Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

A kind of super special prisoners dilemma where you strategicaly vote for a candidate who is polling much worse than the front runner whose policies better Align with your own because you think other people or more likely to support them.

I'm trying to maintain my sanity by projecting absolutely nothing, winner of Nevada, the Democratic nom, November, whatever.

but, given the lessons of 2016 (depressed outvoting among POC by even a hair is the difference in winning and losing, primarily), a resurgent Biden winning SC and going on or Bernie are the best chances in November IMO. Klobuchar or Buttigieg might beat Trump in national polls but they'd be in danger of repeating 2016's outcome IMO

agree that neither of those bozos have "National Presence" written all over them

this is based on national polls primarily right? do we have robust polling on swing states? obv hillary was also set to beat trump by a few points (and did so)

not robust, no

I'd bet my shirt that Trump isn't gonna win the popular vote in 2020 and I am guessing the DNC knows that too. They're gonna hit the swing states hard.

also emphasizing turnout instead of getting prematurely excited about projected results, causing fence sitters to stay home or vote Green

National polls recently had Biden not just beating Trump, but well in front of all other democratic contenders, too. So much for national polls telling you anything about what political reality will look like a month from now.

speaking of the Green Party...

The Presidential Campaign Support Committee has published the documentation for those seeking our nomination. The PCSC also maintains a document listing those seeking our nomination.

They are Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry, Howie Hawkins, Dario Hunter, Dennis Lambert, David Rolde, Ian Schlakman and Chad Wilson. Submitted questionnaires by the candidates are available here.

https://www.gp.org/2020

I can't see the future, But there is IMO a large chance that if Bernie does not end up the nominee it will have been because of a contested convention where super delegates have decided to give it to someone else even though he had the majority of delegates. This will pretty much give trump 4 more, but i think they may do it anyway. Or alternately they let bernie take it with the idea that he will lose the general and they can spend the next 20 years blaming him for it and hippy punching.

huh?

its my own nightmare scenarios idk tell me I'm wrong. in the second one they may be underestimating him.

you seem to be making a number of faulty assumptions there

if Bernie has a majority of delegates at the convention, he wins, full stop

also assumes that no other Democrat can beat Trump which is not borne out by current polling

even though he had the majority of delegates

I think you may be thinking 'majority' but really mean 'plurality'. If he has a majority, he wins. That is how it works.

I think dsb means a plurality of delegates and someone else getting the nomination. Which I agree is a nightmare scenario for Democratic chances.

if he has less than 50 there is a second round of voting where deals get made and super delegates vote as well right?

50 %

i don't think bernie vs the party is the best way to view the primary process. the party is sort of an empty shell that becomes an avatar/puppet for the personalities + political movements that comprise its base. if bernie wins it will be because within the current dynamics of the party he and his base are the strongest wing. if he loses it will be because some other wing has prevailed. maybe all the moderates but one drop out and it turns out the media CW is true and they just outright win on delegates. or in the scenario you're painting a sort of coup it's because bernie is unable to win sufficient delegates to outright take it and the other wings turn out to be one wing that deny him at the convention - btw this is extremely unlikely bc bernie is not winning bc the moderates are actually stronger and are just too stupid to drop out and make one consensus alternative. that's also a dumb way of viewing the primary. there are multiple streams and identities that are constantly shifting. there is no bloc of anti-sanders party members strong enough to deny him the nomination. all polling suggests the vast majority of dems would be satisfied with him as the nominee. if you believe in him you believe that too likely.

if he goes into the convention with the most delegates imho he will be the nominee whether or not he clinches beforehand.

^^^

this is what I mean by space mountain. everybody in the dark, screaming and occasionally laughing, being hurled about, although hardly going faster than an average person can pedal on a bike

fun to observe as long as you aren't too invested and are in relatively good health

xp i do you hope you're right. the way i see it is more like the DNC and most of the media networks are actively doing whatever they can to stop sanders. and its quite possible they will rob him of it at the convention if he doesn't have the plurality. in particular i think Bloomberg may be angling for this scenario, either to be the nominee or a power broker who has split off enough delegates to deny him an outright win.

I'd bet money Bloomberg does not get any actual delegates

the DNC and most of the media networks are actively doing whatever they can to stop sanders

also: this reads like garden-variety conspiracy theorizing to me

i think bloomberg's plan is to inundate the super tuesday states with so much advertising that he outright starts winning on delegates going forward from there. i doubt he's planning on using inner party machinations to wrangle the nomination.

does bloomberg even have those connections in the wider party? my impression is he does not. he's a weirdo who used to be a republican. i think ppl are still remembering all the party support hillary clinton had but none of these nominees have that sort of relationship with the dnc not even biden who is the closest.

"actively doing what they can" is too much, but, yes, the networks are all WHEN WILL BLOOMBERG DROP IN

xp Sure but just because you're paranoid doesn't mean you're not right. i mean do you really want to me post examples of highly prejudicial shit said daly on msnbc about bernie? or talk about the spin and mismanegemnt coming out of voter irregularities in Iowa?

No nobody wants you to post that.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/482607-klobuchar-we-need-to-build-a-big-tent-for-anti-abortion-democrats

Revising my vote in the moderate poll

Uncle Joe it is, I guess

msnbc

lol

ok well it applies to the nyt or wapo as well in slightly different manners. and a lot of people's politics are defined by cable news.

also here were no voters in Iowa, there were caucus-goers (there is a difference)

xps

voters would have had ballots, which could have been easily tabulated, verified and reported.

idk cable news is all just noise to me, I'm baffled that anybody lends credence to it or watches it with any seriousness (outside of Fox News which is obviously a huge bubble with genuine devotees)

Actually, we're finally getting evidence that MSNBC shapes Dem primary voter decisions:

https://newrepublic.com/article/156545/bernie-sanders-msnbc-problem

lol how can you pitch a big tent on 'abortion', the most black and white issue there is politically. this is this same bullshit I keep seeing people say, and it's because people think 'big tent' means 'shunning' possible voters with other views that don't toe the party line, but how the fuck do you 'shun' a voter as a politician? A politician will accept your vote even if you're a scientologist nazi elephant. It isn't like they could even refuse it if they wanted to.

this isn't a fuckin' economic plan with a wide scope of possibilities, lol, it's abortion. you're either pro-choice, or pro-life, and the 'middle' ground means being amenable to things like unnecessary state restrictions that make abortions much more difficult (if not impossible) to get which means you're already essentially pro-life, given how the GOP has weaponized this faux-middle ground.

shotgunned in the foot - we accept your concession, Klobs!

xxxxxxxxxxpost

i mean it's not that big of a tent if by opening it to lifers you push the choicers out of it

besides, do you really need a big tent? the GOP's tent is basically a used rubber

After last Friday’s Democratic debate, Chris Matthews waxed apoplectic about what electing a socialist could mean for America. “I have an attitude towards (Fidel) Castro,” he said. “I believe if Castro and the Reds had won the Cold War there would have been executions in Central Park, and I might have been one of the ones getting executed. And certain other people would be there cheering, OK?” Matthews’s colleagues pointed out that Sanders was more of a Danish type of socialist than a Castro type of socialist, but to little avail.

jfc

Matthews then stared at the camera for 10 minutes without moving

certain other people would be there cheering, OK?

can't say he's not self-aware

ok, here are the titles of the last several emails from Biden's campaign:

apologies
I need $5 for the final push
politely asking
I won't regret this ask
nothing left to say
emailing for $5 (John Kerry *on behalf* of Joe Biden)
exclusive campaign strategy for you (please read)
Final goal
sorry to bother you
If everyone who reads this gives me one dollar...
reaching out to you
emailing for $5
no regrets
please read and confirm
please read
I'm coming to you
are you on the record?
Thank you
re: tonight's results
in case you missed Joe's note (his HQ on his behalf)
will you vote for Joe in Florida?
Iowa was just the start. Now help me win the rest of the Democratic Primary.
This is my most important ask of you to date
I don't want to fall short
Gut punch
Need $5 to elect Joe Biden
please grant me this request
need your eyes on this ASAP
emailing for $5
need 5 from Orlando
please read this before tonight's debate
I fought like hell tonight
Tell us what you thought of last night's debate
Here's the truth:
I don't see your response
Two days left and I need your help
this email is critical
Did you see this?
humbly asking you
Let's get real
I'm coming to you directly
time is running out to pitch in $5
I'll be damned if I'm going to stand by and lose my country
We're just getting started
The truth about last night
It's important that you donate today.
please

Wow

8 of those from the last two days

and all shaped like early William Carlos Williams poems