Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

I would like to see a poll breakdown of moderate voters' second choice. I have no empirical data to back it up but I think a non-negligible segment are ranking the most palatable moderate/the moderate they think most likely to beat Trump first and more progressive "this is how I really feel" candidate second; I think a good chunk of Warren's issue right now is that she is everyone's second-favorite candidate, which is the absolute worst place to be in a winner-take-all contest.

the theory (one i also sorta buy) is that much like trump had the largest base in a highly divided field and the opponents didn't consolidate quickly enough to offer an alternative b4 the delegate lead got out of hand bernie is potentially benefiting from a similar set of circumstances

don't Republicans do "winner take all" for most states? even though Bernie has won the popular vote he's still 2 behind in the delegate count. I don't really know the way the remaining states work.

re: unperson's Guardian link; this is the exact conversation happening among black/Asian friends of mine from college on Facebook today

I would like to see a poll breakdown of moderate voters' second choice. I have no empirical data to back it up but I think a non-negligible segment are ranking the most palatable moderate/the moderate they think most likely to beat Trump first and more progressive "this is how I really feel" candidate second; I think a good chunk of Warren's issue right now is that she is everyone's second-favorite candidate, which is the absolute worst place to be in a winner-take-all contest.

― totally unnecessary bewbz of exploitation (DJP), Wednesday, February 12, 2020 2:17 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I posted this on the Bernie thread earlier. It's from the Quinnipiac poll from the other day; I have to imagine NH results will move some of these numbers around. (Also, since it's a little confusing, the 1st-choice candidates are in the columns, and the 2nd-choice candidates are in the rows.)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQi5wnnXUAIVEt5?format=jpg&name=medium

ha, I still got it *brushes imaginary dirt off shoulders*

also lol at "if not Buttigieg, then Gabbard"

like, wtf are you smoking

"If I can't have the gay candidate, I want the candidate who backed conversion therapy because no one should get to be attracted to their own gender if Pete can't be POTUS"

They want someone young presumably

Gabbard is the only other candidate under 40

Or they’re ex military, and don’t trust a commander in chief who isn’t a veteran.

I think the latter is more likely actually

I think a lot of them are supporting their chosen candidate because they like his/her personality or think he/she is "electable" or whatever

bingo

I have political conversations with a lot of people and it's amazing how many of them have basically no understanding of what each candidate stands for. they think of Bernie as the "free stuff" guy who looks like Larry David, Pete as a smart young upstart, Warren as *sigh* "Pocahontas", Biden & Bloomberg as they guys they know who they think have the best shot of beating Trump. the one argument I've heard in favor of Bloomberg is that "he's everything Trump wants to be and that will piss him off", and it's like...yeah...Trump does seem particularly bothered by Bloomberg, but man it must be nice to only care about politics on such a surface level

SMONE ELSE

the theory (one i also sorta buy) is that much like trump had the largest base in a highly divided field and the opponents didn't consolidate quickly enough to offer an alternative b4 the delegate lead got out of hand bernie is potentially benefiting from a similar set of circumstances

^^^this is what I was getting at many posts ago

xps

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-leads-all-democratic-candidates-support-non-white-voters-new-polls-show-1486807

Xp sure I think that is a factor. But also the narrative that Bernie isn’t actually winning, it’s just that the centrists haven’t settled on a candidate yet is a spin being used by people who wish to undermine his apparent support. We don’t know he would be performing in a one on race against Pete or Bloomberg or whoever.

That being said I wish his margin had been higher in NH. But i think he looks strong going into the next contests.

the anti-union Bernie flyer is definitely a bad sign in NV

er anti-Bernie Union flyer!

sorry
big difference

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-leads-all-democratic-candidates-support-non-white-voters-new-polls-show-1486807

But...but Pete has convinced me that Bernie is a divider!

https://cdn.officestationery.co.uk/products/295179-500/5-Star-Office-A4-Subject-Dividers-Multipunched-Man.jpg

he's a trapper keeper

so Romney has lots of binders full of Bernie? I'm confused

Culinary’s refusal to help Biden, the major candidate most aligned with their healthcare concerns, tells everything about how his campaign is seen privately. Their mailers seem furious their position is left to such a weak candidate.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) February 11, 2020

remember when everybody was so sure he was the de facto candidate

this is why it's pointless to grouse before you're even in the election year yet

This thread today has been like Space Mountain

Dark and rough on your back?

certain to malfunction and result in 4 fatalities on March 13, 2020?

that's dark man

My nieces love Space Mountain, and they'll love this thread!

fun fact: space mountain actually only goes 28 miles per hour, tops

any people who've moved from Warren to Sanders

I'll actively support unless and until she drops out. The current state of the economy will influence on who I support: If we get our long delayed recession (from trade war and COVID-19 effects percolating through the economy), then Sanders may have a chance, if not, I'll probably go to Klobuchar as the most competitive in swing states.

most competitive

citation needed

(which was not peer-reviewed)

I just don't understand the data-free eeyore pose that SOME PEOPLE continue to take regarding possible democratic nominees. IIRC they're all currently set to beat Trump by a few points.

i know nevada is special, but this is a general problem for biden

Labor is a really underrated weakness for Biden compared to Clinton. By this point she had most of the largest unions (AFSCME, AFT, NEA, SEIU, UFCW) behind her. He has the Iron Workers and Fire Fighters and that’s about it.

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) February 12, 2020

I've never been a Berniebro but by the time my primary comes around I expect the field will have narrowed somewhat - Warren and Biden could both be gone, for ex. - and he's liable to be the best available option. Def not voting for the Best Little Boy or a billionaire or Dodderin' Joe

IIRC they're all currently set to beat Trump by a few points.

this is based on national polls primarily right? do we have robust polling on swing states? obv hillary was also set to beat trump by a few points (and did so)

oh good an excuse to post this again

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3mw49mk_x0

I just don't understand the data-free eeyore pose that SOME PEOPLE continue to take regarding possible democratic nominees. IIRC they're all currently set to beat Trump by a few points.

hey if people wanna be defeatist and sob over a glass of wine to their Peabo Bryson cassingles, i don't know their life.

A kind of super special prisoners dilemma where you strategicaly vote for a candidate who is polling much worse than the front runner whose policies better Align with your own because you think other people or more likely to support them.

I'm trying to maintain my sanity by projecting absolutely nothing, winner of Nevada, the Democratic nom, November, whatever.

but, given the lessons of 2016 (depressed outvoting among POC by even a hair is the difference in winning and losing, primarily), a resurgent Biden winning SC and going on or Bernie are the best chances in November IMO. Klobuchar or Buttigieg might beat Trump in national polls but they'd be in danger of repeating 2016's outcome IMO

agree that neither of those bozos have "National Presence" written all over them

this is based on national polls primarily right? do we have robust polling on swing states? obv hillary was also set to beat trump by a few points (and did so)

not robust, no

I'd bet my shirt that Trump isn't gonna win the popular vote in 2020 and I am guessing the DNC knows that too. They're gonna hit the swing states hard.

also emphasizing turnout instead of getting prematurely excited about projected results, causing fence sitters to stay home or vote Green

National polls recently had Biden not just beating Trump, but well in front of all other democratic contenders, too. So much for national polls telling you anything about what political reality will look like a month from now.

speaking of the Green Party...

The Presidential Campaign Support Committee has published the documentation for those seeking our nomination. The PCSC also maintains a document listing those seeking our nomination.

They are Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry, Howie Hawkins, Dario Hunter, Dennis Lambert, David Rolde, Ian Schlakman and Chad Wilson. Submitted questionnaires by the candidates are available here.

https://www.gp.org/2020

I can't see the future, But there is IMO a large chance that if Bernie does not end up the nominee it will have been because of a contested convention where super delegates have decided to give it to someone else even though he had the majority of delegates. This will pretty much give trump 4 more, but i think they may do it anyway. Or alternately they let bernie take it with the idea that he will lose the general and they can spend the next 20 years blaming him for it and hippy punching.

huh?