Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

he's a trapper keeper

so Romney has lots of binders full of Bernie? I'm confused

Culinary’s refusal to help Biden, the major candidate most aligned with their healthcare concerns, tells everything about how his campaign is seen privately. Their mailers seem furious their position is left to such a weak candidate.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) February 11, 2020

remember when everybody was so sure he was the de facto candidate

this is why it's pointless to grouse before you're even in the election year yet

This thread today has been like Space Mountain

Dark and rough on your back?

certain to malfunction and result in 4 fatalities on March 13, 2020?

that's dark man

My nieces love Space Mountain, and they'll love this thread!

fun fact: space mountain actually only goes 28 miles per hour, tops

any people who've moved from Warren to Sanders

I'll actively support unless and until she drops out. The current state of the economy will influence on who I support: If we get our long delayed recession (from trade war and COVID-19 effects percolating through the economy), then Sanders may have a chance, if not, I'll probably go to Klobuchar as the most competitive in swing states.

most competitive

citation needed

(which was not peer-reviewed)

I just don't understand the data-free eeyore pose that SOME PEOPLE continue to take regarding possible democratic nominees. IIRC they're all currently set to beat Trump by a few points.

i know nevada is special, but this is a general problem for biden

Labor is a really underrated weakness for Biden compared to Clinton. By this point she had most of the largest unions (AFSCME, AFT, NEA, SEIU, UFCW) behind her. He has the Iron Workers and Fire Fighters and that’s about it.

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) February 12, 2020

I've never been a Berniebro but by the time my primary comes around I expect the field will have narrowed somewhat - Warren and Biden could both be gone, for ex. - and he's liable to be the best available option. Def not voting for the Best Little Boy or a billionaire or Dodderin' Joe

IIRC they're all currently set to beat Trump by a few points.

this is based on national polls primarily right? do we have robust polling on swing states? obv hillary was also set to beat trump by a few points (and did so)

oh good an excuse to post this again

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3mw49mk_x0

I just don't understand the data-free eeyore pose that SOME PEOPLE continue to take regarding possible democratic nominees. IIRC they're all currently set to beat Trump by a few points.

hey if people wanna be defeatist and sob over a glass of wine to their Peabo Bryson cassingles, i don't know their life.

A kind of super special prisoners dilemma where you strategicaly vote for a candidate who is polling much worse than the front runner whose policies better Align with your own because you think other people or more likely to support them.

I'm trying to maintain my sanity by projecting absolutely nothing, winner of Nevada, the Democratic nom, November, whatever.

but, given the lessons of 2016 (depressed outvoting among POC by even a hair is the difference in winning and losing, primarily), a resurgent Biden winning SC and going on or Bernie are the best chances in November IMO. Klobuchar or Buttigieg might beat Trump in national polls but they'd be in danger of repeating 2016's outcome IMO

agree that neither of those bozos have "National Presence" written all over them

this is based on national polls primarily right? do we have robust polling on swing states? obv hillary was also set to beat trump by a few points (and did so)

not robust, no

I'd bet my shirt that Trump isn't gonna win the popular vote in 2020 and I am guessing the DNC knows that too. They're gonna hit the swing states hard.

also emphasizing turnout instead of getting prematurely excited about projected results, causing fence sitters to stay home or vote Green

National polls recently had Biden not just beating Trump, but well in front of all other democratic contenders, too. So much for national polls telling you anything about what political reality will look like a month from now.

speaking of the Green Party...

The Presidential Campaign Support Committee has published the documentation for those seeking our nomination. The PCSC also maintains a document listing those seeking our nomination.

They are Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry, Howie Hawkins, Dario Hunter, Dennis Lambert, David Rolde, Ian Schlakman and Chad Wilson. Submitted questionnaires by the candidates are available here.

https://www.gp.org/2020

I can't see the future, But there is IMO a large chance that if Bernie does not end up the nominee it will have been because of a contested convention where super delegates have decided to give it to someone else even though he had the majority of delegates. This will pretty much give trump 4 more, but i think they may do it anyway. Or alternately they let bernie take it with the idea that he will lose the general and they can spend the next 20 years blaming him for it and hippy punching.

huh?

its my own nightmare scenarios idk tell me I'm wrong. in the second one they may be underestimating him.

you seem to be making a number of faulty assumptions there

if Bernie has a majority of delegates at the convention, he wins, full stop

also assumes that no other Democrat can beat Trump which is not borne out by current polling

even though he had the majority of delegates

I think you may be thinking 'majority' but really mean 'plurality'. If he has a majority, he wins. That is how it works.

I think dsb means a plurality of delegates and someone else getting the nomination. Which I agree is a nightmare scenario for Democratic chances.

if he has less than 50 there is a second round of voting where deals get made and super delegates vote as well right?

50 %

i don't think bernie vs the party is the best way to view the primary process. the party is sort of an empty shell that becomes an avatar/puppet for the personalities + political movements that comprise its base. if bernie wins it will be because within the current dynamics of the party he and his base are the strongest wing. if he loses it will be because some other wing has prevailed. maybe all the moderates but one drop out and it turns out the media CW is true and they just outright win on delegates. or in the scenario you're painting a sort of coup it's because bernie is unable to win sufficient delegates to outright take it and the other wings turn out to be one wing that deny him at the convention - btw this is extremely unlikely bc bernie is not winning bc the moderates are actually stronger and are just too stupid to drop out and make one consensus alternative. that's also a dumb way of viewing the primary. there are multiple streams and identities that are constantly shifting. there is no bloc of anti-sanders party members strong enough to deny him the nomination. all polling suggests the vast majority of dems would be satisfied with him as the nominee. if you believe in him you believe that too likely.

if he goes into the convention with the most delegates imho he will be the nominee whether or not he clinches beforehand.

^^^

this is what I mean by space mountain. everybody in the dark, screaming and occasionally laughing, being hurled about, although hardly going faster than an average person can pedal on a bike

fun to observe as long as you aren't too invested and are in relatively good health

xp i do you hope you're right. the way i see it is more like the DNC and most of the media networks are actively doing whatever they can to stop sanders. and its quite possible they will rob him of it at the convention if he doesn't have the plurality. in particular i think Bloomberg may be angling for this scenario, either to be the nominee or a power broker who has split off enough delegates to deny him an outright win.

I'd bet money Bloomberg does not get any actual delegates

the DNC and most of the media networks are actively doing whatever they can to stop sanders

also: this reads like garden-variety conspiracy theorizing to me

i think bloomberg's plan is to inundate the super tuesday states with so much advertising that he outright starts winning on delegates going forward from there. i doubt he's planning on using inner party machinations to wrangle the nomination.

does bloomberg even have those connections in the wider party? my impression is he does not. he's a weirdo who used to be a republican. i think ppl are still remembering all the party support hillary clinton had but none of these nominees have that sort of relationship with the dnc not even biden who is the closest.

"actively doing what they can" is too much, but, yes, the networks are all WHEN WILL BLOOMBERG DROP IN

xp Sure but just because you're paranoid doesn't mean you're not right. i mean do you really want to me post examples of highly prejudicial shit said daly on msnbc about bernie? or talk about the spin and mismanegemnt coming out of voter irregularities in Iowa?