Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

my rose-tinted take is that there are just more moderates in the race

but i guess what i'm thinking is that if three of the four mods dropped out, would it essentially be one of them at 47% vs sanders at ~25%

Again thats similar to Trump’s initial primary numbers iirc

again? sorry if i missed conversation upthread, work has been a nightmare

fwiw i'm not responding to anything said upthread

i feel like if all the other candidates dropped out bar sanders and the mayor then bernie would lose

he needs the centrist vote split

the theory (one i also sorta buy) is that much like trump had the largest base in a highly divided field and the opponents didn't consolidate quickly enough to offer an alternative b4 the delegate lead got out of hand bernie is potentially benefiting from a similar set of circumstances

the mayor(s)?

is it concerning

Speaking purely as someone who has never seen his early first choice gain the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party, unless you count McGovern, who I couldn't vote for because I turned 18 the day after the 1972 election, I have given up on being 'concerned' by the nature of US national elections. They are as little under my control as acts of God or the forces of nature.

xp i agree with you on branding sund4r, but i think the difference in their hands-on experience with the interests of the right is different, and that warren—outside of academics and as legislator—has better nous regarding their methods practices, perhaps their impulses too. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-corporations.html

Hence whynthry hate her most.

*why they

I think it's a mistake to assume that the supporters of one moderate candidate will move en masse to another moderate once their favorite drops out. Moderates are largely pretty ideologically squishy, that's part of why they're moderates. I think a lot of them are supporting their chosen candidate because they like his/her personality or think he/she is "electable" or whatever. I bet a decent chunk of, e.g., Biden supporters end up moving toward Bernie when Biden drops out.

Does the average voter even know Warren is closer to Bernie than Pete policy-wise? Even the chapo boys, who make money doing this, treat her as a nemesis

xp Also that poll is only of Democratic voters. Sanders's argument is that he can more votes from outside that group (especially non-voters) than any of the others.

that he can *get* more votes

In theory a good portion of those warren votes could go to a moderate. I think people’s problem with sanders is often more style than substance—like they are fine with raising taxes and shoring up the safety net, but resent “divisiveness.” Warren is divisive among some top hat/long coat boomers I know but her brand is much different—championing working families rather than the international proletariat

xps - Sanders seems to pull best among the young and among the more ideologically leftist, neither of which describes the average Biden supporter. That's not to say you are wrong, non-ideological voters can make strange decisions, but only that I can't see much firm ground upon which to base that conclusion.

It's almost over for the Booty Judge.

I would like to see a poll breakdown of moderate voters' second choice. I have no empirical data to back it up but I think a non-negligible segment are ranking the most palatable moderate/the moderate they think most likely to beat Trump first and more progressive "this is how I really feel" candidate second; I think a good chunk of Warren's issue right now is that she is everyone's second-favorite candidate, which is the absolute worst place to be in a winner-take-all contest.

the theory (one i also sorta buy) is that much like trump had the largest base in a highly divided field and the opponents didn't consolidate quickly enough to offer an alternative b4 the delegate lead got out of hand bernie is potentially benefiting from a similar set of circumstances

don't Republicans do "winner take all" for most states? even though Bernie has won the popular vote he's still 2 behind in the delegate count. I don't really know the way the remaining states work.

re: unperson's Guardian link; this is the exact conversation happening among black/Asian friends of mine from college on Facebook today

I would like to see a poll breakdown of moderate voters' second choice. I have no empirical data to back it up but I think a non-negligible segment are ranking the most palatable moderate/the moderate they think most likely to beat Trump first and more progressive "this is how I really feel" candidate second; I think a good chunk of Warren's issue right now is that she is everyone's second-favorite candidate, which is the absolute worst place to be in a winner-take-all contest.

― totally unnecessary bewbz of exploitation (DJP), Wednesday, February 12, 2020 2:17 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I posted this on the Bernie thread earlier. It's from the Quinnipiac poll from the other day; I have to imagine NH results will move some of these numbers around. (Also, since it's a little confusing, the 1st-choice candidates are in the columns, and the 2nd-choice candidates are in the rows.)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQi5wnnXUAIVEt5?format=jpg&name=medium

ha, I still got it *brushes imaginary dirt off shoulders*

also lol at "if not Buttigieg, then Gabbard"

like, wtf are you smoking

"If I can't have the gay candidate, I want the candidate who backed conversion therapy because no one should get to be attracted to their own gender if Pete can't be POTUS"

They want someone young presumably

Gabbard is the only other candidate under 40

Or they’re ex military, and don’t trust a commander in chief who isn’t a veteran.

I think the latter is more likely actually

I think a lot of them are supporting their chosen candidate because they like his/her personality or think he/she is "electable" or whatever

bingo

I have political conversations with a lot of people and it's amazing how many of them have basically no understanding of what each candidate stands for. they think of Bernie as the "free stuff" guy who looks like Larry David, Pete as a smart young upstart, Warren as *sigh* "Pocahontas", Biden & Bloomberg as they guys they know who they think have the best shot of beating Trump. the one argument I've heard in favor of Bloomberg is that "he's everything Trump wants to be and that will piss him off", and it's like...yeah...Trump does seem particularly bothered by Bloomberg, but man it must be nice to only care about politics on such a surface level

SMONE ELSE

the theory (one i also sorta buy) is that much like trump had the largest base in a highly divided field and the opponents didn't consolidate quickly enough to offer an alternative b4 the delegate lead got out of hand bernie is potentially benefiting from a similar set of circumstances

^^^this is what I was getting at many posts ago

xps

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-leads-all-democratic-candidates-support-non-white-voters-new-polls-show-1486807

Xp sure I think that is a factor. But also the narrative that Bernie isn’t actually winning, it’s just that the centrists haven’t settled on a candidate yet is a spin being used by people who wish to undermine his apparent support. We don’t know he would be performing in a one on race against Pete or Bloomberg or whoever.

That being said I wish his margin had been higher in NH. But i think he looks strong going into the next contests.

the anti-union Bernie flyer is definitely a bad sign in NV

er anti-Bernie Union flyer!

sorry
big difference

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-leads-all-democratic-candidates-support-non-white-voters-new-polls-show-1486807

But...but Pete has convinced me that Bernie is a divider!

https://cdn.officestationery.co.uk/products/295179-500/5-Star-Office-A4-Subject-Dividers-Multipunched-Man.jpg

he's a trapper keeper

so Romney has lots of binders full of Bernie? I'm confused

Culinary’s refusal to help Biden, the major candidate most aligned with their healthcare concerns, tells everything about how his campaign is seen privately. Their mailers seem furious their position is left to such a weak candidate.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) February 11, 2020

remember when everybody was so sure he was the de facto candidate

this is why it's pointless to grouse before you're even in the election year yet

This thread today has been like Space Mountain

Dark and rough on your back?

certain to malfunction and result in 4 fatalities on March 13, 2020?

that's dark man

My nieces love Space Mountain, and they'll love this thread!

fun fact: space mountain actually only goes 28 miles per hour, tops