Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

Antiabortion Democrats can vote for a Republican, eat shit

Including you morbs.

wha?

I am 100% fine with str8 ppl keeping reproduction to a minimum

Misremembering a comment or two I guess, also how dare I imply you’re “a Democrat” right

ie i am neither antiabortion OR a Democrat

tho if i had to choose one...

lol xp

oh i have 'evolved' since i started posing here

after all i usta be a Catholic who believed we had souls

Meanwhile in Nevada:

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would “end Culinary Healthcare” if elected president, according to a new one-pager the politically powerful Culinary Union is posting back of house on the Las Vegas Strip.

The new flyer, a copy of which was obtained by The Nevada Independent, compares the positions on health care, “good jobs” and immigration of six Democratic presidential hopefuls who have come to the union’s headquarters over the last two months to court its members. But the primary difference outlined in the document, which is being distributed in both English and Spanish, is in the candidates’ positions on health care, taking particular aim at the Vermont senator over his Medicare-for-all policy, which would establish a single-payer, government run health insurance system.

The flyer says Sanders, if elected president, would “end Culinary Healthcare,” “require ‘Medicare For All,’” and “lower drug prices.” The language it uses to describe the position of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who also supports Medicare for all after a transition period, is much gentler: “‘Medicare for All,’” “replace Culinary Healthcare after 3-year transition or at end of collective bargaining agreements,” and “lower drug prices.”

An interesting thread from Rachel Bitecofer, the "there are no swing voters" lady:

Here is the basic fact of where Sanders is in the race. He has won NH by a narrow 2pts, can claim a partial (total vote) win in IA primarily due to no results being reported. These were in 2 overwhelmingly white states. IOW: these were weaker than expected performances. HOWEVER,

— Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌 (@RachelBitecofer) February 12, 2020

the ever-glorious commenters

I like to think that's the only tweet, with no followups, as a tribute to this:

STEPHEN A: Skip I want to ADDRESS this issue.
[BAYLESS nods]
You KNOW I am sensitive to the Holocaust
BAYLESS: Absolutely
STEPHEN A: BUT!

— Yakuza boss rewatching doraemon (@Hegelbon) July 25, 2014

Deval Patrick out!

what a bloodbath

I basically agree w/ the bitecofer thread and I also can't imagine how anyone thinks that sanders is gonna be in a strong position to actually win the general election if it does play out that way

listen to "The Doc"

I also can't imagine how anyone thinks that sanders is gonna be in a strong position to actually win the general election if it does play out that way

"Sanders 2020: It's Me Or Donald Trump. You Pick."

I’d have more confidence in that strategy had it worked in 2016

Re the bitecofer thread: this is why I'm terrified of Warren dropping out and immediately being courted by a moderate campaign offering VP and they start campaigning with her front and center (or straight up announcing it in the primary a la fiorentina)

That could be all it takes to ultimately tank bernie

Hilary Clinton had negative sentiment around her that we all brushed aside for its absurdity, and also she got more votes

I think Sanders has a decent shot of making a hopeful emotional appeal, not just being the Anti-Trump. eg, "do this for someone else." Which most people won't do, but they might think they are.

Confirmed via Klobuchar spox @carliewaibel: It's "Klomentum" not "Klobmentum"

— Nick Corasaniti (@NYTnickc) February 12, 2020

https://www.dict.cc/?s=klo

i certainly feel some klomentum after my morning coffee

Its funny to me she had to mention how white the two states sanders has won are as if he doesn’t have an incredibly diverse coalition polling very well with latino and black voters. While his main rival so far for older black voters just completely collapsed.

I’d have more confidence in that strategy had it worked in 2016

In 2016 there was a plausible (if you'd been struck on the head by falling masonry) "maybe he'll rise to the office, maybe an outsider is just what we need" argument. And, as has been mentioned ad fucking nauseam, he lost except for 77,000 votes sprinkled across three Midwestern states that nobody is taking for granted this time. Trump 2020 is not Trump 2016, and the only way to completely doom yourself is to act like this is a rerun of four years ago.

But in general I don’t think we can just add up all the centrist support and compare it Bernie’s many people arent really aware of the ideological breakdown in stark manichean contrast. They are just as likely to be voting because they like a candidate’s personality or think they are Electable.

Absolutely the case, think Bernard does well as second choice for Biden voters in particular

Centrist candidate doesnt necessarily mean centrist voter, its more complex than that

I’d have more confidence in that strategy had it worked in 2016

― iatee, Wednesday, February 12, 2020 11:50 AM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

The trick, as I recall, is largely about encouraging voters to actually cast votes.

I mean there's an argument to be made that non-voting dems pretty much handed Trump the election. Turnout was not great.

In 2016 there was a plausible (if you'd been struck on the head by falling masonry) "maybe he'll rise to the office, maybe an outsider is just what we need" argument. And, as has been mentioned ad fucking nauseam, he lost except for 77,000 votes sprinkled across three Midwestern states that nobody is taking for granted this time. Trump 2020 is not Trump 2016, and the only way to completely doom yourself is to act like this is a rerun of four years ago.

it’s not a rerun because we’re running against a very strong economy, an incumbent w/ strong party support, all of his scandals have already ‘broken’ and can’t pierce his floor. trump’s awfulness has been normalized for a lot of America.

very strong economy if yer in the stock market

but keep spreading that sunshine

a very strong economy

A very strong stock market. These are not the same thing.

an incumbent w/ strong party support

The remaining Republicans are a death cult, yes. But the number of people willing to identify themselves as Republicans has been spiraling downward since January 2017.

all of his scandals have already ‘broken’ and can’t pierce his floor

This is simply not true.

trump’s awfulness has been normalized for a lot of America.

People are booing this motherfucker at sporting events. Donald Trump doesn't just have a low approval rating. People hate him.

Yes, I think it's more correct to say that Trump's behavior has normalized the behavior of aberrant people who already pretty much behaved like Trump and now just feel that their id has been unleashed.

A very strong stock market.

low unemployment + wage growth

Party support from those who didn't change party affiliation on account of Trump

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/10/trumps-economic-scorecard-3-years-in-office/

Bitcofer, in her second & third tweet:

due to the now trifurcation + of the moderate wing of the party Sanders' small plurality of the high 20s is becoming the winning margin & until & unless that changes down the stretch, he will likely become the nominee. ... This is exactly what happened to the mod faction in 2016

By which she means moderate Republicans, who failed to unite to stop Trump. Who, as we all know, went on to win the presidency by campaigning as the antithesis of moderation. Which seems like an odd analogy to use as an argument against the viability of Sanders.

‘The economy in 2020 is extremely strong’ is not some controversial statement - if you disagree with it because ‘actually, it still sucks to be poor’ then we’re just not talking about the same thing. If you think that the majority of people in the country can’t notice the difference between an economy w/ 10% unemployment and an economy w/ 3.5% unemployment, idk what to say. the contrast is real, and the contrast was recent.

xp

why it's almost as if she was arguing for the viability of sanders

xp

agree that Sanders' run this time around is mirroring Trump's in 2016 and is currently likely to have a similar result. The "moderate"/"sensible" wing of the party doesn't have a strong candidate to rally around, Sanders meanwhile has the enthusiasm of the base and could use it to skate to the nomination with a plurality

xps

Every incumbent President prior to Trump who won re-election with a strong economy had a net positive approval rating.

Trump would be the first to do so with a net negative unless he rebounds.

But history has shown with him that declines and rebounds are always temporary. His post-Mueller rebound was miniscule and short-lived

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/morgan-stanley-dont-assume-a-strong-economy-means-a-trump-reelection.html

lolol

“It’s entirely possible that it’s a coincidence,” Zezas also offered, referring to any such correlation between reelection and the economy.

entirely possible!

should Sanders get the nom there's gonna be a lot of stories about "worried investors" and how the market will tank 3000 points the instant he gets sworn in and I'm guessing that will not help

a lot of stories about "worried investors" and how the market will tank 3000 points the instant he gets sworn in

The usual FUD-mongering: fear, uncertainty & doubt.

one of the earlier instances of the veil dropping for me regarding the 'dispassionate' forces of the market was watching a parade of CEOs and Wall Street goons, after getting bailed out and then subsequently soothed and stroked by Obama and Tim fucking Geithner, come on tv and wring their hands about the "fear, uncertainty and doubt" they had about the administration.

and that's when i realized the market might not be rational, but it's almost definitely racist.

so yeah, there will be a ton of doomsday scenarios floated. and every person who writes one in an op ed section or spouts one on cable tv should be spat on in public for the rest of their natural lives.

because the market is racist, irrational, greedy, emotional, paranoid etc. there will definitely be a dip in the stock market if/when Bernie wins. This will have negative consequences that ripple throughout the economy. I don't see how this prediction is contestable - capitalists are scared of Bernie and will react accordingly.

There’s an incongruity among some Sanders supporters where he’s simultaneously the best shot for radical structural economic change and also anyone afraid of radical structural economic change from Sanders is an idiot fear monger. There’s gaslighting going on but I can’t tell by whom.

I think you may be hallucinating Mordy

Good economic times can be the best times to implement social democratic programs. Might be good for Dems to stress this, although it would also be giving Trump some credit so idk.

a Sanders presidency would be unequivocally bad for certain sectors, no doubt

How many Sanders supporters do you know of who don't want *substantial* structural economic change? "Radical" is a loaded adjective that means different things from nation to nation and era to era, so I'm not using that.

xxp