Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

She should stay in as long as she wants, she's running for president and we've had two primaries.

But shame on her for this "my way or the highway" line, what cynical horseshit from a supposed firebrand.

yeah like c'mon you're going to have waaaay more influence in a sanders admin than a klob or fuckin Pete.

She had a fighting chance at Bernie's lane and chickened out. That was just dumb campaigning.

But going after him now for maintaining his own line is pretty crappy.

I think it was pretty clear nobody but Sanders had a chance in the Sanders lane...

That's not true, the two of them were seen as more or less competing for the same votes all year

iirc she led him until she blinked on m4a

yes

Plenty of people (including many itt) preferred her to Bernie and she let herself drift before winning their confidence

and a good thing, too, better now than 2021

She went for a broader coalition, it worked for a while, she had more votes than Sanders. She got under a lot of fire as soon as she outpolled Sanders, before any of the M4A moves, it's a revision of history to claim otherwise. And Sanders has only gone up, like, 7% in the polls as she has faltered, there was a lot of overlap between Warren and the centrists as well.

Also, when she is talking about a turn in recent weeks, isn't it more likely she is aiming at least as much at Biden? He was the one who went seriously negative at Buttigieg, after all.

She was also losing votes before M4A, when Buttigieg began rising. A big part of the story is the insane centrists being uncomfortable with the wealth tax, etc. Which is a good reason to vote Sanders instead, btw, these people are beyond reason.

fwiw I don't agree EW should drop out

but what was "a plan for that" other than "I have the answers"? it's what candidates do.

Warren’s slipping is far more a function of TV news either excluding or turning against her, than it is her whiffing the campaign. Policy >>> personality, but she has the best suite of policies in the game, and is pretty great at explaining them when she’s given the chance.

Bernie’s a better campaigner in nearly every ways, but it’s not a flaw of her as a politician that instead of repeating rousing platforms, she actually gets enthusiastic about the basic details of her proposals. Especially as it’s bcz she knows how they work.

I do wonder to what extent it just boils down to people getting to the moment of truth in the voting booth and thinking she can't beat Trump.

Fred: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#!

You can see their trajectories cross just after she bailed on M4A

Which means she started falling a month and a half before that.

Right as Buttigieg starts rising. It really really really proves my point?

but what was "a plan for that"

It’s not like she’s keeping them secret:
https://elizabethwarren.com/plans

there was a lot of overlap between Warren and the centrists as well

i think this is fair and why i initially supported her, thinking that she would be heralded as the unity candidate. sadly it seemed like the lib/ Dem 'establishment' went after her as too far left (very dumb move), and as sic noted, TV news either excluding or turning against her.

Heck, it takes Sanders a month to rise above the level he is at when their trajectories cross, if it's because Warren/Sanders voters are moving he should have benefited a lot more, no?

xpost
sorry going to need another "really" to convince me

it’s not a flaw of her as a politician that instead of repeating rousing platforms, she actually gets enthusiastic about the basic details of her proposals

This is not why she tanked. She tanked because she blinked, calling her convictions into question

iirc she led him until she blinked on m4a

sorry going to need another "really" to convince me

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), 12. februar 2020 15:14 (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

Fair point. Really.

v silly pasting there, sic

xxp talk about revisionist history...her descent started when she repeatedly, insistently dodged questions about taxes re: M4A. She looked intimidated, and people started peeling off.

it me

I mean not that ilx is any barometer but I don't think it's misrepresentative, you can go back and see it happening day by day

I think this is akin to "the Dean Scream tanked his campaign" which completely ignores that the scream happened because... his campaign was tanking because pundits vastly inflated the importance of the support of the Extremely Online in 2004

I think it's fair to say that Warren's support started to erode when her M4A proposals began including longer timelines and compromises but I don't think you can say that's the only reason her campaign stalled or that it is purely because progressives chose Sanders; moderates also started choosing Buttigieg.

xxp talk about revisionist history...her descent started when she repeatedly, insistently dodged questions about taxes re: M4A. She looked intimidated, and people started peeling off.

ilx is not representative, lol. there's only Warren or Sanders voters on here.

I would totally vote for Biden (to be on the adjacent town's school board)

Are there any people who've moved from Warren to Sanders here? If so why?

Yeah djp 100% otm

Okay not for the school board thing, he would be a bad influence for the children

haha I was gonna say

Not a voter, but I would have voted for Sanders instead of Warren, yeah.

but I don't think you can say that's the only reason her campaign stalled or that it is purely because progressives chose Sanders; moderates also started choosing Buttigieg

I agree but I think these are connected...when a candidate's base erodes, the shine tends to come off for the greater population too

She tanked because she blinked, calling her convictions into question

This wasn’t blinking imo: she repeatedly refused to get snookered into a “we’re gonna raise your taxes” statement by bullshit TV news hosts who were looking for a soundbite. She thought she’d get the chance to make a case, but prob shoulda bulldozed with “what’s gonna happen is overall costs will come down” or “we’re gonna force big business to pay their taxes & level the playing field.” Bernie’s p good at judo in these situations; Warren made the mistake of treating TV news in good faith.

It’s also not a blink to say that it’ll take years to implement M4A - it will!

DJP otm

In that Quinnipiac poll from the other day, Warren supporters' second choice was 33% Sanders, 25% Buttigieg, 8% Biden, 7% Klobuchar.

The idea that centrists would turn their backs on Warren because she went to the center instead of left seems kinda self-evidently absurd?

she was the figure out the details person not the ideologue.

How pragmatic is it actually to have detailed plans for the implementation of policies when the system seems to largely be built around protracted negotiations/compromises/battles between the executive and multiple factions in two houses of Congress?

xps

yes to iatee

Are there any people who've moved from Warren to Sanders here? If so why?

Still like ‘em both, still hope they end up on the same ticket, still wish they were each a lot younger.

my total layperson's guess is that centrist support for Warren was pretty soft, and when she was no longer a frontrunner, they bailed.

Are there any people who've moved from Warren to Sanders here? If so why?

Still like ‘em both, still hope they end up on the same ticket, still wish they were each a lot younger.

+1

How pragmatic is it actually to have detailed plans for the implementation of policies when the system seems to largely be built around protracted negotiations/compromises/battles between the executive and multiple factions in two houses of Congress?

― With considerable charm, you still have made a choice (Sund4r), Wednesday, February 12, 2020 8:38 AM (forty-seven seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

-Donald Trump

I mean, no offense, but unless you're proposing the institution of a monarchy I don't quite understand the question.

How pragmatic is it actually to have detailed plans for the implementation of policies when the system seems to largely be built around protracted negotiations/compromises/battles between the executive and multiple factions in two houses of Congress?

You need to clearly define your end goal and prove there is a path to it before going into negotiation otherwise you will end up ceding everything you're trying to do (cf Obama)

my total layperson's guess is that centrist support for Warren was pretty soft, and when she was no longer a frontrunner, they bailed.

― A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will), Wednesday, 12 February 2020 14:40 (five minutes ago) link

This sounds right to me -- she was the preferred candidate of pragmatic center-left types who believed that Bernie's popularity signaled the need for a lefter than usual candidate (but she was still an acceptable compromise compared to Bernie).

Feel like a lot of the rise and fall of various candidates is about elite-driven media narratives, to which voters take cues. Most voters were not rationally analyzing Warren's opinion on M4A, but they did see people on MSNBC say that she fumbled at a crucial moment and looked weak. (And that narrative took hold in large part because she was leading in the polls at the time and thus prime for a fall.)