard border there.

Hmm ok! I thought I saw that it was getting going. It’s not going to stop me from going, unless the borders get closed, which seems very unlikely.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERZlRtLXkAABN2i?format=jpg

China's draconian measures seem to be working. Or they're lying.

New cases really picking up in South Korea, Iran.

there was an infected japanese couple that were on oahu and maui and flew back home. there have been basically no updates about it after the fact and I think they haven't been testing anyone for it here.

Italy has put twelve towns in Lombardy and Veneto on lockdown.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51602007

The cases in Lombardy appear to link to a guy who had no record of travel to China and they currently have no idea how he got it.

Bought more masks, bleach, hand-sanitizer, and canned goods today. Enough of the first 3 to give to my elderly parents who aren't paying much attention.

Where are you, Sanpaku?

My wife is dealing with the effects of a fair chunk on the students enrolled for the classes she’s teaching this semester not being able to show up. Along with being made programme director for the masters programmes in her department last semester, it’s ended up being a lot of work.

Despite pleas to the contrary Chinese restaurants appear to be pretty empty, no incoming Chinese and people avoiding them. We had an awesome Hunan garlic feast on Friday in a mostly empty restaurant.

I have travel booked for japan, before and during golden week. I’m wondering if my plans will eventuate or if this will spread.

sanpaku is in new orleans iirc

how exactly will this kill me? dehydration/vomiting? this is my time to shine

Ed: NOLA, a mile from a 75 yr old father. It's not my field, despite reading Laurie Garrett for decades. I've just been following the more public epidemiologists and infectious disease Drs, some on the more alarmed side (@DrEricDing et al), some more reserved (Dr. John Campbell is rather calming), joining in on the beatdowns of conspiracy nuts at r/ChinaFlu. If your planning on redditing this pandemic, the saner sort hang at r/COVID19.

Re: hosing my parents with Purell: Had to buy a wiper blade, was surprised to find a big display of the economy size hand-sanitizer at the entrance (no shortages there), and a misplaced box of N95s in the hardware section (they've been scarce). No intention of hoarding/arbitrage, just wanted some boxes (not cases) for the parents. There's a low probability that we'll see lockdowns in the US, though nothing comparable to Wuhan.

mookiproof: Death (mostly in the elderly and those with comorbidities) mostly comes through suffocation as one's lungs fill with fluid. Like SARS, COV SARS-2 responsible for COVID-19 targets the lung's cilia cells, preventing mucus transport, and then the innate immune system (macrophages etc) damages lung tissues with oxidative bursts. Alveoli fill up with mucus, pus, blood, and at some threshold there's not enough oxygen transport for life. ICUs can handle this (oxygen and ventilators), but in Hubei, critical cases rapidly outnumbered critical beds. I suspect few parts of the world overbuild their critical care infrastructure, and the non-COVID-19 cases still need care...

Seems likely the WHO will declare a pandemic in the near future. A "super-spreader" subset of the infected appear to be contagious for weeks before any symptoms, so containment is no longer the game. China's herculean/draconian efforts bought the world around 6 additional weeks to prepare. Police shoving people into quarantine wards isn't good optics (though a sound practice), and much appears to be pointless busy-work (sterilizing the sidewalks), but the extra time potentially will save millions.

There are some 90 antiviral drug trials taking place, a couple labs have already expressed Covid-19 shell proteins (in bacteria) for potential use as vaccines, its been really impressive watching global infectious disease science drop their current projects (for the duration) and tackling this.

I am watching Chernobyl right now and it just reinforces how little faith I have in the people that ultimately make decisions of communication about these things.

I saw people wearing masks in the airport yesterday and thought they were out of their minds tbh.

I am kind of whatever about the masks but will pick up some n95s when I get home home since they are also useful for other things. It is funny to see white people wearing them in public now though.

I would pick up n95s on sight as they have become rare as hens teeth in Australia (P2s here)

NB this is bushfire related, rather than strictly about focus-19. My wife has asthma and I had to send off to China for 3M particulate masks (the irony).

oh yeah, I have asthma and I was also thinking of fire related things and even tear gas (although I don't think they are that useful for that butI have a better non-disposable gas mask).

at the start of the recent chilean protests I was surprised how poorly prepared a lot of our friends (the non-chilean ones) were. the grocery stores were all shut down or on abbreviated schedules +the curfews and people didn't have enough food in their house for a week. We always have enough for a month and that's mostly because I get anxious if I am somewhere where it takes a long time to get certain things in stock. I didn't even bother trying to find n95s here (hawaii) and probably got some of the last few disposable surgical masks in the market last month.

Re: decisions of communication about these things

Australian virologist Ian Mackay posted this response by the "expert risk communication team" of Jody Lanard and Peter Sandman. Recommended reading, mostly geared to other communicators, but salted with some tips on preparation as the response progresses from containment to "social distancing".

Past Time to Tell the Public: It Will Probably Go Pandemic, and We Should All Prepare Now

but to Yerac's point

Every single official we know is having multiple “Oh my God” moments, as new COVID-19 developments occur and new findings emerge. OMG – there is a fair amount of transmission by infected people with mild or subclinical cases! OMG – there is a high viral load early on in nasal and pharyngeal samples! OMG – the Diamond Princess, how can that have been allowed to happen! And on and on.

Officials help each other through those moments. They go home and tell their families and friends, sharing the OMG sensation. And then what do they tell the public? That they understand that “people are concerned” (as if they themselves weren’t alarmed), but “the risk is low and there’s nothing you need to do now.”

people just seem completely unwilling to inconvenience themselves to stop from spreading it when they know they have symptoms. I don't know how it won't get worse.

timely article here on Italian quarantine in the 17th century (though I suspect written before covid-19):

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n04/erin-maglaque/inclined-to-putrefaction

I guess I do think it will go pandemic, but I'm not concerned about dying from it.

Neither am I, but I am worried about the older members of my family.

I dunno, some of the fatalities so far seem to be falling outside of the elderly/children/compromised category ... But then, the regular flu takes so many otherwise healthy people out annually, too.


We're traveling to Hawaii in a couple of weeks, honestly a hair nervous. We went to Australia at the peak of swine flu, and one of my kids had only gotten one of the two required shots, and we are pretty sure she came down with a mild case, which was miserable.

I can't be sure but I think I had swine flu too, at any rate it was during the peak of it and I was really sick for like 3 weeks.

I haven't noticed any changes in behavior (no masks, e.g.) at the east Asian shops I frequent, nor any diminution of business.

Huh, I was just reading that so far kids aren't really being hit by this, or if they are they're not being hit harder than a cold, or maybe they get it but don't show symptoms. I don't think they know why yet.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/20/807483553/coronavirus-is-contagious-but-kids-seem-less-vulnerable-so-far

Sounds bad:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/world-is-approaching-coronavirus-tipping-point-experts-say

xpost hawaii doesn't even have kits to test, but i guess if you can't test for it, you don't have to report it.

It's shocking there are supposedly no cases that originated on oahu. it's high season and it's been throbbing with asian tourists.

Sifting through the news, my impression is:

The good news is that, even though it can and does kill people, the virulence of this news virus is moderate enough that the fatality rate may be well under 2%, with a large percentage of exposed people remaining asymptomatic.

The bad news is that because it is a novel strain and fairly easily transmitted, it could spread widely and rapidly to pandemic levels and almost everyone will be exposed to it within the next few years. So, the mad rush for a vaccine is totally justified, because 1% of 8 billion people would be 80 million dead worldwide and anything that can reduce the impact is going to save a considerable number of lives.

I expect some of ilx's MDs might be able to draw a much clearer and more accurate picture than I just did, but that is the gist I'm getting from the media.

this is going to help bernie, right?

nah, gotta cancel the election for infection control purposes

old fogies gotta watch out for this, no more baby kissing

i'm just thinking, if we can't get young people to actually vote, maybe there's an alternative

i thought you meant all these sick people in US being unable to afford a diagnosis/healthcare.

one other kinda major unknown is what happens to virus as it mutates (rather quickly) - will it become more or less virulent, or maybe remain status quo in that respect

xpost to Aimless

this guy

Though it is a disturbing & extreme option, we should seriously consider deliberately infecting folks with coronavirus, to spread out the number of critically ill people over time, and to ensure that critical infrastructure remains available to help sick. https://t.co/giIfo8z8v0

— Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) February 14, 2020

That sounds utterly batshit, but I guess I can see his chain of reasoning. If we knew with a very high probability that the vast majority of people in a certain area would contract the illness in a short span of time, it might make sense to start introducing it gradually in advance. But there's a lot of "if"s in that chain of reasoning.